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Focus on Risk of ECB Ease Next Thursday. Bund Yields Fall. Active Data Calendar on Thursday
|Focus on Risk of ECB Ease Next Thursday. Bund Yields Fall. Active Data Calendar on Thursday|
August 28, 2014 00:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map
Current Market Conditions:
Europe markets are ending in a RISK-OFF posture with bond yields falling heading into the ECB meeting in a week's.time. Before that flash August CPI data on Friday could be decisive. I find the continued ECB foot-dragging to be an ongoing disappointment. EURUSD.is holding below the1.3200 line.
- Thursday features German employment data, U.S. Weekly jobless, revised GDP, and Pending Homes Sales.
- A key focus of trade Wednesday was the upcoming ECB decision due in just over one week's time. Coming into the day, ECB President Draghi was expected to announce or at least hint at additional policy ease. Reuters carried a story over the session citing ECB sources as saying that no new ECB action is likely at this meeting. But then they indicated that the flash August EZ CPI report on Friday could be decisive.
- Yesterday, we heard (unconfirmed) of reports of a secret agreement between Yellen an Draghi to weaken the EURUSD. To me this is a logical possibility.
- Friday sees a slew of Japanese monthend data, German Retail Sales and the flash EZ CPI. The U.S. releases Personal Income, the Chicago PMI and final University of Michigan Sentiment.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
17:00 TRY 5-yr Auction
07:55 DE Unemployment Key ECB metric
12:30 US Initial Claims Employment measure
12:30 US GDP 2Q14 preliminary Broadest measure of economy
14:00 US Pending Homes Existing Homes Predictor
17:00 TRY 7-yr Auction
00:30 JP CPI BOJ Target
06:00 DE Retail Sales Consumer demand
09:00 EZ flash HICP ECB Target
12:30 CA GDP Broadest measure of economy
12:30 US PCE deflator Fed Target
13:55 US U Mich Survey final Important sentiment survey
||CBI Dist Trades
||GDP 2Q14 prelim
||Nat Gas bcf
||Ind Out p yy
||Retail Sales yy
||Ret Sales mo
||Ret Sales yr
||FL HICP yy
||FL HICP core yy
||PCE defl y
||U Mich final
Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
John M. Bland is a founding partner of Global-View.com. He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
|Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved|
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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