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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Major European PMI Surveys come in mixed again

 
Thu, 21 Aug 2014 5:15 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- USD maintains its gains after FOMC Minutes noted a better than expected trajectory in the labor market
- Japan Aug Preliminary Manufacturing PMI hits 5-month high; 3rd straight month of expansion (52.4 v 51.5 prior)
- China Aug Preliminary HSBC Manufacturing PMI registers its first sequential decline in 5 months to a 3-month low (50.3 v 51.5e )
- Major European PMI Surveys come in mixed but showed Germany not yet seeing any widespread evidence of the Ukraine crisis pummeling it

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (JP) Japan July Supermarket Sales Y/Y: -2.1% v -2.8% prior
- (CH) Swiss July Trade Balance (CHF): 4.0B v 1.9Be; Real Exports M/M: 0.2% v 6.0% prior; Real Imports M/M: -10.2% v +10.8% prior
- (FR) France Aug Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 46.5 v 47.8e; Services PMI: 51.1 v 50.2e
- (CH) Swiss July M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 3.5 v 4.1% prior
- (DK) Denmark July Retail Sales M/M: -0.1% v +0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v +0.1% prior
- (DK) Denmark Aug Consumer Confidence: 11.4 v 8.0e
- (EU) ECB 19M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 29.0M prior; 18.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 20.7B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (DE) Germany Aug Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 52.0 v 51.5e; Services PMI: 56.4 v 55.5e
- (SE) Sweden July Unemployment Rate: 7.1% v 7.4%e; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 7.7% v 7.9%e
- (SE) Sweden Q2 Total Number of Employees Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.4% prior
- (NL) Netherlands July Unemployment Rate: 8.2% v 8.4% prior
- (NL) Netherlands July House Price Index M/M: 0.8% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.2% prior
- (NO) Norway Q2 GDP Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.5%e; GDP Mainland Q/Q: 1.2% v 0.6%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Aug Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 50.8 v 51.3e; Services PMI: 53.5 v 53.7e

- (UK) July Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.5%e
- (UK) July Retail Sales (Including Auto) M/M: 0.1% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 3.1%e
- (UK) July Public Finances (PSNCR): -9.7B v +11.9B prior; PSNB ex Interventions: +0.2B v -1.5Be; Public Sector Net Borrowing: -1.1B v -1.7Be

- (HK) Hong Kong July CPI Composite Y/Y: 4.0% v 3.5%e

Fixed Income
- None seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Equities***
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.6%,
FTSE 100 +0.3% at 6,776, DAX +0.4% at 9,351, CAC-40 +0.6% at 4,263, IBEX-35 +0.8% at 10,507, FTSE MIB +1% at 19,811, SMI +0.5% at 8,570, S&P 500 Futures +0.2% at 1,986]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open mostly higher as traders assess FOMC minutes ahead of Jackson Hole commentary, DAX supported by PMI data and gains in shares of Air Berlin, Swiss SMI gains amid the recent weakness in the Franc and rise in July watch exports, Austrian bank Raiffeisen beats estimates, Russian bank VTB's H1 net profit declines over 80% on higher provisions, Weakness in gold prices weighs on miners, German Aug PMI data above ests, China PMI below ests, S&P 500 Futures test prior record high near 1,986-87

By Sector
- Healthcare
[Nobel Biocare NOBN.CH +2% (raised margin forecast)]
- Financials [Raiffeisen RBI.AT +4% (Q2 profits above ests)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Air Berlin AB1.DE +8% (Q2 results improved); Kuoni KUNN.CH -7% (H1 sales declined), RTL Group RTL.BE -6% (cut outlook)]
- Technology [PV Crystalox Solar PVCS.UK -11% (reported H1 loss)]
- Industrials [GEA Group G1A.DE +2% (job cuts)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [London Mining LOND.UK -11% (cut production outlook on Ebola concerns)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Technology +0.7%, Industrials +0.7%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.6%, Energy +0.6%, Utilities +0.4%, Telecom +0.4%, Basic Materials +0.4%, Consumer Cyclical +0.4%, Financials +0.2%]

**Speakers***
- Hungary Econ Min Varga:
No dramatic fallout from Russian sanctions and saw strengthening export demand
- Russia and US to hold consultations on Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) in Sept

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD consolidated its recent gains that were underpinned by the FOMC minutes
- USD/JPY approach the 104 handle for fresh 4-month highs aided by the Fed minutes and fresh reports that ht eJapanese govt was looking to set aside 1.0T in funds in the 2015 budget to build a stimulus fund.
- EUR/USD moved off its 11-month lows of 1.3242 but remained in the process of being adjusted (to French officials delight). Dealers noted that numerous factors continue to provide a headwinds for Europe - Sanctions and dis-inflation. Ukraine situation and the impact of sanctions

Political/In the Papers:
- (JP) Japan govt said to be looking to set aside 1.0T in funds in the 2015 budget to build a stimulus fund that would include public-works projects and subsidies for small and midsize businesses
- FOMC Minutes: Felt labor market improvement had been faster than expected, conditions noticeably closer to normal; Participants differed, however, in their assessments of the remaining degree of labor market slack and how to measure it. Many participants noted that if convergence toward the Committee's objectives occurred more quickly than expected, it might become appropriate to begin removing monetary policy accommodation sooner than they currently anticipated; Most indicated that any change in their expectations for the appropriate timing of the first increase in the federal funds rate would depend on further information.
-(IQ) Pentagon is looking at plans to send a small number of additional troops to Iraq; total number would be fewer than 300, mainly to provide security for US installations in Baghdad

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell Bonds
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 3.25B in 2.75% 2024 Gilts
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Jun Manufacturing: No est v 1.4%e
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell bonds
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Aug 15th: No est v $468.6B prior
- 07:00 - (PT) Portugal Jun Current Account Balance: No est v -409.4Me
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank Aug Minutes
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil July Unemployment Rate: 5.0%e with no prior (note strike have prevented the prior two months release)
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 300Ke v 311K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.52Me v 2.544M prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Aug Consumer Confidence Index: No est v -10 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jun IGAE Economic Activity Index Y/Y: 2.5%e v 1.4% prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Q2 GDP Q/Q: 0.8%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.8% prior; GDP Nominal Y/Y: 5.1%e v 5.1% prior
- 09:45 (US) Aug Preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI: 55.6e v 55.8 prior
- 10:00 (US) Aug Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook: 19.4e v 23.9 prior
- 10:00 (US) July Existing Home Sales: 5.00Me v 5.04M prior
- 10:00 (US) July Leading Index: 0.6%e v 0.3% prior
- 10:00 (EU) Euro Zone Aug Advance Consumer Confidence: -9.1e v -8.4 prior

- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Treasury refunding announcement on 2-year, 5-year and 7-year FRNs
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.05-2.50 Bln Notes
- 11:15 (BR) Brazil to sell 2015, 2016 and 2018 Bills
- 11:15 (BR) Brazil to sell Fixed-rate 2021 and 2025 bonds
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $16B in 5-Year TIPS Reopening
- 15:00 (US) API Monthly Statistical Report
- (AR) Argentina Aug Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 42.8 prior
- Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, WY

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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