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German August Unemployment data Weaker than Expected. Focus on EZ Flash HICP Friday
|German August Unemployment data Weaker than Expected. Focus on EZ Flash HICP Friday|
August 29, 2014 00:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map
Current Market Conditions:
European markets late have been knocked around by first what appeared to be short-covering before a slew of headlines from Ukraine sent the EURUSD lower. German employment data early fell short but are unlikely to impact Thursday's ECB decision
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower.on a flight-to-quality and a dovish ECB view. The 10-yr bund is 0.885% -2.5bp. Peripheral bond yields are mixed.
- The U.K. 10-yr gilt yield is 2.370% 0.0bp. I expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
- U.S.10-yr yield is 2.334%, -2.5bp.. The psychological pivot is 2.40%.
- Far East equities closed lower. Bourses in Europe are ending down. U.S. shares are down.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
HIGH IMPACT NEWS:JA- CPI, Retail Sales, DE- Retail Sales, EZ- flash HICP US- Personal Income & PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan Survey
- Friday sees a slew of Japanese monthend data, German Retail Sales and the flash EZ CPI.
- The U.S. releases Personal Income, the Chicago PMI and final University of Michigan Sentiment. A key focus is the upcoming ECB decision next Thursday..There was a report that that no new ECB action is likely. The flash EZ CPI report may be decisive. Some U.S. markets close early on Friday
- August German employment data were another disappointment. Both the headline figure and revisions were weak. EURUSD saw buying on dip trading ahead of the weekend.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
00:30 JP CPI BOJ Target
06:00 DE Retail Sales Consumer demand
09:00 EZ flash HICP ECB Target
12:30 CA GDP Broadest measure of economy
12:30 US PCE deflator Fed Target
13:55 US U Mich Survey final Important sentiment survey
17:00 US Some. markets close early for Labor Day
||Ind Out p yy
||Retail Sales yy
||Ret Sales mo
||Ret Sales yr
||FL HICP yy
||FL HICP core yy
||PCE defl y
||U Mich final
Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
John M. Bland is a founding partner of Global-View.com. He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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