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Wednesday August 17, 2005 - 11:52:47 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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So what about the yen...

Quotable

“Foreign exchange is about relationships. Your ability to find good liquidity, your ability to be plugged into the information flow—it all depends on relationships.

Bill Lipshcutz- Taken from his interview in The New Market Wizards by Schwager


FX Trading

Does $-yen represent a buy or a sell?

chart $/yen weekly


With politics of postal reform swirling, maybe that’s what matters. Many believe it could determine the future path of Japanese reform. From The Economist:

“The risks [of snap election scheduled for September 11th] are huge: for Mr Koizumi, his party and for Japan. Although each of the two biggest contenders—Mr Koizumi's wing of the LDP and the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)—backs a freer and more flexible Japan, neither may be able to win a clear majority. The immediate outcome could leave anti-reformists in a position of leverage, and perhaps greatly emboldened. For all the dangers, however, this could be just the moment for which many champions of real change have long been hoping.”

Ongoing reform could set the stage for the Bank of Japan to finally change its zero interest rate policy. We are already seeing long rates in Japan tick higher with stocks. But the question remains: Are we seeing just another false start for the Japanese economy?

In piece titled “From bug to butterfly” by Takehiro Sato and Robert Feldman of Morgan Stanley:

“This recovery is real and sustainable. The GDP deflator likely exceed zero for the first time since 1997 in 2006. Deflation is ending.

The Bank of Japan will likely reduce quantitative easing in the first half of 2006, but keep zero interest rates in place throughout the forecast period. As bank lending increases, ultra-low interest rates should become stimulative again, and support asset markets.

“Oil prices have recently hit new highs, which poses some risk. US and Chinese growth are potential risk factors. Political uncertainties could dampen the spirits of investors.”

But not so fast says Stratfor.com:

“Japan registered an annualized growth rate of 1.1 percent from April to July of 2005… But do not get too excited. The crushing debt, the inflexible labor market and the inability of the Japanese to invest their money where they want mean that even the Bank of Japan -- the country's central bank -- believes that 1.1 percent is the maximum sustainable growth for the economy…it is the best Japan can hope for.”

But people are getting excited about Japan. As you can see in the chart below, stocks could be breaking out to a fresh four-year high:

chart nikkei weekly

The stock market is the largest repository of collateral value, to paraphrase Mr. Soros. And this move could have a positive self-feeding impact on the Japanese economy. And if it does, we would expect The Bank of Japan to take note. And if they do, just maybe the country emerges from deflation and zero interest rates at the same time. Both of those things, one has to believe, are good for a currency over time.

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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