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Friday September 5, 2014 - 15:03:07 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: August Jobs Report Disappoints

 
Fri, 05 Sep 2014 10:52 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IE) Ireland July Industrial Production M/M: +11.3% v -19.8% prior; Y/Y: 17.5 v 1.6% prior
- (EU) ECB: 12 banks to repay total 9.1B in 3-Year LTRO Funds vs. 2.5Be
- (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: +0.1% v -0.1%e
- (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Aug 15th: $318.6B v $318.6B prior
- (PL) Poland Aug Official Reserves: $102.0B v $103.5B prior
- (BR) Brazil Aug IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 6.5% v 6.5%e
- (US) Aug Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +142K v +230Ke; Change in Private Payrolls: +134K v +215Ke; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: 0K v +15Ke
- (US) Aug Unemployment Rate: 6.1% v 6.1%e; Underemployment Rate: 12.0% v 12.2% prior; Change in Household Employment: +16K v +238Ke; Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.8% v 62.9% prior
- (US) Aug Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.0%e; Average Weekly Hours: 34.5 v 34.5e
- (CA) Canada Aug Net Change in Employment: -11.0K v +10.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 7.0% v 7.0%e
- (CA) Canada Q2 Labor Productivity Q/Q: 1.8% v 1.6%e
- (CL) Chile July Economic Activity Index M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.5%e
- (MX) Mexico Aug Consumer Confidence Index: 89.7 v 91.0e
- (MX) Mexico Leading Indicators M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prior
- (CL) Chile July Real Wage M/M: 1.0% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.4% v 1.8% prior
- (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) leaves Overnight Rate unchanged at 3.00%
- (CA) Canada Aug Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally Adj): 50.9 v 55.3e

- The August jobs report was a disappointing miss, however analysts and participants seem to agree that it will hardly derail the sense of acceleration in the US economy. Global equities have been pretty soft since the Asia session, and as of writing the DJIA is down 0.27%, the S&P500 is down 0.25% and the Nasdaq is off 0.36%.

- Today's nonfarm payrolls data - the lowest figure in 2014 so far - breaks a six-month stretch of 200K+ monthly gains, the longest run seen since the late 1990s. Commentators note that the August data has the greatest chance of being revised higher. Many analysts suggest the final estimate will rise to the upper half of the 150-200K range. In addition, over the last 12 years or so, every NFP print over +300K has been followed by one near or under +100K, suggesting that the July/August data are following a well-established pattern.

- Diplomacy has once again taken the upper hand in the Ukraine conflict. Representatives of Kiev and the pro-Russia rebels have met in Minsk this morning and agreed to a temporary cease-fire, to take effect at 11:00ET. Fighting was continuing in certain areas ahead of the deadline, while NATO and Russian officials traded barbs over their engagement in the conflict.

- According to unconfirmed press reports, Alibaba plans to kick off its IPO roadshow in New York City starting on Monday, Sept 8th. The IPO pricing range could be disclosed as early as today. Alibaba is then expected to price the IPO on Sept 18th and begin trading its shares on the NYSE on Sept 19th.

- Shares of Tesla are down 4% or so this morning after confirming plans to build its first gigafactory in Northern Nevada. Comments during yesterday's event are cited for the declines: CEO Must had stated to the press that he thought Tesla's stock price was "kind of high right now."

- Retail names are ticking lower on various stories this morning. The Gap's August comps were worst than expected, down 2%, while its Gap brand comps were down 6% worldwide. Michael Kors is off 5% or so after pricing shares for selling shareholders at a discount to the firm's recent trading range. Former cult stock Zumiez is down 6% after offering weak guidance with earnings.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:00 (UR) Proposed ease fire takes effect between Ukraine and Separatists reble
- 15:45 (US) Fed;s Rosengren in Boston
- 20:00 (CO) Colombia Aug CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.9%e v 2.9% prior
- 20:00 (CO) Colombia Aug CPI Core M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.8%e
- (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists



 

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