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RISK-ON Trade: No Change to RBA Policy. U.S. and Canada PMI Data Due

RISK-ON Trade: No Change to RBA Policy. U.S. and Canada PMI Data Due
  September 2, 2014 09:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
Trading is retuning to normal as the summer holidays in the Northern Hemisphere unofficially draw to a close. Markets in general are initially moving into a RISK-ON posture..The EURUSD is now in range of the 1.3100 level.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are higher. The 10-yr bund is 0.917%  +3.3bp. Peripheral bond yields are mostly higher.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.42%  +4.0bp. I see a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.368%, +2.5bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are up. U.S. share futures are higher.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia kept policy steady Tuesday as expected and signaled that rates would not be changed again soon. they again expressed concerns about the high value of the exchange rate.
  • Today features Manufacturing PMI data from the U.S. and Canada.
  • On Wednesday Service PMI data are due along with a Bank of Canada policy decision and the Fed's Beige Book.
  • On Thursday policy decisions are due from the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. In the U.S., ADP jobs data and Service PMI surveys are slated as well.
  • On Friday, U.S. and Canadian August payroll data are due.
  • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
03:30  AU Australia Reserve Bank No rate change seen
13:30  CA RBC-Markit PMI PMI closely-watched indicator
13:45  US MKT MFG PMI final PMI closely-watched indicator
14:00  US ISM MFG PMI PMI closely-watched indicator
01:30  AU GDP Broadest growth measure
07:55  DE SVC PMI final PMI closely-watched indicator
07:58  EZ SVC PMI final PMI closely-watched indicator
08:28  GB SVC PMI PMI closely-watched indicator
14:00 CA BOC Rates No rate change seen
14:00  FRB Beige Book Same data Fed gets
14:00  US Factory Orders Measure of manufacturing
01:30  AU Retail Sales Key economic metric
01:30  AU Trade A$bln  Important for growth
04:30  JP Bank of Japan No rate change seen
11:00  GB Bank of England No rate change seen
11:45  EZ Europe Cntl Bank No rate chg, other ease possible
12:15  US ADP Jobs Predictor of NFP
12:30  CA Trade Important for growth
12:30  US Initial Claims Key jobs metric
12:30  US Trade  Broadest growth measure
12:30  US Productivity 2Q14p Important for growth
13:45  US Markit SVC PMI final PMI closely-watched indicator
14:00  US ISM SVC PMI PMI closely-watched indicator
09:00  EZ GDP Broadest growth measure
12:30  CA Payrolls Key economic metric
12:30  US Payrolls Broadest growth measure

Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
02/09/14 13:30 A CA RBC-Markit PMI n/a 54.1
02/09/14 13:45 A US MKT MFG PMI final 58 58
02/09/14 14:00 A US ISM MFG PMI 57 57.1
02/09/14 14:00 A US Construction Mar 0.80% -1.80%
03/09/14 0:00 WEDNESDAY
03/09/14 1:30 A AU GDP qq 0.40% 1.10%
03/09/14 1:30 A AU 1Q14 GDP yy 3.00% 3.50%
03/09/14 7:50 B FR SVC PMI final 51.1 51.1
03/09/14 7:55 A DE SVC PMI final 56.4 56.4
03/09/14 7:58 A EZ SVC PMI final 53.5 53.5
03/09/14 8:28 A GB SVC PMI 58.5 59.1
03/09/14 9:00 B EZ Retail Sls mm -0.30% 0.40%
03/09/14 9:00 B EZ Retail Sls yy 0.90% 2.40%
03/09/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
03/09/14 14:00 A CA BOC Rates 1.00% 1.00%
03/09/14 14:00 A FRB Beige Book n/a n/a
03/09/14 14:00 A US Factory Orders 10.80% 1.10%
03/09/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
04/09/14 0:00 THURSDAY
04/09/14 1:30 A AU Retail Sales n/a 0.20%
04/09/14 1:30 A AU Trade A$bln n/a -1.683
04/09/14 4:30 A JP Bank of Japan 0.10% 0.10%
04/09/14 7:00 B DE Factory Ord mm n/a n/a
04/09/14 7:00 B DE Factory Ord yy 1.10% -2.40%
04/09/14 11:00 A GB Bank of England 0.50% 0.50%
04/09/14 11:00 A GB QE GBP bn 375 375
04/09/14 11:45 A EZ Europe Cntl Bank 0.15% 0.15%
04/09/14 12:15 A US ADP Jobs 215 218
04/09/14 12:30 A CA Trade C$bn n/a 1.86
04/09/14 12:30 A EZ ECB Webcast n/a n/a
04/09/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 298 298
04/09/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.527
04/09/14 12:30 A US Trade USDb -42.6 -41.5
04/09/14 12:30 A US Productivity 2Q14p 2.50% 2.50%
04/09/14 13:45 A US Markit SVC PMI final 58.5 58.5
04/09/14 14:00 A US ISM SVC PMI 57.2 58.7
04/09/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 75
04/09/14 15:00 C US EIA Crude mn n/a -2.07
04/09/14 15:00 C US EIA Gasoline mn n/a -0.96
04/09/14 15:00 C US EIA Distillate mn n/a 1.25
04/09/14 15:00 C US EIA Cap Util n/a 93.50%
05/09/14 0:00 FRIDAY
05/09/14 7:00 B DE Ind Output yy 0.60% -0.50%
05/09/14 9:00 A EZ 2Q14 GDP qq 0.00% 0.00%
05/09/14 9:00 A EZ GDP yy 0.70% 0.70%
05/09/14 12:30 A CA Jobless % 7.00% 7.00%
05/09/14 12:30 A CA Payrolls 10 41.7
05/09/14 12:30 A US Jobless % 6.10% 6.10%
05/09/14 12:30 A US Payrolls 220 209
05/09/14 12:30 A US Priv Jobs 205 198
05/09/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 26 Feb 2018
A 15:00 US- New Homes Sales
Tue 27 Feb 2018
A 08:55 DE- Jobless
B 13:30 US- Durable Goods
A 15:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
A 15:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
AA 15:00 US- Powell House Testimony
Wed 28 Feb 2018
A 10:00 EZ- flash HICP
AA 13:30 US- GDP
A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 1 Mar 2018
A All Day final Mfg PMIs
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 13:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
AA 15:00 US- Powell Senate Testimony
A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
Fri 2 Mar 2018
AA 15:00 US- final Univ of Mich

John M. Bland, MBA
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