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Monday September 8, 2014 - 03:56:22 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 08-Sep-2014 -0356 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
The weaker than expected NFP number has been interpreted as another reason for the Fed not to hike rates soon. That has kept the markets in the green in a muted manner.

Dow (17137.36, +0.40%) tested both the ends of the two week old range 17000-150 and now may break out of the range any day this week to test the resistance area in 17350-450.

Dax (9747.02, +0.23%) is close to the final resistance of 9800 and may take a pause here before trying to rally again. As our previous bearish bias is on the verge of reversal, if 9800 fails to push the index down, targets of 10000 and even 10600 will have to be considered.

The Shanghai (2326.43, +0.85%) bears are getting annihilated as the index rises with a phenomenal pace. Our target of 2350 is very close now and larger targets of 2400-2450 looks more plausible. The Nikkei (15699.19, +0.19%) is stuck in a 200 points range in 15650-850 for the last 4 sessions but needs to break above 15950 soon to continue the upmove that can target 16000, maybe even 16150-300.

The Nifty (8086.85, -0.11%) continued correction for the third session with the bullish momentum intact as it remained above the short term support area of 8050-40. The Bullish Flag seen in the hourly charts will signal a rally towards 8190-8200 on a break above 8110-25.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1268.973) is trading above the crucial 1262-1260 levels and may show some ranged moves in the 1260-1280 region in the coming sessions.

Silver (19.227) is stable tarding below 19.26 for now and may continue to range sideways for a few sessions. 19-18.5 is more likely while below 19.26.

Brent (100.75) is trading low and may see 99.6 while below 101. Bears remain strongly dominant. Near term is bearish for now.

Nymex WTI (93.35) has also fallen sharply and is finding it very difficult to rise above 96. While that continues we may soon see a fall towards 92 in the coming sessions.

Copper (3.173) has risen well to test resistance near 3.21 which if holds may keep prices ranged below 3.209 for sometime before breaking above 3.21 levels. Overall near term is bullish.

FOREX
Sterling is getting absolutely battered with the surveys predicting a win for the “Yes” vote in the Scottish Independence Referendum results coming out on 18th September. Other Majors are taking a pause after sharp moves on last Friday and may remain sleepy today.

The Euro (1.2952) made the longest bearish weekly candle last week since October 2013. A break below the minor support at 1.2920 may take it down to 1.2780-40. At best, the bulls can expect a sideways price action for a few days.

Dollar-Yen (105.06) has hit a fresh 6-year high at 105.71 and looks all set for a rally towards 108-109 as discussed earlier. Keep an eye on whether or not Nikkei is able to break above 16150-300 or not. The Euro-Yen Cross (136.25) is trying to take a pause after testing the August low near 135.80-70 but this looks temporary before going down to 134.70-50.

The Pound (1.6226) has opened with a huge gap down, with the possibility of “Yes” votes winning in the Scottish Independence Referendum affecting it. Our initial target of 1.6250 has been achieved in a single session and the next target 1.61 looks very close.

The Aussie (0.9367) remains strong as Shanghai keeps rising in its bull market. The upper end of the range of 0.92-0.94 has been tested and now the Aussie-bulls may attempt to rise towards 0.95.

Dollar-Rupee (60.39) did not break the support around 60.35 as expected but the structure hints at the possibility of seeing 60.10-00 soon. Just like the previous session, trading below 60.30 in the opening hour would ensure the weakness but intraday price action may be grinding.

INTEREST RATES
After the cut in rates by the ECB, Euro (1.295) remains to trade low for now and may need time to recover.
The German-US 2Yr Spread (-0.57%) is clearly in a downtrend and may test support near -0.61%. The German-US 10Yr (-1.51%) is also headed downwards targeting -1.75% in the near term. Overall chances of a fall in the European yields.

US Yields have moved up a decent bit in the meanwhile. The 5Yr (1.68%) and 10Yr (2.44%) have come down a bit and 30Yr (3.22%) is up by 1bps. The 30Yr yield is rising the most and may continue in the near future. Note that the 5Yr faces an upcoming resistance near 1.74% while the 2Yr (0.51%) is trading just below resistance near current levels. Need to keep a close watch.

The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.5221%) is sable above the 5.50% level and while above 5.50% it may target 5.55% in the near term.

DATA TODAY



2:00 GMT or 7:30 IST CN Trade Bal
...Expected 40.8 $ Bln ...Previous 47.30 $ Bln ...Actual 49.8 $ Bln

11:50 GMT or 17:20 IST JP GDP
...Expected -1.8% ...Previous -1.7% ...Actual -1.8 %


FRIDAY'S DATA:-

US NFP
...Expected 222 K ...Previous 212 K ...Actual 142 K

US Unemployment Rate
...Expected 6.10 % ...Previous 6.20 % ...Actual 6.30 %

CA Labour Force
...Expected 10.3 K ...Previous 41.7 K ...Actual -11.0 K

CA PMI
...Expected 55.7 ...Previous 54.10 ...Actual 50.9

 

 

 

 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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