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PMI Data Disappoint. ECB Policy Decision and U.S. Jobs This Week

PMI Data Disappoint. ECB Policy Decision and U.S. Jobs This Week
  September 2, 2014 00:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
Holidays in Canada and the U.S., kept trading at a low level after the near universal release of Mfg PMI data. Generally the data were disappointing. Markets are in a mixed RISK posture. This week features an ECB meeting and U.S. jobs data.The EURUSD is opening the week steady.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mixed. The 10-yr bund is 0.884%  -0.3bp. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K. 10-yr gilt  yield is 2.380%  +2.0bp. I see a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.343%, +0.0bp.. The psychological pivot is 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are ending mixed. U.S. share markets are closed.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- Reserve Bank Meeting, US- Mfg PMI's, CA- Mfg PMI
  • Tuesday sees a Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision and Manufacturing PMI data from the U.S. and Canada.
  • On Wednesday Service PMI data are due along with a Bank of Canada policy decision and the Fed's Beige Book.
  • On Thursday policy decisions are due from the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. In the U.S., ADP jobs data and Service PMI surveys are slated as well.
  • On Friday, U.S. and Canadian August payroll data are due.
  • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
03:30  AU Australia Reserve Bank No rate change seen
13:30  CA RBC-Markit PMI PMI closely-watched indicator
13:45  US MKT MFG PMI final PMI closely-watched indicator
14:00  US ISM MFG PMI PMI closely-watched indicator
01:30  AU GDP Broadest growth measure
07:55  DE SVC PMI final PMI closely-watched indicator
07:58  EZ SVC PMI final PMI closely-watched indicator
08:28  GB SVC PMI PMI closely-watched indicator
14:00 CA BOC Rates No rate change seen
14:00  FRB Beige Book Same data Fed gets
14:00  US Factory Orders Measure of manufacturing
01:30  AU Retail Sales Key economic metric
01:30  AU Trade A$bln  Important for growth
04:30  JP Bank of Japan No rate change seen
11:00  GB Bank of England No rate change seen
11:45  EZ Europe Cntl Bank No rate chg, other ease possible
12:15  US ADP Jobs Predictor of NFP
12:30  CA Trade Important for growth
12:30  US Initial Claims Key jobs metric
12:30  US Trade  Broadest growth measure
12:30  US Productivity 2Q14p Important for growth
13:45  US Markit SVC PMI final PMI closely-watched indicator
14:00  US ISM SVC PMI PMI closely-watched indicator
09:00  EZ GDP Broadest growth measure
12:30  CA Payrolls Key economic metric
12:30  US Payrolls Broadest growth measure

Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
02/09/14 3:30 A AU Australia Reserve Bank 2.50% 2.50%
02/09/14 9:00 C EZ PPI mm -0.10% 0.10%
02/09/14 9:00 C EZ PPI yy -1.10% -0.80%
02/09/14 13:30 A CA RBC-Markit PMI n/a 54.1
02/09/14 13:45 A US MKT MFG PMI final 58 58
02/09/14 14:00 A US ISM MFG PMI 57 57.1
02/09/14 14:00 A US Construction Mar 0.80% -1.80%
03/09/14 0:00 WEDNESDAY
03/09/14 1:30 A AU GDP qq 0.40% 1.10%
03/09/14 1:30 A AU 1Q14 GDP yy 3.00% 3.50%
03/09/14 7:50 B FR SVC PMI final 51.1 51.1
03/09/14 7:55 A DE SVC PMI final 56.4 56.4
03/09/14 7:58 A EZ SVC PMI final 53.5 53.5
03/09/14 8:28 A GB SVC PMI 58.5 59.1
03/09/14 9:00 B EZ Retail Sls mm -0.30% 0.40%
03/09/14 9:00 B EZ Retail Sls yy 0.90% 2.40%
03/09/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
03/09/14 14:00 A CA BOC Rates 1.00% 1.00%
03/09/14 14:00 A FRB Beige Book n/a n/a
03/09/14 14:00 A US Factory Orders 10.80% 1.10%
03/09/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
04/09/14 0:00 THURSDAY
04/09/14 1:30 A AU Retail Sales n/a 0.20%
04/09/14 1:30 A AU Trade A$bln n/a -1.683
04/09/14 4:30 A JP Bank of Japan 0.10% 0.10%
04/09/14 7:00 B DE Factory Ord mm n/a n/a
04/09/14 7:00 B DE Factory Ord yy 1.10% -2.40%
04/09/14 11:00 A GB Bank of England 0.50% 0.50%
04/09/14 11:00 A GB QE GBP bn 375 375
04/09/14 11:45 A EZ Europe Cntl Bank 0.15% 0.15%
04/09/14 12:15 A US ADP Jobs 215 218
04/09/14 12:30 A CA Trade C$bn n/a 1.86
04/09/14 12:30 A EZ ECB Webcast n/a n/a
04/09/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 298 298
04/09/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.527
04/09/14 12:30 A US Trade USDb -42.6 -41.5
04/09/14 12:30 A US Productivity 2Q14p 2.50% 2.50%
04/09/14 13:45 A US Markit SVC PMI final 58.5 58.5
04/09/14 14:00 A US ISM SVC PMI 57.2 58.7
04/09/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 75
04/09/14 15:00 C US EIA Crude mn n/a -2.07
04/09/14 15:00 C US EIA Gasoline mn n/a -0.96
04/09/14 15:00 C US EIA Distillate mn n/a 1.25
04/09/14 15:00 C US EIA Cap Util n/a 93.50%

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
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