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U.S. Data Solid. China HSBC Misses, but Japan Improves. EZ PMI's Mixed to Weaker
|U.S. Data Solid. China HSBC Misses, but Japan Improves. EZ PMI's Mixed to Weaker|
August 22, 2014 00:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map
Current Market Conditions:
Markets remain in a RISK-ON mild posture late in Europe on Thursday. Flash PMI data in the Fare East and Europe were been mixed to slightly weaker than forecast. U.S. headline data were broadly stronger than forecast. EURUSD has been holding below 1.3300.
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have turned lower from earlier ahead of Draghi on Friday. The 10-yr bund is 0.99% 0bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are down.
- The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.41% -1bp. I now expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
- U.S.10-yr yield is 2.42%, -1bp. A major focus is an expected dovish Fed Char Yellen's speech Friday in Jackson Hole. The psychological pivot is 2.40%. I'm not sure Yellen will be as dovish as hoped for.
- Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are higher. U.S. shares are up.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
HIGH IMPACT NEWS:, CA- CPI, Retail Sales, US- Fed's Yellen, EZ- ECB's Draghi
- Friday sees Canadian inflation and Retail Sales data. Also Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
- U.S. data on Friday were broadly better than expected. Weekly Jobless Claims fell slightly back below the 300K line. The Markit Mfg PMI surged higher, Existing Homes sales gained strongly, while Leading Indicators and Philly Fed Index both outperformed expectations.
- In the Eurozone, the flash EZ manufacturing PMIs all weakened ; key Services PMIs fell as well except in France.U.K. Retail Sales mostly mixed street estimates.
- The August China HSBC was a disappointment as it fell. The new flash Japanese PMI improved.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
12:30 CA CPI
12:30 CA Retail Sales
14:00 FRB Yellen Jackson Hole
18:30 EZ Draghi Jackson Hole
||BOC CPI Apr y
||Yellen Jackson Hole
||Draghi Jackson Hole
Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
John M. Bland is a founding partner of Global-View.com. He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Mon 15 Oct 2018
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
Tue 16 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
Wed 17 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 09:00 EZ- Final HICP
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
Thu 18 Oct 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 19 OCt 2018
AA 12:30 CA- CPI/ Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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