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Thursday June 17, 2004 - 02:00:14 GMT
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Forecast for the Euro vs US Dollar 17th June 2004

Price: 1.2005

Day View
Resistance: 1.2015 ... 1.2035 ... 1.2055 ... 1.2075
Support....: 1.1980 ... 1.1955 ... 1.1930 ... 1.1900

Bias: Mixed - awaiting breaks

Bullish: Yesterday's decline came from slightly lower than anticipated and has bitten much deeper than expected. This does bring a bearish feel but we are rather cautious at this stage. To return to a short-term bullish corrective pattern we need to see resistance at 1.2035 break in which case a move to 1.2055 will be seen and probably all the way back to 1.2075-95. However, if seen we feel this higher zone should cap the Euro.

Bearish: While we had expected a decline yesterday it began from lower than expected and has broken below the 1.2030 support. This break does give a general bearish feel but we must be aware of a possible initial correction before the downside can continue. Thus, only directly below 1.1980 would pressure the 1.1950-55 area again and would probably cause a test of the 1.1895-00 support. We feel this will not break today. If it does, then a move to 1.1760-70 is likely. Any earlier correction to the 1.2075-95 area would provide an excellent selling opportunity with stops above 1.2125.

Elliott Wave Comment:

30th May
We are exceptionally frustrated to have missed the recent rally and have adjusted the daily cycles as shown above. The cycles look bullish for a further 5-10 days and we are approaching the key resistance areas of 1.2355-1.2455 which we feel will be tested during this period.

From the daily chart it can be seen that we have adjusted the decline from 1.2927 to a diagonal triangle Wave (A) within whihc the Wave [v] was very close to being a perfect 76.4% projection of the decline from 1.2927 to 1.2055. This now implies we should be looking for a three wave correction higher and Elliott Guidelines suggest this should be to the span of Wave [iv] (at 1.2456) with a focus on the extreme of Wave [ii] of Wave [V], this being at 1.2387.

In the rally from 1.1758 we have now labeled the 1.2180 high as Wave [a] and the decline to 1.1771 as Wave [b]. We therefore look for a five wave rally to complete Wave [c]. We can look at several measurements for Wave [c]. Clearly there are the Elliott Guideline targets at 1.2385-1.2456 which we should observe closely. We should also consider the Double Bottom at 1.1758-1.1771 which would project a minimum target at 1.2600. Also consider a 76.4% correction of the entire decline from 1.2927 to 1.1758 which rests at 1.2650

Internally in Wave [c] we have seen Wave i rally to 1.2059 and Wave ii down to 1.1893. We can derive two targets for Wave iii. The first is around 1.2290 (which we have seen on Friday) being a projection of 138.2% and the second is at 1.2360 being a projection of 161.8%. Generally the former projection of 138.2% is more common. Therefore, following a correction in Wave iv we will expect the final rally to reach either between 1.2385-1.2456 or all the way to the 1.2600-50 area. We shall need to assess this as price develops over the coming week.

June 14th

The correction from 1.2350 continues and has been deep. Internal wave structures suggest this should continue to 1.1865-90 at least but with a daily cycle low due any day we have to be cautious about execpecting any further. If we look at the larger picture we are not due to see a major cycle high until end of July, possibly into August and as such we have to take the rally to 1.2350 as a three-wave move. This could imply the correction to the 1.2927 - 1.1758 decline could prove to be complex and thus this could mean a triangle, flat or expanded flat correction. A recovery from 1.1865-90 would suggest a triangle while any move down to 1.1758 implies a flat correction. Alternatively an expanded flat would imply a dip down to 1.1620-1.1530 before higher.

(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004

Disclaimer: Pro Commentary, FX-Strategy, FX-Strategy Pro Charts, and any related products or services, are analytical tools only and are not intended to replace individual research. The information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. FX-Strategy is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any software or training will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. The views are not necessarily those of FX-Strategy, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. FX-Strategy will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. Be sure to closely read and understand the risks of foreign currency trading as described on the FX-Strategy website.


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