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Tuesday September 9, 2014 - 10:33:48 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Scotland independence worries persist for UK

Tue, 09 Sep 2014 5:22 AM EST

- Second opinion poll has confirmed the race to keep Scotland within the UK was neck-and-neck
- USD continues its firm trend against major pairs and commodity-related ones and aided by report from SF Fed that large financial institutions saw a more modest pace of rate increases than is indicated by Fed officials
- UK posts its largest trade deficit since April 2012 while Industrial Production saw its largest rise in 6 months

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (JP) Japan Aug Consumer Confidence Index: 41.2 v 42.3e; first decline in four months
- (JP) Japan Aug Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: 35.6% v 37.7% prior
- (FR) France July YTD Budget Balance: -84.1B v -59.4B prior
- (FR) France July Trade Balance: -5.5B v -5.0Be
- (CZ) Czech Aug CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.5%e
- (EU) ECB 0.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 116.0M prior; 24.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 26.7B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NL) Netherlands July Industrial Production M/M: +1.9% v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: +0.7% v -1.3% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: +0.7% v -0.2% prior
- (TW) Taiwan Aug Trade Balance: $4.1B v $3.7Be; Exports Y/Y: 9.6% v 4.5%e; Imports Y/Y: 14.1% v 9.4% e
- (CZ) Czech Q2 Current Account Balance (CZK): -1.2B v -0.1B e
- (ZA) South Africa Q2 Current Account Balance (ZAR): -222B v -201Be; C/At to GDP ratio: -6.2% v -5.5%e
- (UK) July Visible Trade Balance: -10.2B v -9.1Be (largest deficit since April 2012); Overall Trade Balance: -3.5B v -2.3Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -4.4B v -3.6Be
- (UK) July Industrial Production M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e (largest rise in 6 months); Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.3%e
- (UK) July Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.2%e

- (IT) Bank of Italy Monthly Report `Money and Banks': Gross non-performing (bad) loans Y/Y: 20.8% v 20.5% prior
- (GR) Greece July Industrial Production Y/Y: -2.1% v -5.4% prior
- (CY) Cyprus Aug CPI Harmonized M/M: +0.1% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.9% prior

Fixed Income
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency
(DSTA) sold 1.6B vs. 1.5-2.5B indicated range in 2% 2024 DSL Bonds; Avg Yield: 1.137% v 1.473% prior
- (AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) sold total 1.21B vs. 1.21B indicated in 2024 and 2034 RAGB bonds
- (EU) ECB allotted 110.7B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.05% vs. 109Be
(CH) Switzerland sold CHF788.5M in 3-month bills; Yield: -0.095%

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.2%
, DAX -0.1% at 9,748, CAC-40 flat at 4,473, IBEX-35 -0.7% at 11,025, FTSE MIB flat at 21,289, SMI +0.2% at 8,833, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 1,998]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower following mixed trading in the US, UK FTSE 100 and banks remain heavy amid uncertainty related to Scottish referendum, Shares of Gamesa and Spanish banks weigh on the IBEX-35, ABB shares supported by large buyback, L'Oreal issues cautious outlook

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[L'Oreal OR.FR -2% (cautious outlook)]
- Telecom [Telecom Italia TIT.IT +2.5% (speculation related to TIM Brasil), Portugal Telecom PTC.PT +2% (H1 profits rose); - Telefonica Deutschland O2D.DE -1% (capital raise)]
- Industrials [Finmeccanica FNC.IT +3% (renewed speculation related to Ansaldo), ABB ABBN.CH +2.5% ($4B buyback)]
- Financials [MunichRe MUV2.DE -1% (broker commentary)]
- Healthcare [Evotec EVT.DE -15% (clinical update)]
- Energy [Gamesa [GAM.ES -3% (share placement)]
- Technology [Quindell QPP.UK +7% (favorable court ruling)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.6%, Basic Materials -0.3%, Energy -0.3%, Financials -0.3%, Consumer Cyclical -0.1%, Technology -0.1%, Industrials -0.1%; Telecom +0.2%, Utilities +0.1%]

- ECB's Coeure
(France): Stronger Euro justified more accommodating policy
- German Fin Min Schaeuble budget speech in Parliament noted that the economic environment had weaken somewhat due to external factors but stressed Germany must continue its stability policies, anything else could lead to a crisis of confidence. Europe must adhere to rules and maintain the stability and growth pact and was erroneous to assume that deficit-finance fostered sustained economic growth
- Poland Central Bank Osiatynski (dove) stated that central bank could cut rates in Oct to offset ECB measures and support economy; would support rate cut larger than 25bps
- Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Ceasefire in Ukraine being observed overall
- India RBI advisor Goyal stated that it was not a given that inflation would rise and moving to a regime of positive real interest rates. He also saw possibility of adjustment to rates if inflation met central bank's 2015 target
- Australia official: Terror alert may be raised to 'high' from 'medium'

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD continued its firm tone and was further aided by a SF Fed report noting public perception of large financial institutions saw a more modest pace of rate increases than was indicated by Fed officials.

- The EUR/USD continued to hit fresh 14-month lows after testing 1.2860 in the session
- A second opinion poll has confirmed the race to keep Scotland within the UK was neck-and-neck and the GBP/USD pair dipped below the 1.61 handle on deeper concerns due to possible outcome of Scotland vote. The July Trade balance saw the country register its largest visible trade deficit since April 2012 and was another headwind for the pound.
- A weaker Yen supported Japanese markets with USD/JPY at 6-year highs above 106.35 in the session

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Constancio: Not excluding any instrument that we see as legal; there are further tools we can use - financial press
- (IT) Bank of Italy reportedly to widen definition of collateral for Italian banks to borrow funds from the ECB in order to facilitate TLTRO financing
- (UK) TNS poll on Scotland independence: yes vote at 38%, no vote at 39% - UK press; TNS originally planned to release findings overnight on Tuesday, but brought forward after concerned analysts and market traders inquired them about their poll, for the first time, following YouGov's findings
- (US) San Francisco Fed releases report on assessing expectations of monetary policy; Evidence based on surveys, market expectations, and model estimates show that the public seems to expect a more accommodative policy than Federal Open Market Committee participants.
-(RU) EU's Van Rompuy: EU has formally adopted new sanctions on Russia in retaliation for Ukraine situation; will delay sanctions for a few days due to developments that are pending; Delay leaves room to review the new sanctions if events dictate

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- OECD to release first recommendations for combating international tax avoidance by multinational enterprises
- (MX) Mexico Aug ANTAD Same-Store Sales Y/Y: No est v 0.7% prior
- (PE) Peru July Trade Balance: No est v -$320M prior
- (ZA) South Africa to sell 2032, 2044 and 2048 Bonds
- (SI) Slovenia Debt Agency to sell 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills
- 05:30 (FI) ECB's Liikanen (Finland) speaks at Finnish Parliament Hearing
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-month Bills
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 1.0B in Apr 0.5% I/L 2030 Bund
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 850M in 0.25% I/L 2052 Gilts

- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Q3 BER Business Confidence: No est v 41 prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Retail Association APED Announces 1H Sales Barometer
- 06:00 (PT) Bank of Portugal reports Jun ECB financing to Portuguese banks
- 06:45 (UK) BOE Gov Carney in Liverpool
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Finance Ministry decides whether to hold weekly OFZ Bond auction (held Wed if planned)
- 07:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank comments on release of Aug CPI data
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Sept IGP-M Inflation 1st Preview: +0.2%e v -0.3% prior
- 07:30 (US) Aug NFIB Small Business Optimism: 96.0e v 95.7 prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:15 (CA) Canada Aug Annualized Housing Starts: 195.0Ke v 200.1K prior
- 08:15 Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Aug CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 4.1%e v 4.1% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: v 213.3B prior
- 09:45 (UK) BOE reverse auction; to purchase 1.6B in 15+ year gilts (residual)
- 10:00 (UK) Aug NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.6% prior
- 10:00 (US) July JOLTS Job Openings: 4.7Me v 4.671M prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 10:00 (US) Fed's Tarullo in Senate banking committee
- 10:30 (CA) Canada to sell 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills
- 11:15 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2019, 2023, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (US) DOE Short-Term Crude Outlook
- 13:00 (US) (US) Treasury to sell $27B in 3-Year Notes
- 21:30 (JP) BOJ Deputy Gov Iwata speaks in Kanazawa City
- (US) Delaware Holds Primary Elections
- (US) Massachusetts Holds Primary Elections
- (US) New Hampshire Holds Primary Elections
- (US) Rhode Island Holds Primary Elections


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