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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: BOE Minutes shows first dissent on interest rates in over three years


Wed, 20 Aug 2014 5:15 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- BOE Aug Minutes shows first dissent since July 2011 (Vote was 7-2 to keep rates steady with Weale and Mccafferty dissenting
- Japan posted its 25th consecutive month of trade deficit and the shortfall was wider than expected (-964.0B vs. -713.9Be)
- FOMC Minutes likely to be mixed bag of dovish and hawkish commentary with focus on any further insight on the exit strategy

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (JP) Japan Jun All Industry Activity Index M/M: -0.4% v -0.4%e
- (DE) Germany July PPI M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: % v -0.7%e
- (JP) Japan July Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: -0.7 v -1.9% prior (4th straight decline)
- (EU) ECB 29M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 5.0M prior; 20.7B parked in deposit facility vs. 18.8B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NL) Netherlands Aug Consumer Confidence Index: -6 v -3e
- (TW) Taiwan July Export Orders Y/Y: 5.7% v 7.3%e
- (ZA) South Africa July CPI M/M: 0.8% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 6.3% v 6.4%e
- (ZA) South Africa July CPI Core M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 5.7% v 5.6%e
- (GR) Greece Jun Current Account: +1.3B v -0.3B prior
- (TW) Taiwan Q2 Current Account Balance: $16.5B v $15.5B prior
- (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Minutes: Vote was 7 to 2 to hold Interest Rates steady at 0.50% (first dissent since June 2013 and first under Gov Carny's tenure)
- (IS) Iceland Central Bank (Sedlabanki) left its 7-Day Lending Rate unchanged at 6.00% (14th straight pause in current tightening cycle)
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun Construction Output M/M: -0.7% v -1.4% prior; Y/Y: -2.3% v 4.4% prior
- (MY) Malaysia July CPI Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.3%e

Fixed Income
- (IN) India sold total INR130B vs. INR130B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- (EU) ECB allotted $75M in 7-day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.59% vs. $75M prior
- (SE) Sweden sold total SEK3.5B in 2020 and 2025 Bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities***
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.3%, FTSE 100 -0.3% at 6,761, DAX -0.3% at 9,301, CAC-40 -0.4% at 4,239, IBEX-35 flat at 10,387, FTSE MIB flat at 19,634, SMI flat at 8,527, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 1,974]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open slightly lower following recent gains, FTSE 100 weighed down by ex-dividends, Beer makers in focus (Heineken beats, Carlsberg cuts outlook on Russia), Vestas Wind results above ests amid margin expansion, Glencore shares supported by H1 profits and buyback, Siemens supported by broker commentary, Upcoming US retailer earnings (Lowes, Staples, Target)

By Sector:
- Consumer Discretionary
[Luxottica LUX.IT -4% (concerns related to CEO), Carlsberg CARLB.DK -4% (cut outlook), Heineken HEIA.NL +6% (H1 profits above ests)]
- Energy [Vopak VPK.NL +12% (upbeat outlook), Vestas Wind VWS.DK +3% (raised margin forecast)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Glencore GLEN.UK +0.5% (H1 profits above ests, buyback)]
- Industrials [Balfour Beatty BBY.UK -6% (rejected revised offer from Carillion)]
- Financials [HSBC HSBA.UK -0.9% (ex-dividend)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Telecom -0.9%, Utilities -0.6%, Basic Materials -0.5%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.4%, Consumer Cyclical -0.3%, Financials -0.3%, Technology -0.2%, Financials -0.2%, Energy -0.2%, Industrials -0.1%]

**Speakers***
- BOE Minutes noted that the MPC majority saw merit in waiting to see more evidence of pay growth
. Members Weale, Mccafferty dissented and voted for 25bps rate hike. They believed an early rate hike could keep increases gradual. Most MPC member said unexpected hike could push the pound higher and be a headwind for rebalancing of the economy but expected downside risk of raising rates to diminish over time
- France President Hollande confirmed planning new measures to support housing construction and reiterated euro was still overvalued. Announced tax reform, welfare benefits to help lower-income households.
- Economist Stiglitz: Europe needs a fiscal union; its austerity measure is a dismal failure
- Kurdish ministers said to have rejoined the Iraqi government
- Norway PM Solberg saw room for maneuver in EU sanctions and believed what is defined by sanctions as Artic ice, deep water is not wholly clear. Statoil must follow US sanctions because it is listed in NY; working to determine impact of sanctions
- Sweden Govt said to consider new taxes to help meet its planned budget surplus target by 2018. Might propose taxes on banks and commercial properties and raise taxes on hydro and nuclear power

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- US Dollar Index at 6-month high as US fundamentals improve heading into European morning and managed to hold onto the bulk of its gains. The EUR/USD hit a fresh 11-month low after testing below the 1.3294 level. USD/JP Y hit its highest level since April and approached the 103.30 level ahead of the NY morning.
- The GBP/USD rebounded from its recent 4-month lows after BOE Minutes showed the first split in the interest rate vote in over three years (first such instance under tenure of Gov Carney) . MPC member Weale, Mccafferty sought a for 25bps rate hike. The GBP/USD pair tested the 1.6680 level which corresponded to its 200-day moving average before consolidating. The 10-year Gilt yiled moved about 4bps higher in the aftermath to test 2.44%

Political/In the Papers:
- (AU) RBA's Gov Stevens: Economic forecasts may prove conservative; Recent data suggests Sept quarter may have got off to a reasonable start
- (UR) Ukraine, the EU and Russia to hold high-level talks in Minsk, Belarus on August 26th (includes Russia's Putin and Ukraine Porshenko)
- T-Mobile US: Iliad said to be seeking assistance from Google and Microsoft in waging another bid for T-Mobile - NYPost
- (AR) Argentina President Fernandez: Seeking approval from Congress to allow bondholders to swap their current debt issued under foreign laws for debt issued under local law in move to circumvent US Supreme Court ruling

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IL) Israel July Leading 'S' Indicator M/M: No est v 0.1% prior
- (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 5.0B in new 2016 Schatz
- 05:30 (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to sell combined 1.0B in 3-Month and 12-Month Bills

- 06:00 (UK) Aug CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: 4e v 2 prior; Selling Prices: No est v -4 prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Jun Manufacturing Production M/M: No est v 1.4% prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Aug 15th: No est v -2.7% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland July Sold Industrial Output M/M: +1.7%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.7% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland July PPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -1.8%e v -1.7% prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Aug IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 6.5%e v 6.5% prior
- 08:00 - (DE) German Chancellor Merkel speaks at Economists' Conference, Lindau
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jun Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 0.5%e v 2.2% prior
- 09:00 (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Gov Olsen speaks in Oslo
- 10:30 (US) DOE weekly Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Weekly Currency Flows
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 30-Year Real-Return Bonds
- 14:00 (US) Fed Minutes from July 29-30 FOMC Meeting
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun Economic Activity Index M/M: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: -0.2%e v -0.2% prior
- 21:35 (JP) Japan Aug Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: No est v 50.5 prior
- 21:45 (CN) China Aug Preliminary HSBC Manufacturing PMI: 51.5e v 51.7 prior
- (BR) Socialists Party leadership to meet in Brasilia on Silva candidacy to formally replace Campos (following his death)

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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