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EZ and German GDP Even Weaker Than Forecast. U.K. GDP A Friday Feature
|EZ and German GDP Even Weaker Than Forecast. U.K. GDP A Friday Feature|
August 15, 2014 00:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map
Current Market Conditions:
Late in Europe markets are treading water after another round of poor data after weaker than expected 2Q14 preliminary German and EZ GDP. Markets are.in a mixed risk posture. The EURUSD is below 1.3400 and steady.
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mostly lower. The 10-yr bund is 1.02% +1 bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line was briefly probed today. The 2-yr yield is at 0.0%. Peripheral bond yields are mostly lower.
- The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.43% -1bp. The +25bp BOE rate hike has been pushed a quarter later to 1Q15.
- U.S.10-yr yield is 2.41%, 0bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%?
- Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are ending up. U.S. shares are up.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: GB- GDP, US- Empire PMI, PPI, Ind Prod, Univ of Mich, COT
- Friday will see UK GDP revisions, U.S. Industrial Production figures and the preliminary University of Michigan Survey.
- U.S, Weekly Jobless claims popped back above the psychological 300K line. Overall, they remain at a subdued level as the eligibility of many workers has run out.
- German GDP fell -0.2% qq in 2Q14. This was weaker than expected and saw the German 10-yr yield make a new record lows again just below 1.00%. The EZ composite GDP was flat in the month and also fell short of expectations,
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items:
FRIDAY (Times GMT)
08:30 GB GDP
12:30 CA Revised July Employment
13:15 US Ind Prod
13:55 US U Mich prelim
||U Mich prelim
Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
John M. Bland is a founding partner of Global-View.com. He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
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Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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