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Monday August 18, 2014 - 10:51:52 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Lines of dialogue remain open between Russia and Ukraine

Mon, 18 Aug 2014 5:10 AM EST

- BOE Gov Carney hints that real wage growth would not have to turn positive before starting raising interest rates
- Russia Foreign Ministry stated that it agreed to continue talks with Ukraine following meeting in Berlin on Sunday, Aug 17th

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (CZ) Czech July PPI Industrial M/M: 0.3% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.3%e (7th straight month of annual declines)
- (CZ) Czech Jun Export Price Index Y/Y: 4.0% v 3.0% prior; Import Price Index Y/Y: 2.3% v 1.0% prior
- (CH) SNB Sight Deposits for week ended Aug 15th (CHF): 313.3B v 309.5B prior
- (EU) ECB 4.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 180.0M prior; 19.8B parked in deposit facility vs. 18.8B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden Q2 Industry Capacity: 88.9% v 88.6% prior
- (ES) Spain Jun Trade Balance: -1.5B v -1.8B prior
- (ES) Spain June Bad Loan Ratio: 13.1% v 13.4% prior
- (IL) Israel Aug CPI Forecast: 1.1% v 1.3% prior
- (IL) Israel July M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 19.0% v 18.2% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong July Unemployment Rate: 3.3% v 3.2%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun Trade Balance (Seasonally Adj): 13.8B v 15.0Be; Trade Balance NSA (unadj): 16.8B v 15.1Be

Indices [Stoxx50 +1%
, FTSE 100 +0.6% at 6,726, DAX +1.4% at 9,222, CAC-40 +1% at 4,221, IBEX-35 +0.7% at 10,295, FTSE MIB +0.8% at 19,634, SMI +0.9% at 8,438, S&P 500 Futures +0.4% at 1,960]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open sharply higher following the big losses seen on Friday, DAX leads gains, UK homebuilder Bovis reports sharp rise in H1 profits and gives no comments on property market outlook, US event risks for the week (CPI, July housing data, FOMC minutes, Aug 22nd Yellen Jackson Hole comments)

By Sector
- Technology
[United Internet UTDI.DE +3% (acquisition), Arm Holdings ARM.UK +1% (broker commentary)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Bovis Homes BVS.UK +2% (H1 profits +166% y/y)]
- Energy [Neste Oil NES1V.FI -2% (production cut)]
- Healthcare [Roche ROG.CH +1% (speculation related to Chugai Pharmaceuticals)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Consumer Cyclical +1.4%, Technology +1.4%, Industrials +1.4%, Telecom +1.3%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +1.3%, Utilities +1%, Energy +0.9%, Financials +0.8%]

- Russian Central Bank (CBR) announced changed to its Ruble currency policy; to widen basket range from 7 to 9 RUB; effective immediately
. It added that it still planned to shift to RUB currency free float in 2014
- France Fin Min Sapin reiterates the French view that the Euro currency needed to return to more normal level (aka its currently too strong). Reduction of French deficit must be compatible with growth
- Italy Fin Min Padoan expected lower growth in Italy and would have to revise projections for budget. Convinced that ECB was getting ready to do more on inflation (**Note: Italian press reported stated Italy might need 20B in budget adjustments in 2015)
- Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Pro-Russian separatists destroyed Ukraine military unit that was planning on derailing humanitarian aid
- Philippines Central Bank (BSP) Gov Tetangco: Inflation within policy horizon would remain within target; could see upward blips in monthly data
- China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM): Facing pressure in meeting annual trade growth forecast of 7.5%; July export data showed initial signs of export recovery

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The week began on a quiet note with USD appearing to have entered a corrective/consolidative phase given its mixed performance over the past week
- The EUR/USD maintained its Aug clear trading range wit 1.3333 as key support.
- The USD/JPY remained well within its 200 pip range between 101-103 that has confined the price action since mid-April

Political/In the Papers:
- Results of talks in Berlin: Russia, France, and German Foreign Ministries plan talks on possible written agreements for aid. Govts have agreed to delivery of humanitarian aid but no progress on cease-fire in Ukraine

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (LV) German Chancellor Merkel in Latvia
- (BR) Brazil Aug CNI Industrial Confidence: No est v 46.4 prior
- 06:00 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell combined 2.0-4.0B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:00 (RU) Russia July PPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 7.0%e v 8.9% prior
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming 6-month and 12-Month Bill auction
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jun Int'l Securities Transactions: C$5.0Be v C$21.4B prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Q2 GDP Q/Q: 0.0%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 2.6% prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Q2 Current Account Balance: -$500Me v $795M prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 6.8-8.0B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:00 (PL) Poland July YTD Budget Balance Level (PLN): No est v -25.3B prior; Budget Balance Performance: No est v 53.4% prior
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 10:00 (US) Aug NAHB Housing Market Index: 53e v 53 prior
- 10:30 (UK) DMO quarterly consultations with GEMMs and end investors
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.095-1.15B in notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $54B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 16:00 (US) Crop Condition Report
-21:30 (AU) RBA Aug Minutes




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