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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: ECB's Draghi likely to come under pressure to do even more to support the EMU economy after a string of disappointing European data


Thu, 07 Aug 2014 5:16 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Australia July Employment Change weaker than expected (-0.3K v +13.2Ke) with unemployment hitting a 12-year high at 6.4%
- German data continues to disappoint; Germany Jun Industrial Production M/M: 0.3% v 1.2%e; German 10-yr Bund yield hits another record low
- Portuguese banking sector shares impacted by bail-in concerns over BES (off their worst levels ahead of the NY morning)
- Dealers ponder whether there will be a dissenter at today's BOE but wont know until the minutes are published later this month
- ECB's Draghi likely to come under pressure to do even more to support the EMU economy after a string of disappointing European data

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (CH) Swiss July SECO Consumer Confidence: -1v +3e
- (DE) Germany Jun Industrial Production M/M: 0.3% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v +0.3%e
- (FI) Finland Jun Preliminary Trade Balance: -55M v +321M prior
- (ZA) South Africa July Gross Reserves: $49.9B v $48.7Be; Net Reserves: $44.3B v $44.6Be
- (FR) France Jun Trade Balance: -5.4B v -4.9Be
- (HU) Hungary July Foreign Currency Reserves: 35.2B v 36.1B prior
- (CH) Swiss July Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 453.4B v 449.6B prior
- (ES) Spain Jun Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: 2.9% v 0.6% prior; Industrial Output SA Y/Y: % v 2.7%e
- (ES) Spain Jun House transactions Y/Y: 8.8% v 5.4% prior
- (HU) Hungary Jun Preliminary Trade Balance: 609.7M v 568.5Me
- (EU) ECB 15M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 5.0M prior; 22.7B parked in deposit facility vs. 32.7B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden July Average House Prices (SEK): 2.200M v 2.435M prior
- (NL) Netherlands July CPI M/M: +0.8% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9% prior
- (NL) Netherlands July CPI Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.3% prior
- (SE) Sweden July Budget Balance (SEK): -3.8B v -29.1B prior
- (NO) Norway Jun Industrial Production M/M: +5.7% v -5.9% prior; Y/Y: +3.2% v -4.0% prior
- (NO) Norway Jun Manufacturing Production M/M: 1..7% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 2.4% prior
- (TW) Taiwan July Trade Balance: $2.6B v $2.7Be; Exports Y/Y: 5.8% v 6.8%e; Imports Y/Y: 9.5% v 8.8%e
- (CZ) Czech July International Reserves: $57.6B v $59.0B prior
- UN Foods and Agricultural Organization (FAO) Jun World Food Prices Y/Y: 203.9 v 206.0 prior (6-month low)
- (GR) Greece May Unemployment Rate: 27.2% v 27.2%e
- (IS) Iceland July Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): B v -1.2B prior
- (SG) Singapore July Foreign Reserves: $273.7B v $278.0B prior
- (CY) Cyprus July CPI M/M: -0.9% v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.6% v -1.9% prior

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 3.14B vs. 2.0-3.0B indicated range in 2020 and 2024 Bonds

- Sold 1.18B in 1.4% Jan 2020 bond; Avg Yield 1.422% v 1.568% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.2x v 1.39x prior; Maximum Yield: 1.439% v 1.606% prior
- Sold 1.96B in 2.75 % Oct 2024 bono; Avg Yield 2.686% (record low); Bid-to-cover: 2.12x; Maximum Yield: 2.699%; (**Note: Prior results are not comparable for the 10-year line)

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities***
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.1%
, FTSE 100 -0.2% at 6,622, DAX flat at 9,127, CAC-40 -0.2% at 4,198, IBEX-35 -0.4% at 10,210, FTSE MIB +0.3% at 19,577, SMI +0.5% at 8,329, S&P 500 Futures +0.3% at 1,919]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open mostly lower following Wednesday's losses, FTSE MIB outperforms on rebound in shares of Fiat and Telecom Italia, More weaker than expected German data (June industrial production), Most German companies which reported earnings decline, Reinsurers continue to miss ests (MunichRe), Nestle rises on buyback and better than expected organic growth, Commerzbank reports op profits above ests, Staffing firm Adecco misses sales ests, Rio Tinto profits above ests, Portuguese banking concerns spread to BCP, Upcoming ECB and BoE decisions, Banca Monte Paschi reports earnings during US session

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Adecco ADEN.CH -2.5% (Q2 sales below ests); Beiersdorf BEI.DE -3% (H1 profits below ests); Moncler MONC.IT +5% (reported Q2 profit)]
- Consumer Staples [Delhaize DELB.BE +3.5% (Q2 profits rose), Nestle NESN.CH +2.5% (H1 organic growth above ests, buyback)]
- Financials [Banco Comercial Portuguese BCP.PT -8% (concerns related to BES bail-in), MunichRe MUV2.DE -2.5% (Q2 profits below ests), RSA RSA.UK -1.5% (H1 profits declined); KBC KBC.BE +3% (Q2 profits above ests), Euronext ENX.FR +2.5% (Q2 sales rose), Commerzbank CBK.DE +2% (Q2 op profit above ests), Zurich Insurance +1.5% (Q2 op profit inline)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Kloeckner KCO.DE +2% (Q2 EBITDA above ests), Rio Tinto RIO.UK +1% (H1 profits above ests)]
- Industrials [Rheinmetall RHM.DE -6% (cut outlook), Brenntag BNR.DE -3.5% (Q2 results below ests); Cobham COB.UK +4% (H1 sales above ests)]
- Healthcare [Stada SAZ.DE -3% (H1 Russian sales -9%)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Utilities -0.9%, Financials -0.3%, Industrials -0.2%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.2%, Telecom -0.1%; Technology +0.7%, Consumer Cyclical +0.4%, Basic Materials +0.2%, Energy +0.2%]

Speakers:
- Russia PM Medvedev:
Ready to review use of transportation air routes and considering ban of EU and US airlines through Russian airspace
- France Conseil Constitutional Court cancelled govt planned 2.5B cut in payroll charges for low earners
- Japan Pension Fund (GPIF) said to be in plans allocate over 20% of funds to Japan equities vs 12% target
- GPIF official Mitani: Nothing decided on portfolio at this time

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Market focus will be on ECB's Draghi post rate decision press conference. Draghi likely to come under pressure to do even more to support the EMU economy after a string of disappointing European data. EUR/USD relatively steady at 1.3375 ahead of the rate decision
- The JPY currency weakened during the latter part of the Tokyo session after report circulated that Japan Pension Fund (GPIF) was said to be in plans allocate over 20% of funds to Japan equities vs 12% target. This also helped the Nikkei225 Index reverse earlier losses to close higher on the day.
- AUD currency was weaker in Asia after disappointing set of employment data from Australia.
- German 10-yr Bund yield hits another record low below 1.09% after more disppointing German economic data

Political/In the Papers:
-(RU) Russia President Putin: Will ban or limit any agricultural imports from countries that have sanctioned Russia over Ukraine; counter sanctions will last one year

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IL) Israel July Foreign Currency Balance: No est v $86.8B prior
- (RU) Russia July Official Reserve Assets: No est v $478.3B prior
- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa July SACCI Business Confidence: No est v 89.7 prior
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell bonds
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jun Industrial Production M/M: No est v -2.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 22.4% (revised from 22.3%)
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland July CPI M/M: 0.0%e v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland July CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0%e v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior
- 06:00 (MY) Malaysia July Foreign Reserves: No est v $131.9B prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave both Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Target (APT) unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Aug 1st: No est v $472.4B prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Jun Manufacturing Production M/M: -1.0%e v -3.3% prior; Y/Y: -1.6%e v -3.7% prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil July FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: -0.5%e v -0.6% prior
- 07:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Key Rates unchanged: Expected to leave Main Refinancing Rate unchanged at 0.15%; Expected to leave Deposit Facility Rate unchanged at -0.10%; Expected to leave Marginal Lending Facility unchanged at 0.40%
- 08:00 (PL) Poland July Official Reserves: No est v $102.0B prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 305Ke v 302K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.51Me v 2.539M prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jun Building Permits M/M: -1.4%e v +13.8% prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile July Trade Balance: $300Me v $625.0M prior; Total Export: No est v $6.4B prior Total Imports: No est v $5.8B prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile July Copper Exports: no est v $3.3B prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (EU) ECB'S Draghi post rate decision press conference
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico July CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 4.1%e v 3.8% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Jun Real Wage M/M: No est v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.0% prior
- 10:00 (CA) Canada July Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally Adj): 51.0e v 46.9 prior; PMI Unadj: No est v 49.7 prior
- 10:00 (HU) Hungary July YTD Budget Balance: No est v -813.7B prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.05-2.50B in notes
- 11:15 (BR) Brazil to sell 2015, 2016 and 2018 Bills
- 11:15 (BR) Brazil to sell Fixed-rate 2021 and 2015 bonds
- 13:00 (PT) ECB's Costa (Portugal) in Lisbon
- 15:00 (US) Jun Consumer Credit: $18.7Be v $19.6B prior
- 19:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Reference Rate by 25bps to 3.50%
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Jun Current Account Balance: 325.7Be v 522.8B prior;
Adj Current Account: 109.0Be v 384.6B prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Jun Trade Balance: -592.8Be v -675.9B prior
- 21:30 (AU) RBA Statement on Monetary Policy

- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Interest Rate Decision
- (US) Tennessee Holds Primary Elections

 

 

 

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14:15 US- Industrial Production
15:00 CA- Bank of Canada Decision
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