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Risk-Off Session Friday. No Major Data Releases on Monday

Risk-Off Session Friday. No Major Data Releases on Monday
August 11, 2014 00.00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Markets in Europe closed in a decisive risk-off posture. U.S. markets  did not follow sit. There was a lot of uncertainty about what would happen over the weekend. The EURUSD is back testing 1.3400 (risk-off trade?).



  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets remain lower again  The 10-yr bund is 1.05% -5bp. The 1.00% line is an obvious psychological target. Peripheral bond yields are now lower on the day.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.46%  -5bp.  Can the  the +25bp BOE rate by end-2014 be in question?
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.39%, -6bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed  mostly lower. Bourses in Europe are ending lower. U.S. shares have rebounded. We are still keeping an eye on the closes

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


    HIGH IMPACT NEWS: No Major Data
  • The upcoming week is only moderately active on the data front.Monday features no major data releases
  • The Chinese CPI released early on Saturday increased +2.30% y/y as expected and suggested no inflationary issues for the government..
  • See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.
  •  Tuesday will see Japanese 2Q14 GDP data.
  • On Wednesday, U.K. Employment data are due along with the latest German ZEW Survey. EZ Industrial Production and The quarterly Bank of England Monetary Policy Report are slated. Key U.S. Retail Sales data are also featured.
  • Thursday sees high profile EZ data with GDP and HICP figure in the spotlight.
  • To end the week, Friday will see UK GDP revisions, U.S. Industrial Production figures and the preliminary University of Michigan Survey.
  • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
MONDAY
No Major Data
TUESDAY
JP GDP qq 1Q14
TRY 3-yr Auction
JP BOJ Minutes
WEDNESDAY
GB  Unemployment
GB BOE Inflation Report
US Ret Sales
TRY 10-yr Auction
THURSDAY
EZ 2Q14 GDP
EZ HICP 
US Initial Claims
TRY 30-yr Auction
FRIDAY
GB GDP
US Ind Prod
US U Mich prelim
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items:

FOREX CALENDAR
Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
11/08/14 0:00 MONDAY
12/08/14 0:00 TUESDAY
12/08/14 0:50 A JP GDP qq 1Q14 -1.80% 1.60%
12/08/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 3-yr n/a n/a
12/08/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
12/08/14 23:50 A JP BOJ Minutes n/a n/a
13/08/14 0:00 WEDNESDAY
13/08/14 8:30 A GB ILO Unemploy 6.40% 6.60%
13/08/14 8:30 A GB Avg Earn 3myy 0.70% 0.70%
13/08/14 8:30 A GB Claimant Count k Mar -30 -36.3
13/08/14 9:00 B DE ZEW Conditions 54 61.8
13/08/14 9:00 B DE ZEW Expectations 17 27.1
13/08/14 9:00 B EZ Ind Prod mm 0.40% -1.10%
13/08/14 9:00 B EZ Ind Prod yy 0.20% 0.50%
13/08/14 9:30 A GB BOE Inflation Report n/a n/a
13/08/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
13/08/14 12:30 A US Ret Sales May 0.60% 0.20%
13/08/14 12:30 A US Sales x-auto 0.40% 0.40%
13/08/14 12:30 A US Sales X-auto&gas n/a n/a
13/08/14 14:00 C US Bus Inv 0.40% 0.50%
13/08/14 14:30 A US EIA Distillate mn n/a n/a
13/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a n/a
13/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a n/a
13/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a n/a
13/08/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 10-yr n/a n/a


calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.



John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of Global-View.com. He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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