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Thursday September 4, 2014 - 09:09:40 GMT -

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Risk-Off Trading Heading into the ECB Decision. BOE Awaited Also. U.S. ADP Data Slated

Risk-Off Trading Heading into the ECB Decision. BOE Awaited Also. U.S. ADP Data Slated
  September 4, 2014 09:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
Early in Europe markets are in a mild RISK-OFF posture heading in to the ECB decision in a few hours. Traders will be concerned if the central bank continues to drag its feet  when some action clearly is called for. The EURUSD is steady from late Wednesday.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower. The 10-yr bund is 0.952%  +0.1bp. Peripheral bond yields are steady.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.45%  -1.0bp. I see a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.406%, -0.8bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly lower. Bourses in Europe are down. U.S. share futures are down.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS:  GB- BOE, EZ- ECB, US- ADP Jobs, Weekly Jobs, Trade, Productivity, Markit-ISM Service PMIs, CA- Trade
    • Policy decisions are due from  the Bank of England and the European Central Bank today. The ECB will have to contend with a string of poor data releases. Perceived inaction by the ECB could be a disappointment
    •  In the U.S., ADP jobs data and Service PMI surveys are slated as well. ADP private Jobs data tend to be an erratic predictor of NFP data due on Friday. 
    • The BOJ kept policy steady, as expected today, although some concerns were expressed about the lasting impact of the sales tax increase.
    • On Friday, U.S. and Canadian August payroll data are due.
    • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
    Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):

    01:30  AU Retail Sales Key consumer metric
    01:30  AU Trade A$bln  Important for growth
    04:30  JP Bank of Japan leaning toward QE
    11:00  GB Bank of England No rate change seen
    11:45  EZ Europe Cntl Bank No rate chg, other ease possible
    12:15  US ADP Jobs Uneven predictor of NFP
    12:30  CA Trade Important for growth
    12:30  US Initial Claims Key jobs metric
    12:30  US Trade  Broadest growth measure
    12:30  US Productivity 2Q14p Important for growth
    13:45  US Markit SVC PMI final PMI closely-watched indicator
    14:00  US ISM SVC PMI PMI closely-watched indicator
    09:00  EZ GDP Broadest growth measure
    12:30  CA Payrolls Key employment metric
    12:30  US Payrolls Key employment metric
    Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
    04/09/14 11:00 A GB Bank of England 0.50% 0.50%
    04/09/14 11:00 A GB QE GBP bn 375 375
    04/09/14 11:45 A EZ Europe Cntl Bank 0.15% 0.15%
    04/09/14 12:15 A US ADP Jobs 215 218
    04/09/14 12:30 A CA Trade C$bn 0.9 1.86
    04/09/14 12:30 A EZ ECB Webcast n/a n/a
    04/09/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 298 298
    04/09/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.527
    04/09/14 12:30 A US Trade USDb -42.6 -41.5
    04/09/14 12:30 A US Productivity 2Q14p 2.50% 2.50%
    04/09/14 13:45 A US Markit SVC PMI final 58.5 58.5
    04/09/14 14:00 A US ISM SVC PMI 57.2 58.7
    04/09/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 75
    04/09/14 15:00 C US EIA Crude mn n/a -2.07
    04/09/14 15:00 C US EIA Gasoline mn n/a -0.96
    04/09/14 15:00 C US EIA Distillate mn n/a 1.25
    04/09/14 15:00 C US EIA Cap Util n/a 93.50%
    05/09/14 0:00 FRIDAY
    05/09/14 7:00 B DE Ind Output yy 0.60% -0.50%
    05/09/14 9:00 A EZ 2Q14 GDP qq 0.00% 0.00%
    05/09/14 9:00 A EZ GDP yy 0.70% 0.70%
    05/09/14 12:30 A CA Jobless % 7.00% 7.00%
    05/09/14 12:30 A CA Payrolls 10 41.7
    05/09/14 12:30 A US Jobless % 6.10% 6.10%
    05/09/14 12:30 A US Payrolls 220 209
    05/09/14 12:30 A US Priv Jobs 205 198
    05/09/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

    See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

    John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
    Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved


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