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Secret Draghi and Yellen Accord to weaken EURUSD? Conference Board Sentiment Survey Key?

Secret Draghi and Yellen Accord to weaken EURUSD? Conference Board Sentiment Survey Key?
August 26, 2014 00:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
Early Tuesday in Europe markets are in a mixed  RISK-OFF posture. as London markets returned to the fray. Chatter about a possible agreement between  ECB President Draghi weaken the EURUSD have been passed around.  pivoting the1.3200 line.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have fallen after on the dovish  ECB. The 10-yr bund is 0.94% -1bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.48%  -6bp. I expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.38%, -2bp.. The psychological pivot is 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly lower. Bourses in Europe are mostly down. U.S. share futures are lower..

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- Durable Goods, Case Shiller, Conf Board Sentiment, 2-yr
  • There are report of a secret agreement between Yellen an Draghi to weaken the EURUSD. We can see how such an accord would be in the self-interest of both.
  • Tuesday sees U.S. Durable Goods, Case-Shiller Index, Richmond Fed, and the Conference Board Survey.
  • Later there will be a 2-yr auction, Fed Discount Rate vote and weekly API data. 
  • . Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
  • The key event Wednesday is the 5-yr auction.
  • Thursday features German employment data,  U.S. Weekly  jobless, revised GDP, Pending Homes Sales and a slew of Japanese monthend data.
  • On Friday German Retail Sales and flash EZ CPI are key. U.S. Personal Income, the Chicago PMI and final University of Michigan Sentiment are slated.
  • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):

12:30 US Durable Goods Orders  Industrial Demand
14:00 US CB Consumer Confidence Important sentiment survey
17:00 TRY 2-yr Auction
17:00 TRY 5-yr Auction
00:30 JP CPI BOJ Target
07:55 DE Unemployment Key ECB metric
12:30 US Initial Claims  Employment measure
12:30 US GDP 2Q14 preliminary  Broadest measure of economy
14:00 US Pending Homes Existing Homes Predictor
17:00 TRY 7-yr Auction
06:00 DE Retail Sales Consumer demand
09:00 EZ flash HICP  ECB Target
12:30 CA GDP  Broadest measure of economy
12:30 US PCE deflator Fed Target
13:55 US U Mich Survey final Important sentiment survey

Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
26/08/14 12:30 A US Dur Goods 2.10% 1.70%
26/08/14 12:30 A US D/G ex-trans 0.40% 1.90%
26/08/14 13:00 B US Case-Shil 20 yy 8.20% 9.30%
26/08/14 14:00 C US Richmond Fed n/a 7
26/08/14 14:00 A US CB Consumer Conf 88.8 90.9
26/08/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 2-yr n/a n/a
26/08/14 18:00 B FRB Discount Minutes n/a n/a
26/08/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
27/08/14 0:00 WEDNESDAY
27/08/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
27/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a -4.47
27/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a 0.59
27/08/14 14:30 A US EIA Distillate mn n/a -0.96
27/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 93.40%
27/08/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 5-yr n/a n/a
28/08/14 0:00 THURSDAY
28/08/14 0:30 A JP Core CPI 3.30% 3.30%
28/08/14 0:30 A JP CPI yy 3.40% 3.60%
28/08/14 0:30 A JP Unemploy Mar 3.70% 3.70%
28/08/14 0:50 A JP Retail Sales yy 0.10% -0.60%
28/08/14 7:55 A DE unem Kchg -5 -12
28/08/14 7:55 A DE unempl rate 6.70% 6.70%
28/08/14 9:00 C EZ Cons Conf -9 -8.4
28/08/14 10:00 B GB CBI Dist Trades 25 21
28/08/14 12:30 A CA Cur/Acct C$b n/a -12.4
28/08/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.5
28/08/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 300 298
28/08/14 12:30 A US GDP 2Q14 prelim 3.90% 4.00%
28/08/14 14:00 A US Pending Homes 0.50% -1.10%
28/08/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 82
28/08/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 7-yr n/a n/a
28/08/14 23:50 A JP Ind Out p yy 0.10% 3.10%
29/08/14 0:00 FRIDAY
29/08/14 6:00 A DE Ret Sales mo 0.10% 1.00%
29/08/14 6:00 A DE Ret Sales yr 1.50% 0.40%
29/08/14 7:00 A CH KOF Ind 97 98.1
29/08/14 9:00 A EZ FL HICP yy 0.30% 0.40%
29/08/14 9:00 A EZ FL HICP core yy 0.80% 0.80%
29/08/14 9:00 C EZ Unemploy May 11.50% 11.50%
29/08/14 12:30 A CA GDP mm 0.20% 0.40%
29/08/14 12:30 A US PCE defl y 1.50% 1.50%
29/08/14 12:30 A US Per Inc 0.30% 0.40%
29/08/14 13:45 A US Chicago PMI 56.2 52.6
29/08/14 13:55 A US U Mich final 80.2 79.2
29/08/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 26 Feb 2018
A 15:00 US- New Homes Sales
Tue 27 Feb 2018
A 08:55 DE- Jobless
B 13:30 US- Durable Goods
A 15:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
A 15:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
AA 15:00 US- Powell House Testimony
Wed 28 Feb 2018
A 10:00 EZ- flash HICP
AA 13:30 US- GDP
A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 1 Mar 2018
A All Day final Mfg PMIs
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 13:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
AA 15:00 US- Powell Senate Testimony
A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
Fri 2 Mar 2018
AA 15:00 US- final Univ of Mich

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,
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