User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday August 6, 2014 - 04:05:24 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Morning Briefing : 06-Aug-2014 -0404 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS

Dow (16429.47, -0.84%) fell again after the pause just as expected and reached closer to the support area of 16300-200, from where some buyers may emerge to push it up to 16600 levels once more. The Dax (9189.74, +0.39%) has firmly broken down the 2 year long channel support at 9400-350 to signal long term weakness. For now, a corrective bounce can be expected from this short term support area of 9150-9000 and then more fall.

Nikkei (15167.60, -1.00%) reached our target level of 15200 in a sharp fall, marking severe weakness. If the support band of 15100-50 fails, it may drop to 14800-600 levels. Shanghai (2200.77, -0.86%) is facing a bout of profit booking from the 2230 levels just as expected. After this correction, it may rally again towards the final long term resistance of 2260-70.

Nifty (7746.55, +0.82%) ended the day with a healthy gain after the SLR cut by RBI. To extend the rally to higher levels of 7810-40, it needs to trade above 7760 now, otherwise some profit booking may take place

COMMODITIES
The Dollar strength is pushing the metals lower and may continue so in the near term signalling bearishness for the metals. Oil markets are also trading low.

Gold (1289.63) is stable and trading a bit higher. We may see some sideways consolidation in the near term in the 1280-1300 region and unless this range breaks further direction cannot be determined. Overall long term trend is down.

Silver (19.845) fell sharply yesterday and may once again test the crucial support near 19.5-18.5 in the near term. Bearish pressure hovers in the coming sessions. Gold-Silver ratio (65.015) rose sharply as Silver fell and may target resistance near 65.5 in the near term.

Copper (3.1950) has also come down now below 3.20 and may see some correction towards 3.15-3.10 in the near term.

Nymex WTI (97.67) has also fallen as said earlier and may soon test the crucial long term weekly support near 96 from where we may see a bounce upwards.

Brent (104.96) seems to have again entered a short term consolidation after the fall from 107.86 levels recently. No clear direction is known for now. Bears seem to dominate for now while below 106. While above 104.39 a sideways movement could be expected.

FOREX
Euro (1.3368) is suffering from its failure to break above 1.3450 and has hit a new low at 1.3356. Unless 1.3450 is broken soon, the possibility of it reaching the support area of 1.33 will be stronger.

Dollar-Yen (102.53) is trading in the range of 101-103 as expected but now it may still attempt the difficult rise to 103.50-104 if it manages to sustain above 102.35-25. Euro-Yen (137.06) came down contrary to expectation on the back of a weakened Euro. It can hit 136.40-05 now if Euro continues to fall.

Pound (1.6876) bounced as expected but may find it difficult to handle the resistance at 1.6890-6900 now. It has signaled the end of its 9-month long uptrend and now every corrective rise may face selling pressure at the higher levels.

Aussie (0.9298) is stuck in the range of 0.9350-0.9250 and unless it manages to break this range, no trending move will emerge and sideways price action may prevail.

Dollar-Rupee (60.85) may have ended its correction at 60.70 yesterday, completely in line with our expectation. But that must be confirmed with a break above 61, signaling the resumption of the intermediate uptrend targeting new highs above 61.20.

INTEREST RATES
Higher yields in India, unclear picture in Europe, curve flattening in the USA.

Indian 10Yr bond yields (8.8344% for the 2023 maturity and 8.6110% for the 2024 maturity) rose yesterday as the RBI's monetary policy stance was interpreted as hawkish. The RBI is reasonably alright with the target of 8% CPI by Jan-15, it is a little more cautious about whether 6% by Jan-16 will be achieved or not.

The rise in the older bond to 8.834% could be a little bearish for Indian Bonds going forward, but maybe global investors will welcome RBI's hawkishness.

The German-US 2Yr Spread (-0.44%) is showing chances of a small Double Bottom (see the first chart on the following page: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/eurusddiff.shtml#eurusd) which suggests chances of further rise towards -0.40% if not higher. This seems to go against the market perception that the ECB Meeting tomorrow will push European yields lower. This is despite the charts suggesting further decline in Yields ahead. The slight uptick in the Italian and Spanish yields (mentioned yesterday) is finding Resistance now and can the yields could come off again. Only Greece (10Yr 6.44%) seems to be trying to form a bottom and rise. That could be a cause for concern.

In the USA, the 10-5 Yr Spread (0.82%) is holding below the long-term Resistance at 0.85%. The 30-5Yr Spread (1.62%) has strong Resistance now at 1.7%. Both point to further Curve flattening ahead.

DATA TODAY



12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US Trade Balance
...Expected -44.20 $ Bln ...Previous -44.39 $ Bln


DATA YESTERDAY
Australia Trade Balance
...Expected -2.00 A$ Bln ...Previous -2.04 A$ Bln ...Actual -1.68 A$ Bln

RBA Meeting
...Expected 2.50 % ...Previous 2.50 % ...Actual 2.50 %

RBI Repo Rate
...Previous - 8.00 % ...Actual 8.00 %

RBI Reverse Repo Rate
...Previous - 7.00 % ...Actual 7.00 %

RBI CRR
...Previous - 4.00 % ...Actual 4.00 %

RBI MSF
...Previous - 9.00 % ...Actual 9.00 %

EU Retail Sales
...Expected 0.40 % ...Previous 0.31 % ...Actual 0.41%


 

 

 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 15 November 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105