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Friday August 15, 2014 - 10:40:02 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Participation light in quiet session; UK Q2 GDP growth roughly in line while Hong Kong contracts

Fri, 15 Aug 2014 5:10 AM EST

- Assumption Day holiday keeps participation light in Europe (Italy, Greece and Poland closed)
- Ukraine border guards and Red Cross officials inspect Russian humanitarian aid convey at Russia checkpoint
- UK 2nd reading of Q2 GDP largely in line with its stellar advance numbers while Hong Kong contracted for the first time in two years

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (SG) Singapore Jun Retail Sales M/M: -1.1% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 1.0%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto Y/Y: -1.1% v 0.3%e
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL Partnership sales for week ending Aug 8th: +7.0% v +6.1% prior
- (FI) Finland Jun Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -1.4% v -1.7% prior
- (FI) Finland Jun Current Account Balance: +290M v -130M prior
- (PH) Philippines Jun Overseas Workers Remittances: $2.1B v $2.0B prior; Y/Y: 5.9% v 5.3%e
- (TR) Turkey May Unemployment Rate: 8.8% v 8.9%e; lowest since July 2013
- (DK) Denmark July PPI M/M: +0.1 v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: -0.7% v -0.3% prior
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Aug 8th (RUB): 8.25T v 8.15T prior
- (EU) ECB 180M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 0.0M prior; 18.8B parked in deposit facility vs. 19.4B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden Jun Household Consumption M/M: 0.5% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.6% v 3.3% prior
- (NO) Norway July Trade Balance (NOK): 22.6B v 17.8B prior
- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 96.9K v 101.0K prior
- (UK) Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.1%e
- (UK) Jun Index of Services M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; 3M/3M: 1.0% v 1.0%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Q2 GDP Q/Q: -0.1% v +0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.8%2.4%e
- (TW) Taiwan Q2 GDP Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.8%e

Fixed Income:
- None seen

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.7%, FTSE 100 +0.7% at 6,731, DAX +0.8% at 9,294, CAC-40 +0.7% at 4,235, IBEX-35 +0.5%, FTSE MIB closed, SMI +0.5% at 8,469, S&P 500 Futures +0.3% at 1,958]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open higher led by the FTSE 100, BHP rises on renewed demerger speculation, Lufthansa rises on speculation that Germany could seek to increase the competitiveness of the domestic aviation industry, H&M July sales above ests

By Sector
- Basic Materials/Resources
[BHP BLT.UK +2.5% (renewed demerger speculation); K+S SDF.DE -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Industrials [BASF BAS.DE +1% (broker commentary)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Lufthansa LHA.DE +3% (speculation related to aviation industry support measures in Germany), H&M HMB.SE +2% (July sales above ests)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Utilities +0.9%, Basic Materials +0.7%,Telecom +0.5%, Industrials +0.4%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.4%, Energy +0.3%, Technology +0.1%; Consumer Cyclical -0.1%, Financials -0.1%]

- Ukraine Foreign Minister Klimkin
stated that the govt was ready for bilateral cease fire if conditions were meet but it needed a de-escalation of situation. He reiterated view that Russian aid only to enter Ukraine with supervision from Red Cross. He added that the country has seen an inflow of Russian mercenaries and that the separatist rebels had clear dependence on Russia. Saw no threat to Russian gas flow to EU
- BOJ official said to consider cutting growth forecast for FY14 from current 1.0% forecast
- Thailand Central Bank: Recent THB currency (Baht) strength in line with regional peers. Recent weaker US data and foreign direct investment into Thailand had also aided sentiment

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX ranges remain in tight ranges with trading light on the Assumption Day public holiday in Europe.
- Recent disappointing data out of Europe has kept pressure on ECB to do more but dealers pondered why the EUR/USD was not at 1.30 at this time.
- The GBP/USD steady at 1.6690 after rate hike expectations have been pushed back again. The second reading of Q2 GDP was roughly in line with its advance reading. GBP/USD remained poised for its 6th straight week of losses (longest streak since Jun 2010)

Political/In the Papers:
- (IQ) Outgoing PM Maliki agrees to step down from power, pledges to back new PM Al-Abadi
- (CN) PBoC may conduct a selective interest rate cut in H2; Unlikely to cut overall RRR or interest rates
- (JP) Two members of Japan PM Abe's cabinet visited the controversial Yasukuni war shrine on the anniversary of the end of WWII.
- (US) Fed Chair Yellen to deliver her Jackson Hole address Friday, Aug 22nd at 10:00ET, focusing on labor markets

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (AT) Austria Sovereign Debt Rating published by Fitch
- (IE) Ireland Sovereign Debt Rating published by Fitch
- (BR) Brazilian Central Bank President Tombini Speaks in Sao Paulo
- (RU) Russia President Putin meets with Finland President Niinistoe
- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell I/L Bonds
- 06:00 (EU) EU Foreign Ministers hold emergency meeting in Brussels
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment vs. 4.0Be
- 06:05 (UK) DMO to sell combined 3.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills

- 06:45 (SG)
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (IL) Israel July CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: -0.4%e v -0.6% prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Jun Economic Activity Index M/M: -1.5%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -2.2%e v -0.2% prior
- 07:30 (TR) Turkey TCMB Survey of Expectations
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Aug 1st: No est v $320.0B prior
- 08:00 (IS) Iceland July Unemployment Rate: No est v 3.2% prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Dir Hamilton Araujo in Sao Paulo
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Aug Empire Manufacturing: 20.0e v 25.6 prior
- 08:30 (US) July PPI Final Demand M/M: 0.1%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.9% prior

- 08:30 (US) July PPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.6%e v 1.8% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada re-release of July Net Change in Employment: +20.0Ke v -9.4K prior; Unemployment Rate: 7.1%e v 7.1% prior; Full Time Employment Change: No est v +33.5K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v -43.0K prior; Participation Rate: No est v 66.1% prior (**Note: Canada stats agency issue correction to July Unemployment data)
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jun Manufacturing Sales M/M: 0.4%e v 1.6% prior
- 09:00 (US) Jun Net Long-term TIC Flows: No est v $19.4B prior; Total Net TIC Flows: No est v $35.5B prior
- 09:00 (CA) Canada July Existing Home Sales M/M: No est v 0.8% prior
- 09:15 (US) July Industrial Production M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Capacity Utilization: 79.2%e v 79.1% prior; Manufacturing Production: 0.4%e v 0.1% prior
- 09:45 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota on community banking
- 09:55 (US) Aug Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 82.5e v 81.8 prior
- 14:00 (CO) Colombia Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina July Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 27.7% prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Jun Retail Sales Y/Y: 7.2%e v 8.1% prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Jun Industrial Production Y/Y: 3.9%e v 2.0% prior
- (AR) Argentina July National Urban CPI M/M: no est v 1.3% prior
- (PE) Peru Jun Economic Activity Index Y/Y: No est v 1.8% prior
- (PE) Peru July Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.7% prior




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