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Little New From Yellen. UK Jobs Improve But Wages Soft. U.S. Data Better. Active Calendar Thursday

Little New From Yellen. UK Jobs Improve But Wages Soft. U.S. Data Better. Active Calendar Thursday
July 17, 2014 00:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Markets have moved into a mixed  risk-on posture Wednesday . We are noting the gains in shares as a primary risk indicator. On the other hand, bond yields have been falling. We are noting the ease in EURUSD.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mostly lower on the day.  Yields on the European periphery are lower. The German 10-yr bund is 1.19%, -2bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.65%  0bp.Most still see a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend. UK wage growth released today were soft.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.54%,  -1bp.
  • Equities closed mixed in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are up strongly. U.S. shares are stronger.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS:  EZ- HICP (CPI), US- Weekly Jobless, Housing Starts & Permits, Philly Fed
  • U.S. data on Wednesday were mixed, and thus did not have a major impact on trade. Nothing shook the markets from their view  that the U.S. economy is growing slowly and that price pressures remain subdued.
  •   A key  focus today will be the second leg of semi-annual  Congressional testimony by Fed Chair Yellen. Yesterday, she  maintained her generally dovish tone but focused mainly on the  possible timing of rate hikes to normalize policy.  Today she goes before the House.
  • The Bank of Canada kept policy steady as expected, and gave forward guidance that future policy is data Dependant .
  • U.K. jobless fell in June but wage gains were less than hoped for. The GBPUSD has eased.
  • 2Q14 Chinese GDP gained in line with forecasts and 2Q14 NZ inflation was softer than expected.
  • See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.
  • On Thursday, final EZ CPI data for June will be released. Housing Starts and Permits are due from the U.S. along with Industrial Production and sentiment data. On Friday, Canadian CPI and the preliminary July University of Michigan Survey are due.  
  • See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner

THURSDAY July 17, 2014
US Initial Claims
US House Starts /Permits

FRIDAY July 18, 2014
US U Mich prelim

Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
17/07/14 9:00 A EZ HICP mm 0.10% -0.10%
17/07/14 9:00 A EZ HICP yy 0.50% 0.50%
17/07/14 9:00 A EZ HICP core y 0.80% 0.80%
17/07/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a n/a
17/07/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 310 304
17/07/14 12:30 A US House Starts 1020 1001
17/07/14 12:30 A US House Permits 1045 1005
17/07/14 14:00 A US Philly Fed 16 17.8
17/07/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 93
17/07/14 23:50 A JP BOJ Minutes n/a n/a
18/07/14 0:00 FRIDAY
18/07/14 12:30 A CA BOC CPI Apr y n/a 1.70%
18/07/14 12:30 A CA CPI mm 0.10% 0.50%
18/07/14 12:30 A CA CPI yy 2.40% 2.30%
18/07/14 13:55 A US U Mich prelim 83.2 82.5
18/07/14 14:00 B US Lead Ind 0.50% 0.50%
18/07/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
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