U.S Data Mixed. U.K. Inflation Data Softer. BOE and Fed Policy Minutes on Wednesday

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Tuesday August 19, 2014 - 18:53:54 GMT
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U.S Data Mixed. U.K. Inflation Data Softer. BOE and Fed Policy Minutes on Wednesday

U.S Data Mixed. U.K. Inflation Data Softer. BOE and Fed Policy Minutes on Wednesday
August 20, 2014 00:00 gmt

Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
European markets remain in a RISK-ON posture late Tuesday. The impetus for trade today was softer than expected U.K. inflation and mixed U.S. data. Equities are up broadly.and bond yields are lower. The EURUSD is testing below 1.3350.

Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have eased. The 10-yr bund is 1.00% -2 bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.40% -3bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is mow expected for November 2014 or February 2015, depending on data.

U.S.10-yr yield is 2.40%, +1bp. The major focus is the Yellen speech Friday in Jackson Hole. The psychological pivot has become 2.40%.

Far East equities closed higher. Bourses in Europe are ending up. U.S. share futures are higher.

The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: GB- BOE Minutes, US- Weekly Mortgages, Weekly Crude, Fed Minutes

Wednesday sees the latest Bank of England and Fed policy minutes.

July U.S. Housing Starts rebounded by a lot more than expected when they were released on Tuesday. Analysts credited multi-family dwellings for the surge. The impact of the data was muted by softer than expected July CPI data. The data suggest that the Fed is not behind the curve in managing inflation.

U.K. July inflation data were softer than expected and if sustained would raise doubts about a November policy tightening by the Bank of England. Gilt yields and the GBP have have fallen on the news.

Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. .

Thursday sees a slew of flash PMI reports, U.K. Retail Sales and several U.S. items.
Friday sees Canadian inflation and Retail Sales data. Also Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):

WEDNESDAY
8:30 GB BOE Minutes
18:00 FRB Fed Minutes
THURSDAY
1:45 CN HSBC flash PMI
7:28 DE MFG PMI flash
7:58 EZ MFG PMI flash
8:30 GB Retail Sales
12:30 US Initial Claims
13:45 US MKt MFG PMI flash
14:00 US Philly Fed
14:00 US Existing Homes Sales
FRIDAY
12:30 CA CPI
12:30 CA Retail Sales
14:00 FRB Yellen Jackson Hole
18:30 EZ Draghi Jackson Hole

FOREX CALENDAR

Time Imp Country Title Cons Last

20/08/14 8:30 A GB BOE Minutes n/a n/a

20/08/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a

20/08/14 14:30 A US EIA Distillate mn n/a -1.4

20/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a -1.2

20/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a -2.4

20/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 91.60%

20/08/14 18:00 A FRB Fed Minutes n/a n/a

21/08/14 0:00 THURSDAY

21/08/14 1:35 B JP fl Mfg PMI 51.5 50.5

21/08/14 1:45 A CN HSBC flash PMI 51.5 51.7

21/08/14 7:00 B FR MFG PMI flash 47.8 47.8

21/08/14 7:00 B FR SVC PMI flash 47.8 50.4

21/08/14 7:28 A DE MFG PMI flash 51.5 52.4

21/08/14 7:58 A EZ flash MFG PMI n/a n/a

21/08/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls mm 0.40% 0.10%

21/08/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls yy 3.00% 3.60%

21/08/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls x-fuel mm 0.40% -0.10%

21/08/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls X-fuel yy 3.50% 4.00%

21/08/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.544

21/08/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 300 311

21/08/14 13:45 A US Mfg MKt PMI flash 55.7 55.8

21/08/14 14:00 C EZ Cons Conf prelim -9.1 -8.4

21/08/14 14:00 A US Philly Fed 20 23

21/08/14 14:00 B US Lead Ind 0.60% 0.30%

21/08/14 14:00 A US Existing Home 5 5.04

21/08/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 78

22/08/14 0:00 FRIDAY

22/08/14 12:30 A CA BOC CPI Apr y n/a 1.80%

22/08/14 12:30 A CA CPI mm 0.20% 0.10%

22/08/14 12:30 A CA CPI yy 2.20% 2.40%

22/08/14 12:30 A CA Retail Sales 0.40% 0.70%

22/08/14 12:30 A CA Sales x-autos n/a 0.10%

22/08/14 14:00 A FRB Yellen Jackson Hole n/a n/a

22/08/14 18:30 A EZ Draghi Jackson Hole n/a n/a

22/08/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

John M. Bland is a founding partner of Global-View.com. He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.

Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 15 Oct 2018
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
Tue 16 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
Wed 17 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 09:00 EZ- Final HICP
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
Thu 18 Oct 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 19 OCt 2018
AA 12:30 CA- CPI/ Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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Tuesday August 19, 2014 - 18:53:54 GMT global-view.com - www.global-view.com