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Wednesday August 20, 2014 - 18:41:35 GMT -

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Fed and BOE Policy Minutes More Hawkish than Thought. Rates Up

Fed and BOE Policy Minutes More Hawkish than Thought. Rates Up
August 20, 2014 09:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
European markets remain in  a mixed RISK-ON posture late on Wednesday. The key impetus for trade has been Bank of England policy minutes which saw two members vote for an immediate policy tightening. The EURUSD is testing just below 1.3300.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have turned mixed. The 10-yr bund is 0.99% -1 bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are lower. ECB president Draghi speaks late Friday from Jackson Hole.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.42%  +2bp. I now expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.42%, +2bp. A major focus is Fed Char Yellen's speech Friday in Jackson Hole. The psychological pivot is now 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are mostly weaker. U.S. shares are up modestly.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP, CN, EZ, DE, FR, US,  flash PMIs, GB- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobs, Philly Fed, LEI, Existing Homes
  • Thursday sees a slew of flash PMI reports, U.K. Retail Sales and several U.S. items. 
  • Fed policy minutes released in the early afternoon in NYC  had a more hawkish tone than expected the 2-yr note increased to 0.46% +2bps vs. beforehand. This was USD constructive. Watch upcoming U.S. data closely.
  • The Bank of England Policy Board minutes surprised traders with two member dissenting in the latest interest rate vote. Members  Weale and McCafferty both voted for an immediate +25bp rate hike. The GBP traded higher on the surprise.  I still do not see a rate hike before the start of 2015.
  • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.   .
  •  Friday sees Canadian inflation and Retail Sales data. Also Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium. 
  • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):

1:45 CN HSBC flash PMI
7:28 DE MFG PMI flash
7:58 EZ  MFG PMI flash
8:30 GB Retail Sales
12:30 US Initial Claims
13:45 US MKt MFG PMI flash
14:00 US Philly Fed
14:00 US Existing Homes Sales
12:30 CA CPI
12:30 CA Retail Sales
14:00 FRB Yellen Jackson Hole
18:30 EZ Draghi Jackson Hole

Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
21/08/14 1:35 B JP fl Mfg PMI 51.5 50.5
21/08/14 1:45 A CN HSBC flash PMI 51.5 51.7
21/08/14 7:00 B FR MFG PMI flash 47.8 47.8
21/08/14 7:00 B FR SVC PMI flash 50.2 50.4
21/08/14 7:28 A DE MFG PMI flash 51.5 52.4
21/08/14 7:28 A DE SVC PMI flash 55.5 56.7
21/08/14 7:58 A EZ flash MFG PMI 51.3 51.8
21/08/14 7:58 A EZ flash SVC PMI 53.5 54.3
21/08/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls mm 0.40% 0.10%
21/08/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls yy 3.00% 3.60%
21/08/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls x-fuel mm 0.40% -0.10%
21/08/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls X-fuel yy 3.50% 4.00%
21/08/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.544
21/08/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 300 311
21/08/14 13:45 A US Mfg MKt PMI flash 55.7 55.8
21/08/14 14:00 C EZ Cons Conf prelim -9.1 -8.4
21/08/14 14:00 A US Philly Fed 20 23
21/08/14 14:00 B US Lead Ind 0.60% 0.30%
21/08/14 14:00 A US Existing Home 5 5.04
21/08/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 78
22/08/14 0:00 FRIDAY
22/08/14 12:30 A CA BOC CPI Apr y n/a 1.80%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA CPI mm 0.20% 0.10%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA CPI yy 2.20% 2.40%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA Retail Sales 0.40% 0.70%
22/08/14 12:30 A CA Sales x-autos n/a 0.10%
22/08/14 14:00 A FRB Yellen Jackson Hole n/a n/a
22/08/14 18:30 A EZ Draghi Jackson Hole n/a n/a
22/08/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 19 Feb 2018
00:00 CN, US- Holiday
Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday
A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey
Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday
A All Day flash PMIs
A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
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A 09:30 GB- GDP
AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 23 Feb 2018
A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP
AA 13:30 CA- CPI

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