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Monday September 8, 2014 - 10:35:59 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: GBP currency volatility rises as Scottish "Yes" vote for independence moves into majority in polls with less than 2-weeks until the referendum

Mon, 08 Sep 2014 5:15 AM EST

- "Yes" vote now leads in most recent You Poll on Scottish independence; GBP currency slumps
- China Aug Trade Balance registers its second straight record surplus ($49.8B v $40.0Be) as exports surge while imports slump
- German July trade balance hits a record high (22.2B vs. 17.0Be)
- Ukraine/Russian separatists' cease-fire continues to hold but multiple violations since Saturday

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (JP) Japan Aug Bankruptcies Y/Y: -11.2% v -14.0% prior
- (JP) Japan Aug Eco Watchers Current Survey: 47.4 v 51.0e (1st decline in 4 months); Outlook Survey: 50.4 v 51.5 prior (3rd consecutive decline)
- (CH) Swiss Aug Unemployment Rate: 3.0% v 3.0%e; Unemployment Rate SA: 3.2% v 3.2%e
- (FI) Finland July Preliminary Trade Balance: -300M v -57M prior
- (DE) Germany Q2 Labor Costs Q/Q: +0.7 v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 0.5% prior
- (DE) Germany July Current Account Balance: 21.7B v 14.5Be; Trade Balance 23.4B v 17.0Be; Exports M/M: 4.7% v 0.6%e; Imports M/M: -1.8% v +0.3%e
- (FR) Bank of France Aug Business Sentiment: 97 v 95e
- (SE) Sweden SEB Housing Price Indicator: 64 v 62 prior
- (HU) Hungary Aug Foreign Currency Reserves: 35.5B v 30.1B prior
- (UK) Aug Halifax House Prices M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e; 3M/Y: 9.7% v 10.0%e
- (ES) Spain Q2 INE House Price Index Q/Q: +1.7% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: +0.8% v -1.6% prior
- (DK) Denmark July Current Account Balance (DKK): 11.0B v 10.7Be; Trade Balance (ex-Shipping): 6.0B v 6.1Be
- (TR) Turkey July Industrial Production M/M: 1.8% v 0.5%e; Y/y: 3.6% v 1.9%e
- (HU) Hungary July Preliminary Trade Balance: 497.6M v 248.6Me
- (CZ) Czech Aug Unemployment Rate: 7.4% v 7.4%e
- (CZ) Czech July National Trade Balance (CZK): 11.5B v 10.0Be
- (CZ) Czech July Industrial Output Y/Y: 8.6% v 7.5%e; Construction Output Y/Y: -3.7% v 6.0% prior
- (EU) ECB 116M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 0.0M prior; 26.7B parked in deposit facility vs. 28.1B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) Swiss Aug CPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.0%e
- (CH) Swiss Aug CPI Harmonized M/M: -0.2% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: +0.1% v -0.1% prior
- (CH) Swiss July Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -0.6% v +3.3% prior
- (SE) Sweden July Household Consumption M/M: -1.2% v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.5% v 2.5% prior
- (CZ) Czech Aug International Reserves: $56.9B v $57.5B prior
- (UK) Lloyds Aug Employment Confidence: 6 v 6 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Sept Sentix Investor Confidence: -9.8 v +1.4e; first negative reading since Aug 2013)

Fixed Income
- None seen

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.3%
, FTSE 100 -0.6% at 6,809, DAX flat at 9,745, CAC-40 -0.3% at 4,472, IBEX-35 -0.5% at 11,098, FTSE MIB -0.2% at 21,348, SMI -0.1% at 8,781, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 2,003]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Continental European equity markets trade mostly lower amid widening in peripheral debt spreads, FTSE 100 lags as banks decline on uncertainty related to the Scottish referendum vote, Basic Materials and Energy sectors lower following weaker than expected imports from China and decline in oil prices, Russian equities slightly lower amid Ukraine cease-fire, GE confirms sale of appliances unit to Electrolux

By Sector
- Financials
[RBS RBS.UK and Lloyds LLOY.UK -2.5% (concerns related to Scottish referendum vote)]
- Industries [Electrolux ELUXB.SE +8% (acquisition of GE's appliance unit)]
- Consumer Staples [Associated British Foods ABF.UK -3% (cautious outlook for sugar unit)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Basic Materials -0.7%, Energy -0.6%, Industrials -0.5%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.5%, Utilities -0.2%,Consumer Cyclical -0.1%, Technology -0.1%; Telecom +0.1%, Financials flat]

- Poland Central Bank Chojna-Duc
h (dove): Polish rate cut in Oct should be 50bps
- OSCE Chief: Ukraine cease-fire has held, but on shaky ground; next few days critical
- Japan Govt advisor Hamada: Raising sales tax by 1%/year was an option as was delaying the next planned hike by a year. He also noted that a weak Yen currency benefited and it could weaken further
- India Economic Affairs Sec Mayaram stated that he expected inflation to come down and growth rebound. He did not know now if India would borrow less in FY15 and would have to wait until meeting with RBI and Finance Ministry for details of plan
- Singapore Manpower Min Khor: Considering raising retirement age from 65 to 67

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The GBP was broader weaker from the onset of trading in Asia after supporters of Scotland independence had taken the lead in polls for the first time ahead of the Sept 18th referendum vote (51% to 49%). GBP/USD was at 9-month low testing below 1.62 handle. Some analysts noted that BOE might delay first potential rate hike should Scotland vote 'yes' in the Sept 18th referendum. GBP 1-month volatility hit a 13-month high with its largest rise since the start of the financial crisis in Oct 2008
- The EUR/USD began the week consolidating from its recent 14-month lows. The pair was expected to remain under pressure in the near term as the policy action taken by the ECB last week put the focus on the EUR as the transmission channel for monetary easing

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Lautenschlager (Germany): Decision to cut interest rates was necessary to prevent the risks of too-low inflation - German media
- (EU) ECB's Visco (Italy): ECB should not hesitate to take further action on monetary policy if needed - Italian press
- IMF Chief Lagarde: Global growth predictions being revised; EUR/USD in line with balance of payments (its not overvalued)
- (GR) Greece PM Samaras: Greece GDP to return to growth in Q3 for the first time in 6 years - financial press
- (IT) Italy Econ Min Padoan: Govt committed to defend Italy's sovereign credit standing; Important to respect EU's 3% deficit ceiling - financial press
- (ES) Spain Fin Min de Guindos: Spanish banks said to seek up to 30B in ECB loans
- (UR) Ukraine govt forces were under artillery fire on Saturday; Marked the first violation of the ceasefire declared on Friday - financial press ; Separately, separatist leaders alleged Ukrainian units had launched several missiles toward rebel positions after the truce went into effect.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU and Ukraine Energy Ministers meet in Baku
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 2.0B in 6-month BuBill
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal July Trade Balance: No est v -790M prior
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell 2027 Bonds
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell 2017, 2019 2023 and 2024 Bonds
- 06:30 (ES) Spain Fin Min Guindos speaks in Madrid on OECD Report
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Aug CPI M/M 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 4.3%e v 4.5% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Aug Trade Balance: No est v $380.0M prior; Total Exports: No est v $6.5B prior; Total Imports: No est v $6.1B prior; Copper Exports: No est v $3.3B prior
- 08:15 Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (CA) Canada July Building Permits M/M: No est v 13.5% prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 6.5-7.7B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 09:45 (UK) BOE reverse auction; to purchase 1.6B in 3-7 year Gilts (residual)
- 11:00 (US) Fed to Purchase U$0.95-1.15B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 15:00 (US) July Consumer Credit: $17.2Be v $17.3B prior

- 16:00 (US) Crop Condition Report
- 19:50 (JP) BOJ Minutes from Aug 8th decision


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