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EZ Service PMI Data Revisions Mixed. UK Service PMI Beats. U.S. Service PMI Data Due Later

EZ Service PMI Data Revisions Mixed. UK Service PMI Beats. U.S. Service PMI Data Firm
August 6, 2014 00:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Markets are in a mixed risk posture late in the European session  Data releases today have Eben mixed to positive.The  EURUSD appears to have broken decisively through the 1.3400 line ahead of th ECB policy board decision on Thursday.



  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are working  higher. Yields on the European periphery are up. The. EZ 10-yr  is 1.17%, +3bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.58%  +4bp following strong Services PMI data. . A +25bp BOE rate hike is still seen by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.81%, +2bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed mostly lower. Bourses in Europe have  closed higher. .U.S. shares are marginally lower.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


    HIGH IMPACT NEWS: DE- Factory Orders, CH- CPI, GB- Output. US- Trade
  • U.S. Services PMI data Markit and ISM ) both fell modestly in July but remained at relatively high levels and gave the USD a boost.
  • U.K. Service PMI data  beat expectations, but presented a mixed picture in July when taken with the Mfg PMI release last week.
  • Revisions to EZ flash Service PMI data were minor and had no  exchange rate impact. EZ Retail Sales data were mixed.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia kept policy steady as expected. It expects inflationary pressures to remain in check. 
  • See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they are released. 
  • Wednesday sees Swiss CPI and U.K. output data. Also U.S. and Canadian trade data will be released.
  • On Thursday, Key Australian employment data will be followed by UK and ECB policy decisions.
  • Friday sees trade reports from China, Germany and the U.K. Key Canadian jobs data are also due.July.
  • See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.

WEDNESDAY AUGUST 6, 2014
US Factory Orders
US ISM SVC PMI
CH CPI
CA Trade 
US Trade
THURSDAY AUGUST 7, 2014
AU Employment
GB Bank of England
EZ Europe Cntl Bank
US Initial Claims
CA Ivey PMI
FRIDAY AUGUST 8, 2014
CN Trade  
JP Bank of Japan
GB Trade  
CA Employment
US Productivity 2Q14p
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items:

FOREX CALENDAR
Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
05/08/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
06/08/14 0:00 WEDNESDAY
06/08/14 7:00 B DE Factory Ord mm 0.90% -1.80%
06/08/14 7:00 B DE Factory Ord yy 1.10% 5.50%
06/08/14 7:15 A CH CPI mm n/a -0.10%
06/08/14 7:15 A CH CPI yy n/a 0.00%
06/08/14 8:30 B GB Ind Output m 0.60% -0.70%
06/08/14 8:30 B GB Ind Output y 1.50% 2.30%
06/08/14 8:30 B GB Mfg Output m 0.60% -1.30%
06/08/14 8:30 B GB Mfg Output yy 2.10% 3.70%
06/08/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
06/08/14 12:30 A CA Trade C$bn -0.15 -0.64
06/08/14 12:30 A US Trade USDb -44.5 -44.4
06/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a -3.7
06/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a 0.36
06/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Distillate mn n/a 0.79
06/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 93.50%
07/08/14 0:00 THURSDAY
07/08/14 1:30 A AU Payrolls 13.2 15.9
07/08/14 1:30 A AU % Jobless 6.00% 6.00%
07/08/14 7:00 B DE Ind Output yy 0.20% 1.30%
07/08/14 11:00 A GB Bank of England 0.50% 0.50%
07/08/14 11:00 A GB QE GBP bn 375 375
07/08/14 11:45 A EZ Europe Cntl Bank 0.15% 0.15%
07/08/14 12:30 A EZ ECB Webcast n/a n/a
07/08/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 300 302
07/08/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a n/a
07/08/14 14:00 A CA Ivey PMI n/a 46.9
07/08/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a n/a
08/08/14 0:00 FRIDAY
08/08/14 2:00 A CN Trade 26 31.6
08/08/14 2:00 A CN Exports yy 7.50% 7.20%
08/08/14 4:30 A JP Bank of Japan 0.10% 0.10%
08/08/14 7:00 B DE Trade eur bn 18.9 18.8
08/08/14 8:30 A GB Visible Trade -8.9 -9.2
08/08/14 8:30 A GB Trade- Non-EU -3.7 4
08/08/14 12:30 A CA Jobless % 7.10% 7.10%
08/08/14 12:30 A CA Payrolls 25 -9.4
08/08/14 12:30 A US Productivity 2Q14p 1.30% -3.20%
08/08/14 14:00 B US Wholesale Inventories 0.60% 0.50%
08/08/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a


calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.



John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of Global-View.com. He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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