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Tuesday August 19, 2014 - 09:22:34 GMT -

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U.K. Inflation Data Softer. Housing Data From U.S. All Week

U.K. Inflation Data Softer. Housing Data From U.S. All Week
August 19, 2014 09:30 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
European markets remain in a clear RISK-ON posture early on Tuesday. The impetus for trade today has been the release of softer than expected U.K. inflation data. Equities are up broadly.and bond yields are lower. The EURUSD is pivoting 1.3350.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have eased  again. The 10-yr bund is 1.00% =2 bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.39%  -4bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is mow expected for November 2014 or February 2015, depending on data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.38%, -1bp. The major focus is the Yellen speech Friday in Jackson Hole. The psychological pivot has become  2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed higher. Bourses in Europe are up. U.S. share futures are higher.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- CPI, Housing Starts & Permits
  • U.K. July inflation data were softer than expected and if sustained would raise doubts  about a November policy tightening by the Bank of England. Gilt yields and the GBP have have fallen on the news. 
  • Today sees U.S. CPI. plus Housing Starts and building Permits..This is an active week for U.S. Housing data.
  • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.   .
  • Wednesday sees the latest Bank of England and Fed policy minutes.
  • Thursday sees a slew of flash PMI reports, U.K. Retail Sales and several U.S. items.
  •  Friday sees Canadian inflation and Retail Sales data. Also Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium. 
  • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items:

8:30 GB CPI
12:30 US CPI
12:30 US House Start & Permits
8:30 GB BOE Minutes
18:00 FRB Fed Minutes
1:45 CN HSBC flash PMI
7:28 DE MFG PMI flash
7:58 EZ  MFG PMI flash
8:30 GB Ret Sls
12:30 US Initial Claims
13:45 US MKt MFG PMI flash
14:00 US Philly Fed
14:00 US Existing Homes Sales
12:30 CA CPI
12:30 CA Retail Sales
14:00 FRB Yellen Jackson Hole
18:30 EZ Draghi Jackson Hole

Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
19/08/14 12:30 A US CPI m 0.10% 0.30%
19/08/14 12:30 A US CPI yy 2.00% 2.10%
19/08/14 12:30 A US core CPI m 0.20% 0.10%
19/08/14 12:30 A US core CPI yy 1.90% 1.90%
19/08/14 12:30 A US House Starts 970 893
19/08/14 12:30 A US House Permits 1000 973
20/08/14 0:00 WEDNESDAY
20/08/14 8:30 A GB BOE Minutes n/a n/a
20/08/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
20/08/14 14:30 A US EIA Distillate mn n/a -1.4
20/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a -1.2
20/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a -2.4
20/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 91.60%
20/08/14 18:00 A FRB Fed Minutes n/a n/a
21/08/14 0:00 THURSDAY
21/08/14 1:35 B JP fl Mfg PMI 51.5 50.5
21/08/14 1:45 A CN HSBC flash PMI 51.5 51.7
21/08/14 7:00 B FR MFG PMI flash 47.8 47.8
21/08/14 7:00 B FR SVC PMI flash 47.8 50.4
21/08/14 7:28 A DE MFG PMI flash 51.5 52.4
21/08/14 7:58 A EZ flash MFG PMI n/a n/a
21/08/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls mm 0.40% 0.10%
21/08/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls yy 3.00% 3.60%
21/08/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls x-fuel mm 0.40% -0.10%
21/08/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls X-fuel yy 3.50% 4.00%
21/08/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.544
21/08/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 300 311
21/08/14 13:45 A US Mfg MKt PMI flash 55.7 55.8
21/08/14 14:00 C EZ Cons Conf prelim -9.1 -8.4
21/08/14 14:00 A US Philly Fed 20 23
21/08/14 14:00 B US Lead Ind 0.60% 0.30%
21/08/14 14:00 A US Existing Home 5 5.04
21/08/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 78
22/08/14 0:00 FRIDAY
22/08/14 12:30 A CA BOC CPI Apr y n/a 1.80%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA CPI mm 0.20% 0.10%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA CPI yy 2.20% 2.40%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA Retail Sales 0.40% 0.70%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA Sales x-autos n/a 0.10%
22/08/14 14:00 A FRB Yellen Jackson Hole n/a n/a
22/08/14 18:30 A EZ Draghi Jackson Hole n/a n/a
22/08/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 19 Feb 2018
00:00 CN, US- Holiday
Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday
A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey
Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday
A All Day flash PMIs
A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
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AA 19:00 US- Fed Meeting Minutes
Thu 22 Feb 2018
A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 09:30 GB- GDP
AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 23 Feb 2018
A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP
AA 13:30 CA- CPI

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