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This Week Features a Key FOMC Meeting Wednesday and Scottish Referendum Vote Thursday

This Week Features a Key FOMC Meeting Wednesday and Scottish Referendum Vote Thursday
 September 15, 2014 00:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
Key markets are heading into the weekend  in a mixed RISK posture as Europe closes for the day. The current focus is on the likely Fed decision next Wednesday. Many feel  that the Fed will be taking a less dovish posture at its meeting next Thursday. Better U.S. economic data today has driven U..S. yields up. Scotland referendum next Thursday.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are higher. The 10-yr bund is 1.024%, +2.5bp. Peripheral bond yields are higher.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.530% +3.0.0bp. BOE Governor Carney has signaled a Spring 2015 rate hike. The Scotland vote is Thursday, September 18.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.530%,  0.0bp. The psychological pivot has returned to 2.50%.
  • Far East equities closed mixed. Bourses in Europe are mostly weaker. U.S. share futures are lower.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS: GB- Inflation, DE- ZEW Survey, US- Empire PMI, Industrial Production
    • The upcoming week sees an active calendar. Monday features U.K. inflation data and the German ZEW Survey.
    • Polls lat last week on the Sottish independence referendum  put the pro-independence vote at around 48%, and the no vote at about 52%. It is still to close to call.
    • There is talk the FOMC could drop its "extended time period" from its policy statement next week. That could signal a move the timing of the first rate hike to early 2015. Rate hikes are likely to be gradual.
    • Tuesday sees U.S. PPI and TIC flows.
    • On Wednesday, U.K. employment, final EZ HICP and U.S. CPI data are due. The FOMC decision s awaited as well.
    • Thursday sees the Scottish Independence referendum, UK Retail Sales and U.S. Housing Starts. The major Item on Friday is Canadian CPI data. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
    Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):

    8:30 GB CPI  & RPI-X   Inflation key to BOE policy
    13:15 US Ind Prod  Cap Util U.S. Production key growth measure
    13:00 US TIC Net Flows  U.S. International Capital Flows
    0:30 JP Trade Japan big exporter
    8:30 GB Unemployment  top growth measure
    8:30 GB BOE Minutes  BOE Policy statement
    9:00 EZ Final Inflation key to ECB policy
    12:30 US Current Account widest trade measure
    12:30 US CPI  key Fed target
    18:00 FRB Fed Rates & Press Conference Fed policy decision THURSDAY
    Scotland Referendum
    7:30 CH SNB Swiss Monetary policy decision
    8:30 GB Ret Sls U.K. consumer demand mm  
    12:30 US Initial Claims weekly U.S. jobs data
    12:30 US House Starts key housing statistic
    12:45 FRB Yellen Washington post-meeting speech
    14:00 US Philly Fed regional sentiment survey
    12:30 CA CPI top BOC policy target

    Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
    15/09/14 8:30 A GB CPI mm 0.40% -0.30%
    15/09/14 8:30 A GB CPI yy 1.50% 1.60%
    15/09/14 8:30 A GB RPI-X 2.50% 2.60%
    15/09/14 8:30 B GB C-Out PPI y 0.90% 0.90%
    15/09/14 9:00 B DE ZEW Conditions 40 44.3
    15/09/14 9:00 B DE ZEW Expectations 5 8.6
    15/09/14 12:30 B US Empire PMI 16 14.7
    15/09/14 13:15 A US Ind Prod 0.30% 0.40%
    15/09/14 13:15 A US Cap Util n/a n/a
    16/09/14 0:00 TUESDAY
    16/09/14 12:30 B US PPI core 0.10% 0.10%
    16/09/14 12:30 B US PPI 0.10% 0.10%
    16/09/14 13:00 A US TIC Net Flows $b n/a n/a
    16/09/14 13:00 B US TIC L-T Flows Mar n/a -18.7
    16/09/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
    17/09/14 0:00 WEDNESDAY
    17/09/14 0:30 A JP Trade JPYb -1028 -964
    17/09/14 8:30 A GB ILO Unemploy 6.30% 6.40%
    17/09/14 8:30 A GB Avg Earn x-bonus 0.70% 0.60%
    17/09/14 8:30 A GB Avg Earn + bonus 0.50% -0.20%
    17/09/14 8:30 A GB Claimant Count k Mar -30 -33.6
    17/09/14 8:30 A GB BOE Minutes n/a n/a
    17/09/14 9:00 A EZ HICP mm 0.10% 0.30%
    17/09/14 9:00 A EZ HICP yy 0.30% 0.30%
    17/09/14 9:00 A EZ HICP core y 0.90% 0.90%
    17/09/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
    17/09/14 12:30 A US Current Account -113.8 -111.2
    17/09/14 12:30 A US CPI m 0.00% 0.10%
    17/09/14 12:30 A US CPI yy 1.90% 2.00%
    17/09/14 12:30 A US core CPI m 0.20% 0.10%
    17/09/14 12:30 A US core CPI yy 1.90% 1.90%
    17/09/14 14:00 B US NAHB Index 56 55
    17/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a -0.97
    17/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a 2.38
    17/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Distillate mn n/a -4.09
    17/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 93.90%
    17/09/14 18:00 A FRB Fed Rates 0.25% 0.25%
    17/09/14 18:30 A FRB Press Conference n/a n/a

    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

    See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

    John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
    Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved


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    Mon 19 Feb 2018
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