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U.S. Data Beat Easily on Upside. Secret Draghi and Yellen Accord to Weaken EURUSD?

U.S. Data Beat Easily on Upside. Secret Draghi and Yellen Accord  to Weaken EURUSD?
August 27, 2014 00:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
Late Tuesday in Europe markets are in a mixed  RISK posture with equities up and bond yields lower.. Chatter about a possible agreement between  ECB President Draghi weaken the EURUSD have been passed around. EURUSD.is  pivoting the1.3200 line.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have fallen on dovish view on the ECB. The 10-yr bund is 0.95%  0bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K. 10-yr gilt  yield is 2.45%  -9bp. I expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.39%, +1bp.. The psychological pivot is 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly lower. Bourses in Europe are broadly higher. U.S. shares are up..

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


    HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- 5-yr Auction
  • The only key event Wednesday is the 5-yr auction. Major data follow later in the month.
  • There are reports of a secret agreement between Yellen an Draghi to weaken the EURUSD. We can see how such an accord would be in the self-interest of both.
  • July U.S. Durable Goods Orders surged higher following a spike in aircraft orders. They will not impact production for another decade. The Conference Board Survey.was much stronger than expected as well. 
  • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.  
  • Thursday features German employment data,  U.S. Weekly  jobless, revised GDP, Pending Homes Sales and a slew of Japanese monthend data.
  • On Friday German Retail Sales and flash EZ CPI are key. U.S. Personal Income, the Chicago PMI and final University of Michigan Sentiment are slated.
  • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):

WEDNESDAY
17:00 TRY 5-yr Auction
00:30 JP CPI BOJ Target
THURSDAY
07:55 DE Unemployment Key ECB metric
12:30 US Initial Claims  Employment measure
12:30 US GDP 2Q14 preliminary  Broadest measure of economy
14:00 US Pending Homes Existing Homes Predictor
17:00 TRY 7-yr Auction
FRIDAY
06:00 DE Retail Sales Consumer demand
09:00 EZ flash HICP  ECB Target
12:30 CA GDP  Broadest measure of economy
12:30 US PCE deflator Fed Target
13:55 US U Mich Survey final Important sentiment survey


FOREX CALENDAR
Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
26/08/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
27/08/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
27/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn 1.75 -4.47
27/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn -1.625 0.59
27/08/14 14:30 A US EIA Distillate mn -0.75 -0.96
27/08/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 93.40%
27/08/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 5-yr n/a n/a
28/08/14 0:00 THURSDAY
28/08/14 7:55 A DE unem Kchg -5 -12
28/08/14 7:55 A DE unempl rate 6.70% 6.70%
28/08/14 9:00 C EZ Cons Conf -9 -8.4
28/08/14 10:00 B GB CBI Dist Trades 25 21
28/08/14 12:30 A CA Cur/Acct C$b -12 -12.4
28/08/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims 2.513 2.5
28/08/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 300 298
28/08/14 12:30 A US GDP 2Q14 prelim 3.90% 4.00%
28/08/14 14:00 A US Pending Homes 0.50% -1.10%
28/08/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 82
28/08/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 7-yr n/a n/a
28/08/14 23:50 A JP Ind Out p yy 0.10% 3.10%
29/08/14 0:00 FRIDAY
29/08/14 0:30 A JP Core CPI 3.30% 3.30%
29/08/14 0:30 A JP CPI yy 3.40% 3.60%
29/08/14 0:30 A JP Unemploy Mar 3.70% 3.70%
29/08/14 0:50 A JP Retail Sales yy 0.10% -0.60%
29/08/14 6:00 A DE Ret Sales mo 0.10% 1.00%
29/08/14 6:00 A DE Ret Sales yr 1.50% 0.40%
29/08/14 7:00 A CH KOF Ind 97 98.1
29/08/14 9:00 A EZ FL HICP yy 0.30% 0.40%
29/08/14 9:00 A EZ FL HICP core yy 0.80% 0.80%
29/08/14 9:00 C EZ Unemploy May 11.50% 11.50%
29/08/14 12:30 A CA GDP mm 0.20% 0.40%
29/08/14 12:30 A US PCE defl y 1.50% 1.50%
29/08/14 12:30 A US Per Inc 0.30% 0.40%
29/08/14 13:45 A US Chicago PMI 56.2 52.6
29/08/14 13:55 A US U Mich final 80.2 79.2
29/08/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a


calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.



John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of Global-View.com. He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved

 

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Mon 23 Apr 2018
A All Day- Flash PMIs
AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 Apr 2018
AA 01:30 AU- CPI
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- CB Confidence
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AA 03:00 JP- Bank of Japan
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A 08:30 GB- GDP
A 14:00 US- University of Michigan


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