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Wednesday July 16, 2014 - 10:13:58 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK earnings data highlights the extent of slack remaining; potentially easing pressure on the BOE to hike rates


Wed, 16 Jul 2014 5:15 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Key Chinese data slightly beats expectations (Q2 GDP Q/Q: 2.0% v 1.8%e; Y/Y: 7.5% v 7.4%e) and Jun Industrial Production Y/Y: 9.2% v 9.0%e
- USD has receive renewed support following Yellen's Senate testimony
- UK jobless claims improve for the 20th straight month but hourly earnings softness shows the extent of slack remaining

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (ES) Spain May Trade Balance: -1.8B v -2.2B prior
- (CZ) Czech Jun PPI Industrial M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v 0.0%e
- (CZ) Czech May Export Price Index Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.1% prior; Import Price Index Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.8% prior
- (EU) ECB 950M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 600.0M prior; 20.6B parked in deposit facility vs. 23.1B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (IT) Italy May Total Trade Balance: 3.7B v 3.5B prior; Trade Balance EU: 1.2B v 1.9B prior
- (UK) Jun Jobless Claims Change: -36.3K v -27.0Ke; Claimant Count Rate: 3.1% v 3.1%e
- (UK) May Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 0.3% v 0.5%e; Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/Y: 0.7% (record low) v 0.8%e
- (UK) May ILO Unemployment Rate: 6.5% v 6.5%e; Employment Change 3M/3M: +254K v +243Ke

- (EU) Euro Zone May Trade Balance (Seasonally Adj): 15.3B v 16.0Be; Trade Balance NSA (unadj): 15.4B v 16.5Be
- (CH) Swiss July Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations Survey: 0.1 v 4.8 prior
- (MY) Malaysia Jun CPI Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.3%e

Fixed Income:
- (EU) ECB allotted $75.0 in 7-day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.59% vs. $0.0M prior (first allotment since Sept)


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities***
Indices [Stoxx50 +1.4%
, FTSE 100 +1% at 6,775, DAX +1.3% at 9,841, CAC-40 +1.5% at 4,370, IBEX-35 +1.4% at 10,624, FTSE MIB +1.7% at 20,777, SMI +0.9% at 8,649, S&P 500 Futures +0.3% at 1,974]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open higher following Tuesday's losses as shares of Portugal's BES and Portugal Telecom rise, Chinese equitiesend lower following roughly in line GDP data, Portugal Telecom/Oi restructure merger agreement on Espirito Santo situation, Banks rise following gains in BES and earnings from Goldman and JPMorgan, ASML declines after Q2 results and guidance, Fed's comments on technology companies' valuations in focus, GTECH to acquire IGT for $4.7B, French probe weighs on shares of Royal Mail and TNT Express, US corporate earnings (Intel above ests, Yahoo below), US morning earnings (Bank of America, Blackrock, St. Jude, Abbott Labs, PNC, US Bancorp), European high yield corporate bond market remains quiet

By Sector
- Financials
[Banco Espirito Santo BES.PT +13% (capital raise speculation), British Land BLND.UK +1% (Q1 occupancy +50bps)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Beiersdorf BEI.DE +1% (broker commentary)]
- Telecom [Portugal Telecom PTC.PT +5.5% (revised merger agreement with Oi)
- Technology [Infineon IFX.DE +1% (Intel earnings); ASML ASML.NL -1% (cautious Q3 outlook)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Rio Tinto RIO.UK +1.5% (record Q2 iron ore production); K+S SDF.DE -1% (broker commentary)]
- Industrials [Meggitt MGGT.UK +8% (takeover speculation); TNT Express TNTE.NL -2.5% (French probe), Royal Mail RMG.UK -2% (French probe)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Energy +1.3%, Utilities +1%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +1%, Industrials +0.9%, Telecom +0.8%, Financials +0.7%, Consumer Cyclical +0.8%, Basic Materials +0.5%; Technology -0.2%]

Speakers:
- Poland Labor Min Kosiniak:
Unemployment Rate seen near 11.0% in coming months (**Note: May Unemployment Rate came in at 12.5%)
- South Africa Metalworker's Union (NUMSA) stated that it would continue to strike and called for sympathy strikes in other industries. It announce it would hold marches later in month on July 24th
- BoJ: Demand exceeded supply for the first time since Q2 2008, output gap at +0.6% Q1

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD received a small boost on Tuesday after Fed' Yellen's testimony was viewed as slightly less dovish in tone
- The EUR/USD remained locked with its 2 big-figure range that it has held since mid-May. The key support in the pair remains the 1.3503 post ECB low in June and the 1.3477 January low. Any move below those levels could ignite downside momentum
- GBP was initially softer following a slew of job-related data. UK jobless claims improved for the 20th straight month but hourly earnings showed the extent of slack remaining potentially easing pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates. The GBP tried to resume its bullish trend following the surprise spike in CPI yesterday.
- China Q2 GDP and June industrial production topped expectations but investors appeared to be less inclined to anticipate a more aggressive round of stimulus beyond the current "targeted measures." NZD was leading the way lower currently among the commodity-related currencies. AUD was also testing the lower end of the recent range at 0.9325

Political/In the Papers:
- (IT) Moody's affirms negative outlook on Italy banking sector, cites asset quality deterioration and low profitability levels
- (US) Fed Chair Yellen: Economy is continuing to improve but recovery is not yet complete
- (US) Fed's George (non-voter, hawk): Strengthening economy means interest rates should increase relatively soon

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU Leaders hold summit on Key Appointments
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 4.0B in 1.5% 2024 Bunds
- 05:30 (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to sell combined 1.00-1.25B in 6-month and 12-month Bills

- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell RUB15B in May 2019 OFZ bonds
- 06:00 (IL)) Israel Q1 Final GDP Annualized: No est v 2.7% prelim
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e July 11th: No est v 1.9% prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil July FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: -0.5%e v -0.7% prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa May Retail Sales M/M: 0.5%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.7%e v 1.8% prior
- 07:00 (UK) PM Cameron weekly question time in House of Commons
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Jun CPI Core M/M: 0.0%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.9%e v 0.8% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Jun Average Gross Wages M/M: +2.9%e v -2.5% prior; Y/Y: 4.6%e v 4.8% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Jun Employment M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.7%e v 0.7% prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil May Retail Sales M/M: -0.1%e v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 3.7%e v 6.7% prior; Broad Retail Sales Y/Y: 0.3%e v 0.0% prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Treasury Sec Lew in NY
- 08:30 (US) Jun PPI Final Demand M/M: +0.2%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.9%e v 2.0% prior
- 08:30 (US) Jun PPI Final PPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: +0.2%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 2.0% prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada May Manufacturing Sales M/M: +1.0%e v -0.1% prior
- 09:00 (US) May Net Long-term TIC Flows: +$25.0Be v -$24.2B prior; Total Net TIC Flows: No est v $136.8B prior
- 09:15 (US) Jun Industrial Production M/M: 0.3%e v 0.6% prior; Capacity Utilization: 79.3%e v 79.1% prior; Manufacturing Production: 0.3%e v 0.6% prior
- 10:00 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 1.00%

- 10:00 (US) July NAHB Housing Market Index: 50e v 49 prior
- 10:00 (US) Fed Chair Yellen semi-annual testimony to House
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil weekly Currency Flows
- 12:00 (US) Fed's Fisher on monetary policy in LA
- 14:00 (US) Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
- 21:55 (AU) RBA's Edey speaks on Panel in Sydney
- (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BDB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Selic Target Rate unchanged at 11.00%

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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