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Monday August 22, 2005 - 11:47:12 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• JPY pushing higher after poll shows Koizumi’s popularity climbing.

• USD consolidating, no data to look to today…

• Canadian June retail sales due, likely to reboundafter the weakness in May.

Market Outlook

A new poll over the weekend showed further signs that PM Koizumi’s popularity is rising and that has helped to bolster the JPY. The Yomiuri newspaper reported that the cabinet had an approval rating of 53.2%, up 5.5% from two weeks ago when Koizumi called the election, helping the Nikkei and Topix indices to push to their highest levels since 2001. The timing of flows should also be supportive in the short term, as domestic investors hold back on foreign purchases before the first half of the fiscal year ends in September. USD-JPY cleared 110 this morning, with risk of an extension back to 109.35, even last week’s 109 low as the JPY continues to gain. A break there would highlight potential to 108.15. EUR-JPY cleared the 133.75 retracement level, leaving 133.50 and 132.85 open on the day.

Meanwhile, the EUR-USD is holding relatively steady this morning, despite an FT Deutschland story that the IMF is planning to revise down its forecast for Eurozone economic growth to 1.3%. This is apparently due to the weak state of Italy's economy in particular, and to on-going high oil prices. The EUR-USD is consolidating just below 1.22 this morning and a break of Friday’s 1.2127 low would be needed to get excited about a look at the 1.21 next. With little economic data to give the market impetus though, it is quite possible that the USD will simply drift today. A break of 1.22 would allow a short term pullback to 1.2260. The EUR-GBP cross is rebounding intraday, after testing 0.6765 briefly on the downside. For choice, potential remains for an extension towards the 0.6750-0.6735 area later. The 0.6800 area should cap corrective upticks.

The Eurozone current account narrowed to €2.1bn in June on a non seasonally adjusted basis, following a deficit of €3.1bn in May. There was little market impact.

Day Ahead
Canada – retail sales for June are due. The market is betting on a rebound after weakness in May. Retail sales fell 1.3% in May, the first decline this year, while ex-auto retail sales dipped 0.4% as incentives were scaled back. However, in spite of the pullback in May, cumulative sales in the first five months of the year were still running 6.9% above the same period in 2004. The July CPI data is due for release on Friday. Neither release should be a deterrent to the BoC, with which looks set to hike rates on September 7, in the first of three successive 25bp moves… While the USD has bounced versus the CAD recently the 1.22 area seems to be acting as an effective cap, firm data today would reinforce potential for a later dip towards 1.18.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

CA Retail sales (Jun) m/m 08.30 +1.2%
CA Retail sales ex-autos (Jun) m/m 08.30 +0.4%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
EU Current account (Jun) -3.1bn last
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

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