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Mixed Risk.Poll Seeing Pro-Scot Independence Vote Ahead Shakes UK Markets

Mixed Risk.Poll Seeing Pro-Scot Independence Vote Ahead Shakes  UK Markets
  September 8, 2014 09:30 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
 Early Monday markets suddenly have to contend with the risk of a "YES" vote in the Scottish independence referendums on September 18. The GBP is sharply lower. Markets are in a mixed RISK posture is a week with few major data releases slated. The  EURUSD remains below  the 1.30 line.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower. The 10-yr bund is 0.925%  -1.2bp. Peripheral bond yields are up.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.47%  +1.0bp. A February 2015 BOE rate hike is up in the air until the Scotland vote is taken,.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.446%, -1.3bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mixed. Bourses in Europe are mixed as well. The FTSE is down. U.S. share futures are lower.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS:  No Major Data
    • Key Chinese trade data saw exports increase and the trade surplus rise. This suggests increased demand over time for Australian raw material exports.
    • News over the weekend of a pre-independence referendum poll sees the pro-independences vote ahead. The news has shaken confidence in the pound. 
    • Dealers are still be digesting the disappointing August U..S. employment data. So far many analysts are trying (hoping?) to dismiss the data as an anomaly. I recommend traders take an open mind on the data.
    • On Tuesday UK production and trade data are released. Late Wednesday, will bring the latest RBNZ policy decision.
    •  On Thursday, a main feature is Australian jobs data. Friday features U.S. retail Sales figures and the University of Michigan Survey.
    • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
    Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
    00:50 JP GDP  Broadest measure of economy
    02:00 CN Trade  Important China metric
    07:15  CH CPI  Important China price metric
    08:30 GB Visible Trade Key UK contribution to growth

    00:30 JP Trade Important Japan growth  metric
    21:00 NZ OCR+Statement  Monetary policy
    01:30 AU Payrolls Key growth metric
    12:30 US Initial Claims Employment measure
    19:00 EZ Draghi Milan  Draghi always closely followed
    05:30 JP Ind Out  Japanese Production
    12:30 US Retail Sales Consumer is King
    13:55 US U Mich prelim Consumer Sentiment

    Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
    09/09/14 0:00 TUESDAY
    09/09/14 8:30 B GB Ind Output m 0.20% 0.30%
    09/09/14 8:30 B GB Ind Output y 1.30% 1.20%
    09/09/14 8:30 B GB Mfg Output m 0.30% 0.30%
    09/09/14 8:30 B GB Mfg Output yy 2.20% 1.90%
    09/09/14 8:30 A GB Visible Trade -9.1 -9.41
    09/09/14 8:30 A GB Trade- Non-EU -3.6 -3.84
    09/09/14 14:00 B US Wholesale Inventories 0.50% 0.30%
    09/09/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 3-yr n/a n/a
    09/09/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
    10/09/14 0:00 WEDNESDAY
    10/09/14 0:30 A JP Trade JPYb n/a -537.1
    10/09/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
    10/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a -0.905
    10/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a -2.3
    10/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Distillate mn n/a 0.6
    10/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 93.30%
    10/09/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 10-yr n/a n/a
    10/09/14 21:00 A NZ OCR+Statement 3.00% 3.25%
    11/09/14 0:00 THURSDAY
    11/09/14 1:30 A AU % Jobless 6.30% 6.40%
    11/09/14 1:30 A AU Payrolls 15 -0.3
    11/09/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 300 302
    11/09/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.46
    11/09/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 79
    11/09/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 30-yr n/a n/a
    11/09/14 19:00 A EZ Draghi Milan n/a n/a

    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

    See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

    John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
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    AA 9:30 GB- CPI
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