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Draghi Talks Down EUR. Semiannual Yellen Testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday. Full Data Calendar

Draghi Talks Down EUR. Semiannual Yellen Testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday. Full Data Calendar
July 15, 2014 00:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Markets are moving cautiously back to a risk-on posture after concern about a possible contagion from the Portuguese banking situation  has diminished. Long the EURUSD might be becoming a risk on trade, but we are by no means certain about this. EURUSD 1.3600 is its current benchmark price.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are steady to higher.   Yields on the European periphery are lower. The German 10-yr bund is 1.21%, 0bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.61%  +1bp. Odds still favor a +25bp BOE short-term rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.54%,  +2bp.
  • Equities closed higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are up. U.S. shares are higher as well.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


    HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Bank of Japan, GB- CPI & RPI-X, DE- ZEW, US- Empire PMI, Retail Sales, Yellen

    • Late in the day, ECB President Draghi warned that an appreciated exchange rate" is a risk to the  sustainability of the EZ recovery. We warned about this earlier. After his comments, the EURUSD tested 1.3600.
    • The focus on Tuesday will be the first leg of two days of Congressional testimony by Janet Yellen. We expect her to maintain her dovish tone but to warn that at some point the central bank will be forced to start to raise rates as policy starts to  be normalized. On Tuesday she appears before the Senate, while on Wednesday she goes before the House.
    • EZ Industrial Output fell -1.10% mo/mo in May.. This was slightly better than forecast. Nevertheless, it was the largest monthly decline since September 2012.
    • Tuesday also features key U.K. inflation data, the German ZEW Survey and U.S. Retail Sales data.
    • Wednesday will see Chinese GDP,  the U.K. Employment report and the latest Bank of Canada Policy Decision.
    • On Thursday, final EZ CPI data for June will be released. Housing Starts and Permits are due from the U.S. along with Industrial Production and sentiment data. On Friday, Canadian CPI and the preliminary July University of Michigan Survey are due.  
    • See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.
    Weekly Trading Planner

    TUESDAY July 15, 2014
    JP Bank of Japan
    GB CPI /RPIX
    US Retail Sales
    FRB Yellen Testimony
    NZ 2Q CPI
    WEDNESDAY July 16, 2014
    GB Employment 
    CA BOC Rates+MPR
    THURSDAY July 17, 2014
    EZ Final HICP
    US Initial Claims
    US House Starts /Permits
    US TIC Net Flows
    US Ind Prod
    FRB Beige Book  
    FRIDAY July 18, 2014
    CA BOC CPI
    US U Mich prelim


    FOREX CALENDAR
    Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
    14/07/14 19:30 A EZ Draghi n/a n/a
    15/07/14 4:30 A JP Bank of Japan 0.10% 0.10%
    15/07/14 8:30 A GB CPI mm -0.10% -0.10%
    15/07/14 8:30 A GB CPI yy 1.60% 1.50%
    15/07/14 8:30 A GB RPI-X 2.50% 2.50%
    15/07/14 8:30 B GB C-Out PPI y 1.00% 1.00%
    15/07/14 9:00 B DE ZEW Conditions 67.4 67.7
    15/07/14 9:00 B DE ZEW Expectations 28.4 29.8
    15/07/14 12:30 C US Imp Prices Feb 0.50% 0.10%
    15/07/14 12:30 B US Empire PMI 17 19.3
    15/07/14 12:30 A US Ret Sales May 0.60% 0.30%
    15/07/14 12:30 A US Sales x-auto< 0.60% 0.10%
    15/07/14 12:30 A US Sales X-auto&gas n/a n/a
    15/07/14 14:00 A FRB Yellen n/a n/a
    15/07/14 14:00 C US Bus Inv 0.60% 0.60%
    15/07/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
    15/07/14 23:45 A NZ 2Q CPI qq n/a 0.30%
    15/07/14 23:45 A NZ 2Q CPI yy n/a 1.60%
    16/07/14 0:00 WEDNESDAY
    16/07/14 2:00 CN GDP yy 2Q14 7.40% 7.40%
    16/07/14 8:30 A GB ILO Unemploy 6.50% 6.60%
    16/07/14 8:30 A GB Avg Earn 3myy 0.50% 0.70%
    16/07/14 8:30 A GB Claimant Count k Mar -27 -27.4
    16/07/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
    16/07/14 14:00 A CA BOC Rates+MPR 1.00% 1.00%
    16/07/14 14:00 A FRB Yellen n/a n/a
    16/07/14 14:30 A US EIA Distillate mn n/a -2.4
    16/07/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a 0.58
    16/07/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a 0.23
    16/07/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 91.60%
    17/07/14 0:00 THURSDAY
    17/07/14 9:00 A EZ HICP mm 0.10% -0.10%
    17/07/14 9:00 A EZ HICP yy 0.50% 0.50%
    17/07/14 9:00 A EZ HICP core y 0.80% 0.80%
    17/07/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a n/a
    17/07/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 310 304
    17/07/14 12:30 B US PPI core 0.20% -0.10%
    17/07/14 12:30 B US PPI Apr 0.20% -0.20%
    17/07/14 12:30 A US House Starts 1020 1001
    17/07/14 12:30 A US House Permits 1045 1005
    17/07/14 13:00 A US TIC Net Flows $b n/a n/a
    17/07/14 13:00 B US TIC L-T Flows Mar n/a -24.2
    17/07/14 13:15 A US Ind Prod 0.30% 0.60%
    17/07/14 13:15 A US Cap Util 79.30% 79.10%
    17/07/14 14:00 B US NAHB Index 50 49
    17/07/14 14:00 A US Philly Fed 16 17.8
    17/07/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 93
    17/07/14 18:00 A FRB Beige Book n/a n/a
    17/07/14 23:50 A JP BOJ Minutes n/a n/a


    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

    See the
    FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.


    John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, is a founding partner of Global-View.com,  and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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Fri 24 Nov
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US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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