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Thursday September 4, 2014 - 03:45:59 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 04-Sep-2014 -0345 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
All Equity indices remain in an uptrend, although there is some doubt about strength in the Dow and Dax.

Dow (17078.28, +10.72) uptrend momentum weakening. Although there is still room on the upside towards 17300, it is approaching overbought levels. Just a note of caution.

The Dax (9626.49, +1.26%, +119.47) rose strongly yesterday but did not break above important Resistance at 9700. Still, we have to admit that the rise, even if corrective, since 8900 has been longer and stronger than we'd anticipated. A test of 9700 and even 9800 is possible. It may also well be that the market turns down from 9800. Have to watch fro that.

The Shanghai (2287, -0.9) is taking a well earned breather after the stupendous rise over the last four days. Look for 2350, as mentioned earlier, and maybe even 2400-2450. No one will be selling this market for some time. The Nikkei (15728.05, -0.3) is also pausing a bit in its overall upmove that can target 16000, maybe even 16150-300.

The Nifty (8114.60) rose well yesterday and is expected to test important near-term channel Resistance at 8200 today. A break above that is needed for further rise towards 8300.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1272.45) has bounced slightly from support at 1262.9 in line with our expectation of a short term correction and may move up a bit to 1280.5 before resuming the fall towards 1260-1240. Near term remains bearish in an overall downtrend. Gold-WTI ratio () has bounced well and is rising again towards resistance near 14 as expected. Need to see if 14 holds or takes it higher to the next resistance near 15.

Silver (19.227) is held below 19.26 for now and may continue to range sideways for a few sessions. If it is unable to break above 19.26, chances of a fall towards 19-18.5 is more likely. Else we may see a rise towards 19.5. Long term remains bearish. Gold-Silver ratio (66.135) remains stable for now.

Brent (102.24) and Nymex WTI (95.17) rose sharply to regain the previous sessionís losses just as expected. Both have risen from supports on the weekly charts and may see some short term upward correction in the coming sessions. But note that while below 105-104 and 100-98 respectively bearishness prevails.

Copper (3.142) is heading downward towards support near 3.10 and if that holds may see a short bounce to 3.20. Overall 3.10-3.23 range may hold for now.

FOREX
The Euro (1.3145) saw some mild short-covering yesterday, rising to 1.3160, but is stalling again in its overall downtrend. Watch important Resistance at 1.3165-70 today. Should it break, we may see a further rise towards 1.3220. Else, if it holds, a fresh decline towards our 1.3050-3000 target will unfold.

Dollar-Yen (104.88) saw some profit-taking yesterday from 105.31 but is in a good uptrend while above 104.65-40. Expect a day or two of consolidation between 104.65-105.25 before the longer term uptrend resumes. Keep an eye on whether or not Nikkei is able to break above 16150-300 or not. The Euro-Yen Cross (137.87) too needs to overcome Resistance at 138.50-65 to achieve longer term targets of 140. But, that may take time as the market may consolidate between 137.60-138.20 in the very near term (day or two).

The Pound (1.6458) remains weak and on course towards our target of 1.6360. The Aussie (0.9348) has risen back up within the 0.9200-9375 range mentioned yesterday. A Day Close abvoe 0.9350 is needed, however, for further gains. Will watch for that.

Dollar-Rupee (60.4850) remained in our 60.35-70 range yesterday as well. We have to see whether the easing of money market rates in India (see Interest Rates below) will attract more FII funds.

INTEREST RATES
Important developments in the Indian money markets over the last few days. The Call Rate (7.3%) has been coming down for some days now and is moving towards the Reverse Repo rate of 7.0%, implying ample liquidity in the market. This is also reflected in the 14-day MIBOR, which has broken below an important support. See http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/mibor.shtml#mibor

There's been a sharp drop in the 10Yr Indo-US Spread (6.09%) from 6.22% on 29th Aug. The 10Yr Yield (8.5229%) itself is also turning down and a break below 8.50%, if seen, could attract more FII buying.

Contrary to expectation, the German-US 2Yr Spread (-0.539%) had dipped to -0.58% yesterday, but is trading near -0.55% now. The market expects Draghi to announce QE today (given the noises made at Jackson Hole). But what if he procastinates? We could see European yields move up. That is the contrarion call we have been taking for some time now. Let us see how it goes on Judgement Day today.

DATA TODAY



0:30 GMT or 6:00 IST Australia Trade Balance
...Expected -1.77 A$ Bln ...Previous -1.56 A$ Bln ...Actual -1.36 A$Bln

Tentative BOJ Meeting
...Previous <0.10 %

11:00 GMT or 16:30 IST BOE Mtg
...Expected 0.50 % ...Previous 0.50 %

11:45 GMT or 17:15 IST ECB Meeting
...Expected 0.15 % ...Previous 0.15 %

12:15 GMT or 17:45 IST US ADP Emp
...Expected 216 K ...Previous 218 K


DATA YESTERDAY


AU GDP
...Expected 0.40 % ...Previous 1.10 % ...Actual 0.5 %


EU Retail Sales
...Expected -0.4 % ...Previous 0.3 % ...Actual -0.4 %

BOC Meeting
...Expected 1.00 % ...Previous 1.00 % ...Actual 1.00 %

 

 

 

 

 

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