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RISK-OFF: Wednesday FOMC Meeting and Scotland Referendum Thursday

RISK-OFF: Wednesday FOMC Meeting and Scotland Referendum Thursday
 September 16, 2014 09:30 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
Markets appear to be picking up following a mixed German ZEW survey today. Traders are in more of a RISK-OFF posture ahead of the Fed policy decision tomorrow. Sentiment about the Fed seem to be taking a more neutral posture on forward interest policy guidance. The close Scottish independence vote is Thursday.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower. The 10-yr bund is 1.04%, -3.0bp. Peripheral bond yields are up.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.52% -2bp. BOE Gov Carney has signaled a Spring 2015 rate hike. The Scotland vote is Thursday.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.586%,  -0.5bp. Psychological pivot is 2.50%.
  • Far East equities closed lower. Bourses in Europe are mostly weaker. U.S. share futures are  lower.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    • August U.K. inflation data were dead in line with market expectations and should have no impact on expectations for a Spring BOE rate hike.
    • The September German ZEW Survey were mixed with the current conditions index falling sharply while future expectation eased only slightly.
    •  U.S. PPI and TIC flows are due later..
    • Recent Polls on the Scottish independence referendum are mixed but the latest  put the pro-independence vote at around 48%, and the no vote at about 52%. It is still to close to call.
    • There is talk the FOMC could drop its "extended time period" from its policy statement next week. That could signal a move the timing of the first rate hike to early 2015. Rate hikes are likely to be gradual.
    • On Wednesday, U.K. employment, final EZ HICP and U.S. CPI data are due. The FOMC decision s awaited as well.
    • Thursday sees the Scottish Independence referendum, UK Retail Sales and U.S. Housing Starts. The major Item on Friday is Canadian CPI data. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
    Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
    8:30 GB CPI  & RPI-X   Inflation key to BOE policy
    9:00 DE ZEW Survey- Key Sentiment Survey
    13:00 US TIC Net Flows  U.S. International Capital Flows
    0:30 JP Trade Japan big exporter
    8:30 GB Unemployment  top growth measure
    8:30 GB BOE Minutes  BOE Policy statement
    9:00 EZ Final Inflation key to ECB policy
    12:30 US Current Account widest trade measure
    12:30 US CPI  key Fed target
    18:00 FRB Fed Rates & Press Conference Fed policy decision THURSDAY
    Scotland Referendum
    7:30 CH SNB Swiss Monetary policy decision
    8:30 GB Ret Sls U.K. consumer demand mm  
    12:30 US Initial Claims weekly U.S. jobs data
    12:30 US House Starts key housing statistic
    12:45 FRB Yellen Washington post-meeting speech
    14:00 US Philly Fed regional sentiment survey
    12:30 CA CPI top BOC policy target

    Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
    16/09/14 12:30 B US PPI core 0.10% 0.10%
    16/09/14 12:30 B US PPI 0.10% 0.10%
    16/09/14 13:00 A US TIC Net Flows $b n/a n/a
    16/09/14 13:00 B US TIC L-T Flows Mar n/a -18.7
    16/09/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
    17/09/14 0:00 WEDNESDAY
    17/09/14 0:30 A JP Trade JPYb -1028 -964
    17/09/14 8:30 A GB ILO Unemploy 6.30% 6.40%
    17/09/14 8:30 A GB Avg Earn x-bonus 0.70% 0.60%
    17/09/14 8:30 A GB Avg Earn + bonus 0.50% -0.20%
    17/09/14 8:30 A GB Claimant Count k Mar -30 -33.6
    17/09/14 8:30 A GB BOE Minutes n/a n/a
    17/09/14 9:00 A EZ HICP mm 0.10% 0.30%
    17/09/14 9:00 A EZ HICP yy 0.30% 0.30%
    17/09/14 9:00 A EZ HICP core y 0.90% 0.90%
    17/09/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
    17/09/14 12:30 A US Current Account -113.8 -111.2
    17/09/14 12:30 A US CPI m 0.00% 0.10%
    17/09/14 12:30 A US CPI yy 1.90% 2.00%
    17/09/14 12:30 A US core CPI m 0.20% 0.10%
    17/09/14 12:30 A US core CPI yy 1.90% 1.90%
    17/09/14 14:00 B US NAHB Index 56 55
    17/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a -0.97
    17/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a 2.38
    17/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Distillate mn n/a -4.09
    17/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 93.90%
    17/09/14 18:00 A FRB Fed Rates 0.25% 0.25%
    17/09/14 18:30 A FRB Press Conference n/a n/a
    18/09/14 0:00 THURSDAY
    18/09/14 0:00 GB Scotland Referendum n/a n/a
    18/09/14 7:30 A CH SNB 0.00% 0.00%
    18/09/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls mm 0.40% 0.10%
    18/09/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls yy 4.00% 2.60%
    18/09/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls x-fuel mm 0.30% 0.50%
    18/09/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls X-fuel yy 4.80% 3.40%
    18/09/14 10:00 B GB CBI Ind Output Trends n/a 31
    18/09/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 305 315
    18/09/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.467
    18/09/14 12:30 A US House Starts 1040 1093
    18/09/14 12:30 A US House Permits 1045 1057
    18/09/14 12:45 A FRB Yellen Washington n/a n/a
    18/09/14 14:00 A US Philly Fed 23 28
    18/09/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 92
    19/09/14 0:00 FRIDAY
    19/09/14 12:30 A CA BOC CPI Apr y 1.70% 1.70%
    19/09/14 12:30 A CA CPI mm 0.00% -0.20%
    19/09/14 12:30 A CA CPI yy 2.10% 2.10%
    19/09/14 14:00 B US Lead Ind 0.40% 0.90%
    19/09/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

    See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

    John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
    Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved


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