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Wednesday September 10, 2014 - 03:28:24 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 10-Sep-2014 -0328 GMT


All the markets are undergoing normal shallow corrections but no trend reversal is seen yet. Large drops are visible in the Commodities and Currencies but the Equities seem to be benefiting from everything.

Dow (17013.87, -0.57%) is on the verge of breaking the two week old range 17000-150 but this correction may not go lower than 16800 even on a downside break. This correction may end by Thursday and then a new high can be expected.

Dax (9710.70, +0.49%) is in the expected pause but the uptrend remains unharmed above 9600. As our previous bearish bias is on the verge of reversal, if 9800 fails to push the index down, targets of 10000 and even 10600 will have to be considered.

The Shanghai (2314.21, -0.53%) is correcting after six straight days of gains of over 1%. A dip till 2285-70 would only be a natural correction in this bull phase. The Nikkei (15674.81, -0.47%) is stuck in a 200 points range in 15650-850 for the last 6 sessions but needs to break above 16000 soon to continue the upmove. Weakness below 15600.

The Nifty (8152.95, -0.26%) corrected a bit and may continue it if 8125 is broken in the initial hours today. But the actual trend reversal may come only on a break below 8070-50 now. Till then, the higher targets canít be ruled out, especially in a bull market like this.

Gold (1255.61) continues to be headed downwards but is trading above the support near 1255. Need to see if this support breaks or helps it to bounce back to 1260 levels.

Silver (19.04) saw an intra-day low of 18.87 yesterday and may soon test 18.5 in a couple of sessions from where a short term bounce could be expected.

Brent (99.39) has broken below our first level of 99.66 and may now test 98.74 also in the coming sessions. As said earlier two major levels to look now is 98.74 and 96.75 which are important supports and if holds may help it to bounce back to 100-101 levels.

Nymex WTI (92.93) is firmly bearish and may test support zone of 91.77-91.05 in the near term from where we may see a bounce towards 96.

Copper (3.10) has been sharply hit by resistance near 3.2095 pushing it to 3.10. If it is unable to remain above 3.09-3.10 in the coming sessions it may initiate a fresh fall towards 3.05-3.00.

All the Majors are in a sideways mode now, after the vertical fall in the last few sessions. Only Aussie got axed pointing to further weakness in Commodities. Weakness is visible in the EM currencies too and may result in a weaker Rupee today.

It seems, the Euro (1.2932) is choosing the sideways price action for a few sessions, as discussed yesterday morning. Staying below 1.2970, bear attacks would remain frequent and in any case, no bounce higher than 1.3050 is expected for now.

Dollar-Yen (106.34) is closer to the 12-year old long term trendline resistance of 108-109 and the price action there will have severe impact on this pair and Nikkei. The Euro-Yen Cross (137.49) is definitely running stronger than expected but a true upward reversal would emerge only on a break above 138.25. Till then, the possibility of sudden drops canít be ruled out.

The Pound (1.6083) is in a pause too, not far away from the 3 year old long term support area around 1.6025-00. If the current fall doesnít stop in the band of 1.60-1.59, the entire long term structure will be threatened and much deeper targets will open the downside.

The Aussie (0.9170) broke the 5-month range of 0.92-0.95 on the downside, exactly as speculated yesterday. On a break below the minor support area in 0.9150-30, the correction may target the major support in 0.9085-60.

Dollar-Rupee (60.6150) chose the bullish path and jumped to 60.55-65.The formation points to a retracement towards 60.90 or even 61.15-25 on a break above 60.70 in the opening hour.

The 8.50% psychological Support held yesterday as the Indian GOI 10Yr (8.522%) closed higher than the earlier 8.503%. However, the Indo-US 10Yr Spread (6.03%) has dipped from 6.06% earlier and could test important Support at 6.0%.

But, this Spread could widen again if the US 10Yr (2.50%) comes off from an important Resistance near current levels. As mentioned yesterday, there are Resistances near 1.78% on the 5Yr (currently 1.76%), 2.51-52% on the 10Yr (currently 2.50%) and near 3.27-28% on the 30Yr (currently 3.22%). While these Resistances hold, US Yields can start coming off again as the overall downtrend since Jan-14 is still in force at the moment.

German Yields (2Yr -0.074%, 5Yr 0.2185%, 10Yr 1.0%, 30Yr 1.946%) are all respectably higher than the levels on Monday. As mentioned yesterday, the Curve has steepened a bit in Germany, with the 10-2Yr Spread (1.07%) headed up towards important Resistance at 1.10% as compared to 0.92% at the beginning of the month. The German-US 10Yr Spread (-1.49%) has moved up 11bp from -1.58% earlier.

Yields have also risen in the rest of Europe. The KSHITIJ E4 10Yr Composite (1.2038%) is up a decent bit from the 1.1706% earlier and 1.1321% before that. This suggests that the crucially important Support at 1.17% mentioned yesterday is holding for the while. Need to keep watching it to see whether it can rise further towards 1.25% or not. A further rise from here could help the Euro (1.2935) gain some more on short-covering. Watch this.


No major data release today.

UK Trade Balance
...Expected -9.66 £ (Bln) ...Previous -9.41 £ (Bln) ...Actual -10.19 £ (Bln)






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