User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday August 5, 2014 - 03:38:49 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Morning Briefing : 05-Aug-2014 -0338 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
The big event today is the RBI Credit Policy and that would determine the short term direction for the Indian markets. Globally the markets are trading in a divergent way, even in Europe where the German market falls while the French market rises. Each on its own?

Dow (16569.28, +0.46%) is taking the expected pause after the fall to 16450. After this pause, the fall may resume again testing the support area in 16300-200. The Dax (9154.14, -0.61%) has firmly broken down the 2 year long channel support at 9400-350 to signal long term weakness. For now, a corrective bounce can be expected from this short term support area of 9150-9000 and then more fall.

Nikkei (15437.49, -0.24%) is trading near the June-July highs around 15450 and unless it gets back above 15600 soon, a trip to 15200 canít be ruled out. Today Shanghai (2218.10, -0.24%) has hit a new high at 2227 after ending the month above 2140 and targeting the final long term resistance in 2260-70. Some profit booking may be expected in the area of 2230-70.

Nifty (7683.65, +1.07%) bounced higher in sync with Dow just as expected and now the next directional move would be decided by the RBI Credit Policy this morning. Keep an eye on the resistance in 7710-25 and the support in 7635-20

COMMODITIES
Oil market seems to be in the end of a sharp one month correction and we may now expect some bullish moves. Metals are ranged for now with lower momentum.

Gold (1288.98) is struggling in the 1280-1300 region. Momentum remains low and the metal may continue to remain range bound this week. 1280 has been a crucial support and we need to see if it is able to toss the metal to higher levels.

Silver (20.207) is heading lower towards 20-19.7 in the near term while the 21.50 levels hold strong. Gold-Silver ratio (63.768) is rallying higher and may target 64-64.5 in the near term. But if the metals remain stable the ratio may consolidate for some time before rising further.

Copper (3.2390) is in a sideways consolidation while in a near term up trend. It may remain ranged above 3.20 for a few sessions before deciding further direction.

Nymex WTI (98.41) has bounced from 97.00 but while below 99, there might be some chances of testing lower levels of 96. A bounce may take the Crude higher to 102-104 levels in the coming sessions.

Brent (105.58) recovered Mondayís fall bouncing from support near 104.39 as expected. While this holds, we may see a rise towards 107-108.7 levels in the near term. Note that while below 106, we cannot completely negate the possibility of a fall to 104.39.

FOREX
All the global currencies are in a comatose mode with very narrow ranges with the ECM meet coming up and this unchanged scenario may be reflected on the Rupee too, awaiting the RBI meet this morning.

Euro (1.3418) is trading in a range of 20-30 pips but to extend the bounce, it must break above 1.3450. The ECB meet later this week may bring some short covering but the major trend remains firmly down and set for lower targets.

Dollar-Yen (102.56) is trading in the range of 101-103 as expected but now it may still attempt the difficult rise to 103.50-104 if it manages to sustain above 102.35-25. Euro-Yen (137.63) is consolidating in the higher levels and may rise to test the resistance area of 1.3830-50, above which the door to 1.39 will open.

Pound (1.6863) bounced as expected but may find it difficult to handle the resistance at 1.6890-6900 now. It has signaled the end of its 9-month long uptrend and now every corrective rise may face selling pressure at the higher levels.

Aussie (0.9323) is stuck in the range of 0.9350-0.9250 and unless it manages to break this range, no trending move will emerge and sideways price action may prevail.

Dollar-Rupee (60.93) corrected as expected as the traders wait for the RBI meet this morning. Technically, the correction may end in the support zone of 60.70-50. Keep an eye on the resistance at 61.25-30 too.

INTEREST RATES
RBI Monetary Policy announcement today. General consensus is for no rate cut this time. The Repo, Reverse Repo and MSF rates are currently at 8%, 7% and 9% respectively. People will look for the RBI's views on inflation, even though the CPI data is to be released next week.

The 10Yr GOI (8.73%) remains below 8.75% and has prospects of moving lower in the longer term if inflation keeps coming down.

The ECB and BOE monetary policy meetings are also due this Thursday. Europe fights deflation. There is a slight uptick in the yields of the "peripheral" countries (Spain, Italy, Greece) recently even though the German 10Yr (1.136%) remains well below 1.15%.

In the USA, the yield curve continues to flatten with the 30Yr (3.29%) and 10Yr (2.48%) now coming down while the 5Yr (1.65%) remains flat. This is a big change from the earlier scenario where we were looking for a rise in the 10Yr and 30Yr. The 10-5Yr Spread (0.83%) faces an important Resistance at 0.85% in its downtrend since 1.42% (Nov-13).

DATA TODAY



0:30 GMT or 6:00 IST Australia Trade Balance
...Expected -2.00 A$ Bln ...Previous -2.04 A$ Bln ...Actual -1.68 A$ Bln

4:30 GMT or 10:00 IST RBA Meeting
...Expected 2.50 % ...Previous 2.50 %

5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI Repo Rate
...Previous - 8.00 %

5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI Reverse Repo Rate
...Previous - 7.00 %

5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI CRR
...Previous - 4.00 %

5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI MSF
...Previous - 9.00 %


DATA YESTERDAY

CH PMI
...Expected 56.20 ...Previous 54.00 ...Actual 54.30


 

 

 

 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 20 November 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105