User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday September 3, 2014 - 03:51:05 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Morning Briefing : 03-Sep-2014 -0350 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
The US equity markets ignored the strong Manufacturing data and went nowhere. Ignoring good data is never a good sign. On the other hand, Shanghai keeps the Asian sentiment positive, a market that has ignored a lot of bad news in the last few months and is rising fast now.

Dow (17067.56, -0.18%) is stalling for the third consecutive session in the narrow range of 17000-150 after testing the life high last week. The trend remains firmly up but to extend the rise, the bulls must break above 17300-400 soon. Dax (9507.02, +0.30%) is in a short term corrective mode for the last week and stuck in 9400-600. Only a break above 9800 would reverse the downtrend and signal a rally towards 10600-700.

Nikkei (15786.61, +0.75%) has reached 15800 levels as expected and a break above 15950 will bring 16150-300, the 2013 high, into consideration. The Shanghai (2282.20, +0.71%) has broken above 2260-70 firmly to signal the next phase of the rise. Now the targets of 2330 and 2450 open up, expected to be achieved soon.

Nifty (8083.05, +0.69%) has achieved our immediate target of 8075-90 and on a closing above 8100, may reach 8190-8300 as mentioned earlier. The bullish momentum remains intact above 8000.

COMMODITIES
Globally all commodities have fallen sharply. May remain stable or see some short term upward correction while the longer term is firmly bearish.

Gold (1267.49) has dropped sharply to test crucial support at 1262.90 which may hold prices for a few sessions. However a break below 1262 if seen could be very dangerous for the metal taking it to lower levels of 1250-1240. Gold-WTI ratio (13.56) has risen from support near 13.5 s expected and may now indicate a little upward correction for Gold. May expect a possibility of a rebound from 13 to target 14 again.

Silver (19.21) has also fallen to lower levels. A slight upward correction towards 19.5 could be seen before again falling towards 19-18.5 levels. Long term remains bearish. Gold-Silver ratio (65.95) remained stable as both the metals fell sharply maintaining the ratio to remain ranged. Sideways consolidation within 66.73-65.768 could be seen for a few sessions before falling towards 65.06-64.4.

Nymex WTI (93.31) has fallen sharply from the crucial 95.84 levels as expected. The Crude is trying hard to rise but is strongly under the influence of the bears. It has fallen to test our target support of 92.5 which may hold prices for a few sessions now. In the longer run we may see more downfalls.

Brent (100.71) came off sharply after testing the 21-day MA near 103.3. There may be some correction now towards 102 but in the longer term we may see levels of 99.66-98.74. Moves are bearish.

Copper (3.1595) remains stable for now. The levels of 3.10-3.23 may hold in the near term.

FOREX
The expected big moves materialized in Yen & Pound as Dollar (82.99) literally crushed these currencies. But Euro is silent before the ECB meet and that can be the biggest influence of Rupee for the day.

Euro (1.3133) keeps hitting new lows while waiting for the ECB meet, though the bearish momentum is low for the moment. We will see if any short covering emerges from the long term support levels of 1.3050-1.30 after the meet.

Dollar-Yen (105.19) almost tested the 6-year high of 105.44 and the bullish momentum is increasing. A firm closing above 105.40-50 could signal a rally to the long term resistance at 108-109. Euro-Yen (138.16) managed to break above 138 after a month and a half. Now just a small move above 138.50-65 is required to fully negate any potential weakness and activate the targets of 140-141.

Pound (1.6467) crashed to our initial target of 1.6460 just as expected and no sign of let off is seen till now. A break below 1.6460 will keep it on course to our next target of 1.6360.

Aussie (0.9276) is tantalizingly close to 0.9250 once again but the sideways movement may continue for a while more in the range of 0.92-0.9375.

Dollar-Rupee (60.68) tested the upper end of the old range of 60.35-70 and while a break above 60.70 opens up targets of 60.90-61.20, the breakout may not be that easy to come. We may see another rangebound day in the same 60.35-70 ahead of the ECB meet.

INTEREST RATES
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting yesterday kept the interest rates stable at 2.5%.

The German 2Yr (-0.0335%) is a little higher today which should impact the Euro (1.3130) positively. The German-US 2Yr (-0.56%) is testing support near -0.55% and may see a bounce towards -0.50 to -0.45% in the near term. On the other hand the German-US 10 Yr yield has been falling sharply and my continue to fall in the near term.

The US 2Yr (0.53%) is at crucial resistance levels currently. If this holds we may see the yield fall towards 0.40% In the near term. The 5yr (1.69%) is also nearing resistance near 1.72% which if holds may come down to 1.65%. The US 10-5 yr differential (0.74%) may rise a little more towards 0.76% while in a longer term downtrend.

In India, the 10Yr GOI (8.5191%) has dipped further and the Indo-US 10Yr Spread (6.09%) has also come off.

DATA TODAY



1:30 GMT or 7:00 IST AU GDP
...Expected 0.40 % ...Previous 1.10 % ...Actual 0.5 %


9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU Retail Sales
...Expected -0.4 % ...Previous 0.4 %

14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST BOC Meeting
...Expected 1.00 % ...Previous 1.00 %

DATA YESTERDAY
RBA Meeting
...Expected 2.50 % ...Previous 2.50 % ...Actual 2.50 %

CH GDP
...Expected 0.50 % ...Previous 0.46 % ...Actual -0.04 %

US Manufacturing ISM
...Expected 57.00 ...Previous 57.10 ...Actual 59.0

 

 

Follow:

Share on facebookFacebookShare on twitterTwitterShare on linkedinLinkedIn

Our Track Record

Click here to enlarge


Our Jul'14 Longterm forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please mail us.

In order to read our previous forecasts please Click Here.


Track the ongoing actual releases in our online Economic Calendar.

 

 

 

 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 21 November 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105