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Tuesday September 9, 2014 - 03:36:47 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 09-Sep-2014 -0337 GMT


The surge in German Exports helped Dax a bit and Nikkei got some help from a falling Yen but overall, nearly all the markets have remained unchanged.

Dow (17111.42, -0.15%) traded inside the two week old range 17000-150 for the 10th session and now may break out of the range any day this week to test the resistance area in 17350-450.

Dax (9758.03, +0.11%) is close to the final resistance of 9800 and may take a pause here before trying to rally again. As our previous bearish bias is on the verge of reversal, if 9800 fails to push the index down, targets of 10000 and even 10600 will have to be considered.

The Shanghai (2325.90, -0.02%) bears are getting annihilated as the index rises with a phenomenal pace. Our target of 2350 is very close now and larger targets of 2400-2450 looks more plausible. The Nikkei (15743.23, +0.25%) is stuck in a 200 points range in 15650-850 for the last 5 sessions but needs to break above 15950 soon to continue the upmove that can target 16000, maybe even 16150-300.

The Nifty (8173.90, +1.08%) broke out of the Bullish Flag to reach within 10 points of our target of 8190-8200. As this bull market doesnít show any weakness even in the short term, 8400-8500 can be expected soon with 8050 remaining the important support.

Commodities are trading low to test near term supports. Overall remains bearish.

Gold (1255.81) is trading lower today testing the channel support near 1255. Support is found on the weekly charts which if holds may see a short term bounce else the next level to watch would be 1240 and further 1225-1200. Near term is bearish.

Silver (19.03) continues to fall towards very crucial support near 19-18.5 from where we may see a rise back towards 20.

Brent (100.21) made an intra-day low of 99.36 yesterday breaking below the crucial 99.66 level. Two major levels to look for now is 98.74 and 96.75 which are important supports coming up. Bears continue to dominate for now.

Nymex WTI (93.14) has fallen further and is testing support near 91.77. Note that 91.77-91.05 is a good support zone and if it is unable to rebound from here, it may face the danger of falling to 89-85 as seen in Aprilí13. However a bounce from current levels may see a short term rise towards 96.

Copper (3.1660) came off after testing channel resistance at 3.2095 yesterday. Prices may remain trapped in the 3.21-3.10 region in the coming sessions and unless a break on either side of the range is seen, it is difficult to determine further direction.

Incessant Dollar buying is taking place. Yen and Sterling are close to very important levels, where the price action will affect the entire structure of these pairs and resultantly, other pairs and even equities too. Keep watch.

The Euro (1.2881) has broken below 1.2920 to signal further drop towards 1.2780-40. The current angle of the fall suggests either some sideways price action for a few sessions or much steeper fall, near vertical. It should select either path by tomorrow.

Dollar-Yen (106.22) is rising fast towards the 12-year old long term trendline resistance of 108-109 and the price action there will have severe impact on this pair and Nikkei. The Euro-Yen Cross (136.82) extended the pause mentioned earlier on the back of a much weaker Yen. But this pause looks temporary before the fall resumes for 134.70-50.

The Pound (1.6083) is approaching the 3 year old long term support area around 1.6025-00. If the current fall doesnít stop in the band of 1.60-1.59, the entire long term structure will be threatened and much deeper targets will open the downside.

The Aussie (0.9264), contrary to expectations, fell sharply to test 0.9250 levels once again. This test 0.9250-0.92 has been taking place too many times in too short a period, suggesting lack of strength. If 0.94 is not broken in the next few sessions, expect the range of 0.92-0.94 to be broken on the downside soon.

Dollar-Rupee (60.29) broke below 60.35 at last to reach 60.19 levels but the bearish strength look suspect. Follow up selling from 60.30-35 is required today or a bounce to 60.35 and then 60.55 canít be ruled out.

FIIs continue to invest in Indian debt. There is news of India working on a ratings upgrade. Should it come through, there can be more money coming into India on the Debt side. The 10Yr GOI (8.503%) came off further yesterday (instead of rising towards 8.55%) and is just a wee bit above the crucial 8.50% Support now. Look for a dip towards 8.45-8.40% if it breaks.

US Yields are looking up across the Curve, but also face Resistances near current levels or a little higher. Whether they are able to break above these Resistances or not is going to be important. Even the 2Yr (0.55%) is trying to break above an important Resistance near current levels. There is a chance of a small Double Bottom on the 10Yr (2.50%), but it also has an important Resistance near 2.52-2.55%. If US Yields are unable to break the Resistances, we could see fresh declines ahead. the easier path on the charts points to the downside only as of now.

The German Yield Curve has been continuing to steepen over the last few days even as the Euro (1.2880 now) has continued to weaken. At the same time, the Spain-Germany 10yr Spread (1.1390%) has broken below an earlier long-term support near 1.30% and continues to move lower. The KSHITIJ E-4 Composite 10Yr (1.1706%) is trying to break below a crucially important support near 1.17%. Watching this. A break would be significant.


8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK Trade Balance
...Expected -9.66 £ (Bln) ...Previous -9.41 £ (Bln)

CN Trade Bal
...Expected 40.8 $ Bln ...Previous 47.30 $ Bln ...Actual 49.8 $ Bln

...Expected -1.8% ...Previous -1.7% ...Actual -1.8 %






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