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U.S. data Softer than Seen. Draghi Hint at Policy Ease as Early as Next Week. German IFO Survey Falls

U.S. data Softer than Seen. Draghi Hint at Policy Ease as Early as Next Week. German IFO Survey Falls
August 26, 2014 00:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
  Late Monday in Europe markets remain in a mixed risk posture. London markets were closed Monday for a Bank Holiday. Dovish comments by ECB President Draghi have been a weight on the EURUSD. It has been  pivoting the1.3200 line.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have fallen after the dovish Draghi comments Friday. The 10-yr bund is 0.95% -3bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are sharply lower.
  • London Markets are closed. The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.56%  +4bp. I expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.40%, -2bp. The Yellen speech Friday disappointed the doves. The psychological pivot is 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mixed. Bourses in Europe are sharply higher. U.S. shares are up with the S&P testing above 1000.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


    HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- Durable Goods, Case Shiller, Conf Board Sentiment, 2-yr
  • Tuesday sees U.S. Durable Goods, Case-Shiller Index, Richmond Fed, and the Conference Board Survey. Later there will be a 2-yr auction, Fed Discount Rate vote and weekly API data. 
  •  U.S. New Homes Sales for July fell short of street expectations. The ISM flash Service PMI weakened in August as well.  Monday was a holiday for London.
  •  The closely-followed German IFO Survey for August was even weaker than expected. There is chatter that ECB President Draghi over the weekend hinted at an ECB policy easing as early as next week. 
  • U.S. New Homes Sales are due later today. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
  • The key event Wednesday is the 5-yr auction.
  • Thursday features German employment data,  U.S. Weekly  jobless, revised GDP, Pending Homes Sales and a slew of Japanese monthend data.
  • On Friday German Retail Sales and flash EZ CPI are key. U.S. Personal Income, the Chicago PMI and final University of Michigan Sentiment are slated.
  • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):

TUESDAY
12:30 US Durable Goods Orders  Industrial Demand
14:00 US CB Consumer Confidence Important sentiment survey
17:00 TRY 2-yr Auction
WEDNESDAY
17:00 TRY 5-yr Auction
00:30 JP CPI BOJ Target
THURSDAY
07:55 DE Unemployment Key ECB metric
12:30 US Initial Claims  Employment measure
12:30 US GDP 2Q14 preliminary  Broadest measure of economy
14:00 US Pending Homes Existing Homes Predictor
17:00 TRY 7-yr Auction
FRIDAY
06:00 DE Retail Sales Consumer demand
09:00 EZ flash HICP  ECB Target
12:30 CA GDP  Broadest measure of economy
12:30 US PCE deflator Fed Target
13:55 US U Mich Survey final Important sentiment survey


FOREX CALENDAR
Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
26/08/14 12:30 A US Dur Goods 2.10% 1.70%
26/08/14 12:30 A US D/G ex-trans 0.40% 1.90%
26/08/14 13:00 B US Case-Shil 20 yy 8.20% 9.30%
26/08/14 14:00 C US Richmond Fed n/a 7
26/08/14 14:00 A US CB Consumer Conf 88.8 90.9
26/08/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 2-yr n/a n/a
26/08/14 18:00 B FRB Discount Minutes n/a n/a
26/08/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
27/08/14 0:00 WEDNESDAY
27/08/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
27/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a -4.47
27/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a 0.59
27/08/14 14:30 A US EIA Distillate mn n/a -0.96
27/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 93.40%
27/08/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 5-yr n/a n/a
28/08/14 0:00 THURSDAY
28/08/14 0:30 A JP Core CPI 3.30% 3.30%
28/08/14 0:30 A JP CPI yy 3.40% 3.60%
28/08/14 0:30 A JP Unemploy Mar 3.70% 3.70%
28/08/14 0:50 A JP Retail Sales yy 0.10% -0.60%
28/08/14 7:55 A DE unem Kchg -5 -12
28/08/14 7:55 A DE unempl rate 6.70% 6.70%
28/08/14 9:00 C EZ Cons Conf -9 -8.4
28/08/14 10:00 B GB CBI Dist Trades 25 21
28/08/14 12:30 A CA Cur/Acct C$b n/a -12.4
28/08/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.5
28/08/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 300 298
28/08/14 12:30 A US GDP 2Q14 prelim 3.90% 4.00%
28/08/14 14:00 A US Pending Homes 0.50% -1.10%
28/08/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 82
28/08/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 7-yr n/a n/a
28/08/14 23:50 A JP Ind Out p yy 0.10% 3.10%


calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.



John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of Global-View.com. He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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