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Monday September 15, 2014 - 09:08:06 GMT
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RISK OFF into the FOMC Meeting Wednesday and the Scottish Referendum Vote Thursday

RISK OFF into the FOMC Meeting Wednesday and the Scottish Referendum Vote Thursday
 September 15, 2014 09:15 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
Markets are starting off the new week in a defensive RISK posture as many focus on the possibility of a more hawkish Fed on Wednesday. Latest polls have been seeing the Scottish independence vote failing on Thursday, but the vote is too close to call. The EURUSD is holding above 1.2900 and below 1.3000.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are higher. The 10-yr bund is 1.090%, +4.8bp. Peripheral bond yields are higher.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.550% +1.0.0bp. BOE Governor Carney has signaled a Spring 2015 rate hike. The Scotland vote is on Thursday.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.613%,  +0.2bp. The psychological pivot has returned to 2.50%.
  • Far East equities closed mixed. Bourses in Europe are mostly weaker. U.S. share futures are lower.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


    HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- Empire PMI, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
    • The upcoming week sees an active calendar. Today features the U.S. Empire PMI and Industrial Production.
    • Recent Polls on the Sottish independence referendum  put the pro-independence vote at around 48%, and the no vote at about 52%. It is still to close to call.
    • There is talk the FOMC could drop its "extended time period" from its policy statement next week. That could signal a move the timing of the first rate hike to early 2015. Rate hikes are likely to be gradual.
    • Tuesday sees U.K. inflation data, German ZEW Survey,  U.S. PPI and TIC flows.
    • On Wednesday, U.K. employment, final EZ HICP and U.S. CPI data are due. The FOMC decision s awaited as well.
    • Thursday sees the Scottish Independence referendum, UK Retail Sales and U.S. Housing Starts. The major Item on Friday is Canadian CPI data. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
    Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):

    MONDAY
    13:15 US Ind Prod  Cap Util U.S. Production key growth measure
    TUESDAY
    8:30 GB CPI  & RPI-X   Inflation key to BOE policy
    9:00 DE ZEW Survey- Key Sentiment Survey
    13:00 US TIC Net Flows  U.S. International Capital Flows
    WEDNESDAY
    0:30 JP Trade Japan big exporter
    8:30 GB Unemployment  top growth measure
    8:30 GB BOE Minutes  BOE Policy statement
    9:00 EZ Final Inflation key to ECB policy
    12:30 US Current Account widest trade measure
    12:30 US CPI  key Fed target
    18:00 FRB Fed Rates & Press Conference Fed policy decision THURSDAY
    Scotland Referendum
    7:30 CH SNB Swiss Monetary policy decision
    8:30 GB Ret Sls U.K. consumer demand mm  
    12:30 US Initial Claims weekly U.S. jobs data
    12:30 US House Starts key housing statistic
    12:45 FRB Yellen Washington post-meeting speech
    14:00 US Philly Fed regional sentiment survey
    FRIDAY
    12:30 CA CPI top BOC policy target

    FOREX CALENDAR
    Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
    15/09/14 12:30 B US Empire PMI 16 14.7
    15/09/14 13:15 A US Ind Prod 0.30% 0.40%
    15/09/14 13:15 A US Cap Util 79.30% 79.20%
    16/09/14 0:00 TUESDAY
    16/09/14 8:30 A GB CPI mm 0.40% -0.30%
    16/09/14 8:30 A GB CPI yy 1.50% 1.60%
    16/09/14 8:30 A GB RPI-X 2.50% 2.60%
    16/09/14 8:30 B GB C-Out PPI y 0.90% 0.90%
    16/09/14 9:00 B DE ZEW Conditions 40 44.3
    16/09/14 9:00 B DE ZEW Expectations 5 8.6
    16/09/14 12:30 B US PPI core 0.10% 0.10%
    16/09/14 12:30 B US PPI 0.10% 0.10%
    16/09/14 13:00 A US TIC Net Flows $b n/a n/a
    16/09/14 13:00 B US TIC L-T Flows Mar n/a -18.7
    16/09/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
    17/09/14 0:00 WEDNESDAY
    17/09/14 0:30 A JP Trade JPYb -1028 -964
    17/09/14 8:30 A GB ILO Unemploy 6.30% 6.40%
    17/09/14 8:30 A GB Avg Earn x-bonus 0.70% 0.60%
    17/09/14 8:30 A GB Avg Earn + bonus 0.50% -0.20%
    17/09/14 8:30 A GB Claimant Count k Mar -30 -33.6
    17/09/14 8:30 A GB BOE Minutes n/a n/a
    17/09/14 9:00 A EZ HICP mm 0.10% 0.30%
    17/09/14 9:00 A EZ HICP yy 0.30% 0.30%
    17/09/14 9:00 A EZ HICP core y 0.90% 0.90%
    17/09/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
    17/09/14 12:30 A US Current Account -113.8 -111.2
    17/09/14 12:30 A US CPI m 0.00% 0.10%
    17/09/14 12:30 A US CPI yy 1.90% 2.00%
    17/09/14 12:30 A US core CPI m 0.20% 0.10%
    17/09/14 12:30 A US core CPI yy 1.90% 1.90%
    17/09/14 14:00 B US NAHB Index 56 55
    17/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a -0.97
    17/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a 2.38
    17/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Distillate mn n/a -4.09
    17/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 93.90%
    17/09/14 18:00 A FRB Fed Rates 0.25% 0.25%
    17/09/14 18:30 A FRB Press Conference n/a n/a
    18/09/14 0:00 THURSDAY
    18/09/14 0:00 GB Scotland Referendum n/a n/a
    18/09/14 7:30 A CH SNB 0.00% 0.00%
    18/09/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls mm 0.40% 0.10%
    18/09/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls yy 4.00% 2.60%
    18/09/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls x-fuel mm 0.30% 0.50%
    18/09/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls X-fuel yy 4.80% 3.40%
    18/09/14 10:00 B GB CBI Ind Output Trends n/a 31
    18/09/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 305 315
    18/09/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.467
    18/09/14 12:30 A US House Starts 1040 1093
    18/09/14 12:30 A US House Permits 1045 1057
    18/09/14 12:45 A FRB Yellen Washington n/a n/a
    18/09/14 14:00 A US Philly Fed 23 28
    18/09/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 92


    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

    See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.



    John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of Global-View.com. He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
    Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved

     

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    Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

    Thu 14 Dec
    23:50 JP- Tankan Survey

    Mon 18 Dec
    10:00 EZ- final HICP
    Tue 19 Dec
    09:00 DE- IFO Survey
    13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
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    Wed 20 Dec
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    13:30 US- GDP
    Fri 22 Dec
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    13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
    15:00 US- New Homes Sales
    15:00 US- final University of Michigan
    17:00 US- early Closes
    Mon 25 Dec
    00:00 Christmas Holidays

    Forex Trading Outlook


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    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision


    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --23:50-- JP- Tankan Survey
    John M. Bland, MBA
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