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Thursday August 18, 2005 - 00:45:10 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 18th August 2005

Price: 1.2623

Resistance: 1.2653 ... 1.2684 ... 1.2700 ... 1.2727
Support....: 1.2610 ... 1.2565 ... 1.2533 ... 1.2516

Bias: We look for 1.2653 to cap and for a pullback lower to the 1.2530-40 area

Bullish: Gains were seen directly yesterday and this has made its way to the 1.2636 level thus far. We see potential to 1.2653 but expect this to cap. Thus a more bullish stance will require a break first above 1.2653 and then 1.2581-88. If seen then gains should move higher to 1.2727 and probably the 1.2756 area. Further resistance lies at 1.2812.

Bearish: We failed to see the expected pullback yesterday but saw direct gains. We feel these have potential to reach 1.2653 but feel this should cap. Look to sell at 1.2650 but keep stops above 1.2690. A move back below 1.2595-1.2610 will assist lower but a deeper pullback requires breach of the 1.2565 corrective low. If seen then look for extension to 1.2530-40 but caution is then advised as this could hold. Further support is then found at 1.2516 and 1.2484.



Elliott Wave Comments:

15th August 2005

No real change from Friday's comments. We note the daily harmonic retracement level (41.4%) in Wave (iv) at 1.2416 and feel the reversal from 1.2432 may well have satisifed the downside for now. Thus we are looking for Wave -x- to develop with 41.4% and 50.0% retracement levels at 1.2700 and 1.2750. This area should be tested at a minimum.

17th August 2005

The move to 1.2626 completed an ABC pattern and thus we now look for a Wave x which should move down to the 1.2497-1.2510 area and should be followed by a second ABC pattern up to the 1.2700-50 area which itself should form Wave -x- from where a further ABC pattern lower to 1.2416 minimum and possibly as deep at 1.2278.



(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005

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