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Tuesday September 9, 2014 - 09:22:19 GMT -

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Another Poll Confirms Scotland Opinion Swing to Independence

Another Poll Confirms Scotland Opinion Swing to Independence
  September 9, 2014 09:30 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
Markets moved into a mixed RISK posture Monday afternoon in the U.S. after term U.S. interest rates drifted higher in preparation for the Fed decision in just over a week. The Fed recently has been cautiously backing away from an ultra-dovish policy posture. U.K. Scotland worries persist. EURUSD remains sub-1.29.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are higher. The 10-yr bund is 0.991% +2.6bp. Peripheral bond yields are up.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.51%  +4.0bp. A February 2015 BOE rate hike is up in the air until the Scotland vote is taken.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.496%, +1.9bp. The psychological pivot is 2.50%.
  • Far East equities closed mixed. Bourses in Europe mostly lower. U.S. share futures are lower.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS: No Major Data
    • Another Scotland opinion was shown a strong swing in favor of a yes vote for independence. This news has been a weight on the GBP.
    • July U.K. production data were better than expected. Trade data worsened in line with a stronger economy (increased import demand. 
    • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. 
    • Late Wednesday, will bring the latest RBNZ policy decision. On Thursday, a main feature is Australian jobs data. Friday features U.S. retail Sales figures and the University of Michigan Survey.
    • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
    Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
    08:30 GB Visible Trade Key UK contribution to growth

    00:30 JP Trade Important Japan growth  metric
    21:00 NZ OCR+Statement  Monetary policy
    01:30 AU Payrolls Key growth metric
    12:30 US Initial Claims Employment measure
    19:00 EZ Draghi Milan  Draghi always closely followed
    05:30 JP Ind Out  Japanese Production
    12:30 US Retail Sales Consumer is King
    13:55 US U Mich prelim Consumer Sentiment

    Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
    09/09/14 14:00 B US Wholesale Inventories 0.50% 0.30%
    09/09/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 3-yr n/a n/a
    09/09/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
    10/09/14 0:00 WEDNESDAY
    10/09/14 0:30 A JP Trade JPYb n/a -537.1
    10/09/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
    10/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a -0.905
    10/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a -2.3
    10/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Distillate mn n/a 0.6
    10/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 93.30%
    10/09/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 10-yr n/a n/a
    10/09/14 21:00 A NZ OCR+Statement 3.00% 3.25%
    11/09/14 0:00 THURSDAY
    11/09/14 1:30 A AU % Jobless 6.30% 6.40%
    11/09/14 1:30 A AU Payrolls 15 -0.3
    11/09/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 300 302
    11/09/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.46
    11/09/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 79
    11/09/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 30-yr n/a n/a
    11/09/14 19:00 A EZ Draghi Milan n/a n/a
    12/09/14 0:00 FRIDAY
    12/09/14 9:00 B EZ Ind Prod mm n/a -1.10%
    12/09/14 9:00 B EZ Ind Prod yy n/a 0.50%
    12/09/14 12:30 A US Ret Sales 0.40% 0.00%
    12/09/14 12:30 A US Sales x-auto 0.30% 0.10%
    12/09/14 12:30 A US Sales X-auto&gas n/a n/a
    12/09/14 12:30 C US Imp Prices n/a n/a
    12/09/14 13:55 A US U Mich prelim 83.1 82.5
    12/09/14 14:00 C US Bus Inv 0.50% 0.40%
    12/09/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

    See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

    John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
    Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved


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