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U.K. Inflation Data Hot. German ZEW Disappoints. Yellen Testifies Tuesday and Wednesday

U.K. Inflation Data Hot. German ZEW Disappoints. Yellen Testifies Tuesday and Wednesday
July 15, 2014 09:030 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Markets are in a mixed risk posture early Tuesday after ECB President Draghi again fretted over the strength of the EUR on Monday.  Long the EURUSD might be becoming a risk on trade, but we are by no means certain about this. EURUSD 1.3600 is its current benchmark price.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower.  Yields on the European periphery are mixed. The German 10-yr bund is 1.19%, -2bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.60%  -1bp. Odds still favor a +25bp BOE short-term rate hike by yearend, especially with inflation rising.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.53%,  -2bp.
  • Equities closed higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are mixed. U.S. share futures are steady.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS:US- Empire PMI, Retail Sales, Yellen

    • July German ZEW data were weaker than expected. We have been seeing signs of a weakening of the German economy recently. These data could be a cause for additional worry at the ECB.
    • June U.K. inflation data were hotter than expected and could put intensify pressure on the BOE to tighten later this year.
    • See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.
    • Late Monday ECB President Draghi warned an "appreciated exchange rate" risks the sustainability of the EZ recovery..
    • The focus on Tuesday will be the first leg of two days of Congressional testimony by Janet Yellen. We expect her to maintain her dovish tone but to warn that at some point the central bank will be forced to start to raise rates as policy starts to  be normalized. On Tuesday she appears before the Senate, while on Wednesday she goes before the House.
    • Tuesday also features key U.S. Retail Sales data.
    • Wednesday will see Chinese GDP,  the U.K. Employment report and the latest Bank of Canada Policy Decision.
    • On Thursday, final EZ CPI data for June will be released. Housing Starts and Permits are due from the U.S. along with Industrial Production and sentiment data. On Friday, Canadian CPI and the preliminary July University of Michigan Survey are due.  
    • See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.
    Weekly Trading Planner

    TUESDAY July 15, 2014
    US Retail Sales
    FRB Yellen Testimony
    NZ 2Q CPI
    WEDNESDAY July 16, 2014
    GB Employment 
    CA BOC Rates+MPR
    THURSDAY July 17, 2014
    EZ Final HICP
    US Initial Claims
    US House Starts /Permits
    US TIC Net Flows
    US Ind Prod
    FRB Beige Book  
    FRIDAY July 18, 2014
    US U Mich prelim

    Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
    15/07/14 12:30 C US Imp Prices Feb 0.50% 0.10%
    15/07/14 12:30 B US Empire PMI 17 19.3
    15/07/14 12:30 A US Ret Sales May 0.60% 0.30%
    15/07/14 12:30 A US Sales x-auto< 0.60% 0.10%
    15/07/14 12:30 A US Sales X-auto&gas n/a n/a
    15/07/14 14:00 A FRB Yellen n/a n/a
    15/07/14 14:00 C US Bus Inv 0.60% 0.60%
    15/07/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
    15/07/14 23:45 A NZ 2Q CPI qq n/a 0.30%
    15/07/14 23:45 A NZ 2Q CPI yy n/a 1.60%
    16/07/14 0:00 WEDNESDAY
    16/07/14 2:00 CN GDP yy 2Q14 7.40% 7.40%
    16/07/14 8:30 A GB ILO Unemploy 6.50% 6.60%
    16/07/14 8:30 A GB Avg Earn 3myy 0.50% 0.70%
    16/07/14 8:30 A GB Claimant Count k Mar -27 -27.4
    16/07/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
    16/07/14 14:00 A CA BOC Rates+MPR 1.00% 1.00%
    16/07/14 14:00 A FRB Yellen n/a n/a
    16/07/14 14:30 A US EIA Distillate mn n/a -2.4
    16/07/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a 0.58
    16/07/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a 0.23
    16/07/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 91.60%
    17/07/14 0:00 THURSDAY
    17/07/14 9:00 A EZ HICP mm 0.10% -0.10%
    17/07/14 9:00 A EZ HICP yy 0.50% 0.50%
    17/07/14 9:00 A EZ HICP core y 0.80% 0.80%
    17/07/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a n/a
    17/07/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 310 304
    17/07/14 12:30 B US PPI core 0.20% -0.10%
    17/07/14 12:30 B US PPI Apr 0.20% -0.20%
    17/07/14 12:30 A US House Starts 1020 1001
    17/07/14 12:30 A US House Permits 1045 1005
    17/07/14 13:00 A US TIC Net Flows $b n/a n/a
    17/07/14 13:00 B US TIC L-T Flows Mar n/a -24.2
    17/07/14 13:15 A US Ind Prod 0.30% 0.60%
    17/07/14 13:15 A US Cap Util 79.30% 79.10%
    17/07/14 14:00 B US NAHB Index 50 49
    17/07/14 14:00 A US Philly Fed 16 17.8
    17/07/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 93
    17/07/14 18:00 A FRB Beige Book n/a n/a
    17/07/14 23:50 A JP BOJ Minutes n/a n/a
    18/07/14 0:00 FRIDAY
    18/07/14 12:30 A CA BOC CPI Apr y n/a 1.70%
    18/07/14 12:30 A CA CPI mm 0.10% 0.50%
    18/07/14 12:30 A CA CPI yy 2.40% 2.30%
    18/07/14 13:55 A US U Mich prelim 83.2 82.5
    18/07/14 14:00 B US Lead Ind 0.50% 0.50%
    18/07/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

    See the
    FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

    John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, is a founding partner of,  and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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