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Tuesday July 29, 2014 - 08:51:20 GMT
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Risk-Off Trade as The Markets set up for the Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday

Risk-Off Trade as The Markets set up for the Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday
July 29 2014 09:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Europe markets are in a "risk-off" posture early Tuesday as a slew of high impact data due in the second half of this week. German 10-yr bund yields have made new record lows.  The EURUSD is steady at 1.3436.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower and remain well below recent levels. Yields on the European periphery are down. EZ 10-yr 1.13%, -2bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.56%  -2bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still expected by yearend..
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.48%,  -1bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed higher. Bourses in Europe are mostly lower. U.S. share futures are down.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


    HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- Conference Board Survey
  • Today, the top item is the Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey. 
  • Yesterday, the U.S. flash Markit Service PMI estimate came in virtually flat relative to the June reading.It remained at a high level.
  • Pending Homes Sales, which are a preliminary reading on Existing Homes sales fell but by not as much as some had feared. Recently New Homes sales have turned exceptionally weak.
  • The Wednesday focus is the ADP Private Payrolls Survey and the Fed Policy Decision. On Thursday, German Employment and flash EZ HICP (CPI) data are the highlights. On Friday, a slew of final PMI reports, month U.S. employment data and the final University of Michigan survey for July are featured. will see U.S. Durable Goods data  later today.
  • See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items:

TUESDAY
US CB Consumer Conf
TRY TRY 5-yr
WEDNESDAY
US ADP Jobs
US GDP 2Q14prelim
TRY TRY 7-yr
FRB Fed Rates
THURSDAY
DE Unemployment
EZ flash  HICP (CPI)  yy
CA GDP mm
US Initial Claims
US Chicago PMI
FRIDAY
CH Holiday
JP Mfg PMI
CN NBS PMI
CN HSBC final PMI
DE MFG PMI final
EZ MFG PMI final
GB MFG PMI
US Employment 
US PCE defl y
US Personal Income
CA RBC-Markit PMI
US MKT MFG PMI final
US U Mich final
US ISM MFG PMI

FOREX CALENDAR
Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
29/07/14 13:00 B US Case-Shil 20 yy 0.30% 0.20%
29/07/14 14:00 A US CB Consumer Conf 85.5 85.2
29/07/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 5-yr n/a n/a
29/07/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
30/07/14 0:00 WEDNESDAY
30/07/14 9:00 C EZ Cons Conf -8.4 n/a
30/07/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
30/07/14 12:15 A US ADP Jobs 235 281
30/07/14 12:30 A US GDP 2Q14 prelim 3.00% -2.90%
30/07/14 14:00 B US Factory Orders n/a n/a
30/07/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a -3.97
30/07/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a 1.4
30/07/14 14:30 B US EIA Distillate mn n/a 1.6
30/07/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 93.80%
30/07/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 7-yr n/a n/a
30/07/14 18:00 A FRB Fed Rates 0.25% 0.25%
31/07/14 0:00 THURSDAY
31/07/14 7:55 A DE unem Kchg -5 9
31/07/14 7:55 A DE unempl rate 6.70% 6.70%
31/07/14 9:00 A EZ FL HICP yy 0.80% 0.80%
31/07/14 9:00 A EZ FL HICP core yy n/a n/a
31/07/14 9:00 C EZ Unemploy May 11.60% 11.60%
31/07/14 12:30 A CA GDP mm 0.30% 0.10%
31/07/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 305 284
31/07/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.5
31/07/14 13:45 A US Chicago PMI 63 62.6
31/07/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 90
01/08/14 0:00 FRIDAY
01/08/14 0:00 A CH Holiday n/a n/a
01/08/14 0:13 A JP Mfg PMI n/a 50.8
01/08/14 1:00 A CN NBS PMI 51.3 51
01/08/14 1:45 A CN HSBC final PMI 51.9 52
01/08/14 7:50 B FR MFG PMI final 47.6 47.6
01/08/14 7:55 A DE MFG PMI final 52.9 52.9
01/08/14 7:58 A EZ MFG PMI final 51.9 51.9
01/08/14 8:28 A GB MFG PMI 57.2 57.5
01/08/14 12:30 A US Jobless % 6.10% 6.10%
01/08/14 12:30 A US Payrolls 230 288
01/08/14 12:30 A US Priv Jobs n/a n/a
01/08/14 12:30 A US PCE defl y 1.40% 1.50%
01/08/14 12:30 A US Per Inc 0.40% 0.40%
01/08/14 13:30 A CA RBC-Markit PMI n/a n/a
01/08/14 13:45 A US MKT MFG PMI final n/a n/a
01/08/14 13:55 A US U Mich final 81.5 81.3
01/08/14 14:00 A US Construction Mar 0.50% 0.10%
01/08/14 14:00 A US ISM MFG PMI 56 55.3
01/08/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a


calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.



John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of Global-View.com. He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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