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Tuesday July 15, 2014 - 15:20:36 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Markets Accentuate the Negative in Yellen Testimony


Tue, 15 Jul 2014 11:07 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales w/e July 11th: w/w +0.1%; y/y: 4.5%
- (PL) Poland Jun CPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.2%e
- (RU) Russia Jun Industrial Production Y/Y: 0.4% v 2.0%e
- (US) Jun Advance Retail Sales M/M: 0.2% v 0.6%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Retail Sales Control Group: 0.6% v 0.5%e
- (US) July Empire Manufacturing: 25.60 v 17.00e
- (US) Jun Import Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.1%e
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e July 11th: +4.1% y/y, July MTD: -0.1% m/m
- (PL) Poland Jun YTD Budget Balance Level (PLN): -25.4B v -22.5B prior; Budget Balance Performance: 53.4% v 47.3% prior
- (BE) Belgium May Trade Balance: v 63.5M prior
- (CA) Canada Jun Existing Home Sales M/M: 0.8% v 5.9% prior
- (US) May Business Inventories: 0.5% v 0.6%e

- Some decent earnings sent equities higher this morning before the bell and even helped European indices recovery from the weak July Eurozone and Germany ZEW surveys. However markets have dropped into the red after Yellen began testifying. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.1%, the S&P500 is down 0.25% and the Nasdaq is down 0.70%

- The headline retail sales number looked weak but all of the important bits were as strong as or stronger than anticipated. The shortfall in overall retail sales was due to a 0.3% decline in reported auto dealer sales. The Empire State manufacturing survey rose to 25.6 in July, up from 19.3 in June, and widely beat expectations.

- Fed Chair Yellen is testifying before the Senate this morning and more or less reiterating all her standard policy positions. Surprising nobody, Yellen said rates would be more accommodative if the economic performance is disappointing and could increase sooner if the labor market continues to improve faster than expected. The one interesting note came in the text of the Fed's official Monetary Policy Report to Congress, in which Yellen warned that small cap biotech and social media valuations are a bit high relative to historical norms. Shares of FB, TWTR and a few other momentum names came off a bit on the remarks.

- After holding pretty steady overnight, EUR/USD dropped from the lower end of 1.3600 to test below 1.3565 after Yellen started talking. USD/JPY dropped to 101.44 then bounced to 101.75 on Yellen's testimony. Note that crude continued its slow-motion collapse, with WTI dropping below $100 for the first time since mid May.

- Both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs beat earnings and revenue expectations in second-quarter results. However, there were problems with numbers from JPMorgan's, where profits fell 8% y/y and revenue declined 3% y/y. Fixed income and equity markets revenue fell 15% y/y, although executives have been warning about these trends for some time. Goldman's report looked much better, with profits up 5% y/y, as a 15% y/y gain in investment banking revenue offset a 10% decline in FICC revenues. Shares of JPM are up 4% this morning, while GS rose 1.5% in the premarket but has been losing ground in midmorning trade.

- Last night, refiner Valero offered second-quarter guidance that fell well short of consensus expectations, driving shares of VLO and the other independent refiners into the red. Trading in the refiners has been choppy this morning, but shares are off their lows. Valero blamed the hit to earnings on charges related to accounting issues, and noted that refining income and volumes would be higher y/y.

***Looking Ahead**
- BRICS Summit begins 2-day meeting in Fortaleza , Brazil
- 11:30 (IL) Israel Jun CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.5%e v 1.0% prior
- 14:00 (US) Fed Discount Rate Minutes
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 27.4% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
-18:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Overnight Rate Target by 25bps to 3.75%
- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Jun Unemployment Rate: No est v 3.7% prior
- 22:00 (CN) China Jun YTD Urban Fixed Assets Y/Y: 17.2%e v 17.2% prior
- 22:00 (CN) China Jun Retail Sales Y/Y: 12.5%e v 12.5% prior; Retail Sales YTD Y/Y: 12.2%e v 12.1% prior
- 22:00 (CN) China Jun Industrial Production Y/Y: 9.0%e v 8.8% prior; Industrial Production YTD Y/Y: 8.8%e v 8.7% prior
- 22:00 (CN) China Q2 GDP Q/Q: 1.8%e v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 7.4%e v 7.4% prior; GDP YTD Y/Y: 7.4%e v 7.4% prior

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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