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Tuesday August 19, 2014 - 10:44:53 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: UK CPI comes in below expectations given BOE more room/reasons to continue pause

Tue, 19 Aug 2014 5:21 AM EST

- Risk appetite continues to gain traction as global geopolitical concerns ease
- RBA minutes echoes post rate decision statement (reiterates most prudent course likely a period of rate stability)
- Kiwi currency hurt by softer PPI data and downgrade of economic projections from New Zealand Treasury
- Russian humanitarian aid convoy still awaiting the green light to enter Ukraine
- UK CPI remains below BOE's 2% target for the 5th straight month; weighed down by price wars among clothing and footwear retailers

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (JP) Japan Jun Final Leading Index CI: 105.9 v 105.5 prelim; Coincident Index: 109.7 v 109.4 prelim
- (JP) Japan July Nationwide Dept Sales Y/Y: -2.5% v -4.6% prior; Tokyo Dept Sales Y/Y: -1.4% v -4.1% prior
- (JP) Japan July Final Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: 37.7% v 37.7% prelim
- (EU) ECB 5M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 40.0M prior; 18.8B parked in deposit facility vs. 19.8B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun Current Account SA: 13.1B v 19.8B prior; Current Account NSA: 20.8 v 9.3B prior
- (UK) July CPI M/M: -0.3% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.8%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.9%e
- (UK) July RPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.6%e; RPI Ex-Mortgage Interest Payments (RPIX) Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.6%e; Retail Price Index: 256.0 v 256.2e
- (UK) July PPI Input M/M: -1.6% v -1.0%; Y/Y: -7.3% v -6.4%e
- (UK) July PPI Output M/M: -0.1% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v 0.0%e

- (UK) July PPI Output Core M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e
- (UK) Jun ONS House Price Y/Y: 10.2% 10.2%e
- (IT) Italy Jun Current Account Balance: 3.1B v 1.9B prior

Fixed Income
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 4.55B vs. 3.5-4.5B indicated range in 6-Month and 12-Month Bills
- Sold 992M in 6-month bills; Avg Yield: 0.080% v 0.146% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.42x v 3.86x prior
- Sold 3.55B in 12-month bills; Avg Yield: 0.160% v 0.294% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.9x v 2.04x prior
- (NO) Norway sold NOK3.0B vs. NOK3.0B indicated in 3% 2024 Bonds; Yield: 2.35% v 2.44% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.48x v 3.15x
- (EU) ECB allotted 107.6B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.15% vs. 105.0Be
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF714.0M in 6-month Bills; Yield: -0.051%

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.5%
, FTSE 100 +0.5% at 6,775, DAX +1% at 9,335, CAC-40 +0.5% at 4,250, IBEX-35 +0.5% at 10,408, FTSE MIB flat at 19,629, SMI +0.5% at 8,492, S&P 500 Futures +0.2% at 1,971]

- Market Focal Points/Key themes: Equity markets extend the gains seen on Monday's session (again led by the DAX) amid lack of significant news flow out of Russia/Ukraine, Russia's MICEX trades higher, BHP declines as FY results miss expectations (confirms demerger proposal), Maersk gains on better than expected Q2 results and buyback, UK homebuilders continue to report sharply higher H1 profits with little in terms of outlook for H2 (Persimmon),

By Sector
- Industrials
[Maersk MAERSKB.DK +5% (Q2 results above ests, buyback), Wood Group WG.UK +3% (reaffirmed outlook)]
- Basic Resources/Materials [ThyssenKrupp TKA.DE +1.5% (CEO commentary); BHP BLT.UK -3.5% (FY profits below ests, does not announce buyback)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Sixt SIX2.DE +4% (Q2 sales above ests), Imperial Tobacco IMT.UK +2% (reaffirmed outlook), Fraport FRA.DE +1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Healthcare [Bayer BAYN.DE +1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Consumer Cyclical +0.8%, Technology +0.7%, Industrials +0.5%, Telecom +0.4%, Energy +0.4%, Utilities +0.3%, Financials +0.3%, Basic Materials +0.3%, Consumer Non-Cyclical flat]

- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves testified in Parliament
Important that inflation must move towards its target and it could become expansionary if inflation estimate was lowered. He also stressed that it needed measures to slow household debt and that policy could be adjusted to address this issue as well
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Floden testified that higher interest rates would not lower risks with private debt but would contribute to a stronger SEK currency, lower inflation and slower economy
- German Bundesbank's Dombret reiterated view that reform fatigue was one of the biggest dangers in EMU
- Ukraine Central Bank raises Overnight Refinancing Rate by 250bps to 17.50%; effective immediately
- Red Cross hoped for safety guarantee tomorrow (Aug 20th) for Russian aid
- Russia govt spokesperson Peskov: Any format for Ukraine talks is possible bt too soon to discuss Porshenko meeting
- Ukraine PM Yatsenyuk: IMF might approve aid tranche on Aug 29th

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- GBP/USD currency slumped to its lowest level since April following softer-than-expected inflation data. Price wars among clothing and footwear retailers helped the YoY CPI reading to come in at 1.6% (two-tenths below expectations). The significant decline in input PPI suggested that the weakness could persist next month. GBP/USD tested 1.6630 before stabilizing.
- The EUR/USD remained locked within its Aug range but probing the lower end once again. Option barriers remain in effect below 1.3330 area but seem vulnerable
- The NZD currency (Kiwi) saw a steep decline following the release of Q2 PPI data coupled with a downgrade of economic projections from the Treasury's pre-election fiscal update

Political/In the Papers:
- (JP) Japan PM Abe said to be retaining Fin Min Aso, Econ Min Amari during cabinet reshuffle on Sept 3rd
- (CN) China Construction Bank source saying mortgage policy not changed in Shanghai; Denies speculation to offer 20% discount on first-home mortgage rates
- (IQ) US Pres Obama: Continue to see important progress in fight against ISIS in Iraq - press conf
- (IL) Follow-up: Hamas official now stating that a ceasefire is only expected to be extended for 24 hours as delegates work to complete negotiations on a long term truce

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Jun Manufacturing Production M/M: No est v 1.4% prior
- 06:00 (PL) Portugal July PPI M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.4% prior
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell 1.5B in 6-month Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Aug IGP-M Inflation (2nd Preview): -0.3%e v -0.5% prelim
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (RU) Russia July Real Retail Sales M/M: 2.5%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 0.9%e v 0.7% prior
- 08:00 (RU) Russia July Unemployment Rate: 5.0%e v 4.9% prior

- 08:00 (RU) Russia July Real Disposable Income: -3.0%e v -2.9% prior
- 08:00 (RU) Russia July Real Wages Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.7% prior
- 08:00 (RU) Russia July Investment in Productive Capacity: -1.0%e v +0.5% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland July Average Gross Wages M/M: 0.9%e v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: 3.8%e v 3.5% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland July Employment M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.8%e v 0.7% prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) July CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 2.1% prior
- 08:30 (US) July CPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.9%e v 1.9% prior

- 08:30 (US) July CPI Index NSA: 238.342e v 238.343 prior; CPI Core Index SA: No est v 238.083 prior
- 08:30 (US) July Housing Starts: 968Ke v 893Kprior; Building Permits: 1.0Me v 973K prior (revised from 963K)
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves:
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves data
- 10:30 (UK) DMO announce size of upcoming 0.625% I/L 2040 Gilt auction
- 11:00 (UR) Ukraine to sell 2-Year, 5-Year and 7-Year Bonds
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.25-0.35 Bln Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week and 52-Week Bills
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Q2 Unemployment Rate: 7.8%e v 7.1% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Jun Trade Balance: No est v $347.4M prior; Total Imports: No est v $5.4B prior
- 19:30 (AU) RBA Gov Stevens semi-annual testimony before House Economic Committee
- 19:50 (JP) Japan July Trade Balance: -713.9B v -822.2B prior; Adj Trade Balance: -761.3Be v -1.0808T prior
- (AK) Alaska Holds Primary Elections
- (WY) Wyoming Holds Primary Elections


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Mon 15 Oct 2018
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
Tue 16 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
Wed 17 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 09:00 EZ- Final HICP
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Thu 18 Oct 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
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