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Monday September 8, 2014 - 03:56:22 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 08-Sep-2014 -0356 GMT


The weaker than expected NFP number has been interpreted as another reason for the Fed not to hike rates soon. That has kept the markets in the green in a muted manner.

Dow (17137.36, +0.40%) tested both the ends of the two week old range 17000-150 and now may break out of the range any day this week to test the resistance area in 17350-450.

Dax (9747.02, +0.23%) is close to the final resistance of 9800 and may take a pause here before trying to rally again. As our previous bearish bias is on the verge of reversal, if 9800 fails to push the index down, targets of 10000 and even 10600 will have to be considered.

The Shanghai (2326.43, +0.85%) bears are getting annihilated as the index rises with a phenomenal pace. Our target of 2350 is very close now and larger targets of 2400-2450 looks more plausible. The Nikkei (15699.19, +0.19%) is stuck in a 200 points range in 15650-850 for the last 4 sessions but needs to break above 15950 soon to continue the upmove that can target 16000, maybe even 16150-300.

The Nifty (8086.85, -0.11%) continued correction for the third session with the bullish momentum intact as it remained above the short term support area of 8050-40. The Bullish Flag seen in the hourly charts will signal a rally towards 8190-8200 on a break above 8110-25.

Gold (1268.973) is trading above the crucial 1262-1260 levels and may show some ranged moves in the 1260-1280 region in the coming sessions.

Silver (19.227) is stable tarding below 19.26 for now and may continue to range sideways for a few sessions. 19-18.5 is more likely while below 19.26.

Brent (100.75) is trading low and may see 99.6 while below 101. Bears remain strongly dominant. Near term is bearish for now.

Nymex WTI (93.35) has also fallen sharply and is finding it very difficult to rise above 96. While that continues we may soon see a fall towards 92 in the coming sessions.

Copper (3.173) has risen well to test resistance near 3.21 which if holds may keep prices ranged below 3.209 for sometime before breaking above 3.21 levels. Overall near term is bullish.

Sterling is getting absolutely battered with the surveys predicting a win for the “Yes” vote in the Scottish Independence Referendum results coming out on 18th September. Other Majors are taking a pause after sharp moves on last Friday and may remain sleepy today.

The Euro (1.2952) made the longest bearish weekly candle last week since October 2013. A break below the minor support at 1.2920 may take it down to 1.2780-40. At best, the bulls can expect a sideways price action for a few days.

Dollar-Yen (105.06) has hit a fresh 6-year high at 105.71 and looks all set for a rally towards 108-109 as discussed earlier. Keep an eye on whether or not Nikkei is able to break above 16150-300 or not. The Euro-Yen Cross (136.25) is trying to take a pause after testing the August low near 135.80-70 but this looks temporary before going down to 134.70-50.

The Pound (1.6226) has opened with a huge gap down, with the possibility of “Yes” votes winning in the Scottish Independence Referendum affecting it. Our initial target of 1.6250 has been achieved in a single session and the next target 1.61 looks very close.

The Aussie (0.9367) remains strong as Shanghai keeps rising in its bull market. The upper end of the range of 0.92-0.94 has been tested and now the Aussie-bulls may attempt to rise towards 0.95.

Dollar-Rupee (60.39) did not break the support around 60.35 as expected but the structure hints at the possibility of seeing 60.10-00 soon. Just like the previous session, trading below 60.30 in the opening hour would ensure the weakness but intraday price action may be grinding.

After the cut in rates by the ECB, Euro (1.295) remains to trade low for now and may need time to recover.
The German-US 2Yr Spread (-0.57%) is clearly in a downtrend and may test support near -0.61%. The German-US 10Yr (-1.51%) is also headed downwards targeting -1.75% in the near term. Overall chances of a fall in the European yields.

US Yields have moved up a decent bit in the meanwhile. The 5Yr (1.68%) and 10Yr (2.44%) have come down a bit and 30Yr (3.22%) is up by 1bps. The 30Yr yield is rising the most and may continue in the near future. Note that the 5Yr faces an upcoming resistance near 1.74% while the 2Yr (0.51%) is trading just below resistance near current levels. Need to keep a close watch.

The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.5221%) is sable above the 5.50% level and while above 5.50% it may target 5.55% in the near term.


2:00 GMT or 7:30 IST CN Trade Bal
...Expected 40.8 $ Bln ...Previous 47.30 $ Bln ...Actual 49.8 $ Bln

11:50 GMT or 17:20 IST JP GDP
...Expected -1.8% ...Previous -1.7% ...Actual -1.8 %


...Expected 222 K ...Previous 212 K ...Actual 142 K

US Unemployment Rate
...Expected 6.10 % ...Previous 6.20 % ...Actual 6.30 %

CA Labour Force
...Expected 10.3 K ...Previous 41.7 K ...Actual -11.0 K

...Expected 55.7 ...Previous 54.10 ...Actual 50.9






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