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MIXED RISK into Wednesday 's FOMC Meeting. The Scotland Referendum is on Thursday

MIXED RISK into Wednesday 's FOMC Meeting. The Scotland Referendum is on Thursday
 September 17, 2014 00:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
Markets have been drifting into a MIXED RISK posture as some appear appear to be reconsidering what signals the FOMC will be sending on Wednesday. Today saw another weak German ZEW Survey today. U.K. inflation data were in line. The closely contested Scottish independence vote is Thursday.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are now mixed. The 10-yr bund is 1.06%, -1.0bp. Peripheral bond yields are mixed to higher.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.53% -1bp. BOE Gov Carney has signaled a Spring 2015 rate hike. The Scotland vote is Thursday.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.580%,  -1.10bp. Psychological pivot is 2.50%.
  • Far East equities closed lower. Bourses in Europe is closing weaker. U.S. shares are roughly steady.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Trade, GB- Unemployment, EZ- HICP, Current Account, CPI, FOMC
  • On Wednesday, U.K. employment, final EZ HICP, and U.S. CPI data are due. The FOMC decision s awaited as well.
  • August U.K. inflation data were dead in line with market expectations and should have no impact on expectations for a Spring BOE rate hike.
  • The September German ZEW Survey were mixed with the current conditions index falling sharply while future expectation eased only slightly.
  • Recent Polls on the Scottish independence referendum are mixed but the latest  put the pro-independence vote at around 48%, and the no vote at about 52%. It is still to close to call.
  • There is talk the FOMC could drop its "extended time period" from its policy statement next week. That could signal a move the timing of the first rate hike to early 2015. Rate hikes are likely to be gradual.
  • Thursday sees the Scottish Independence referendum, UK Retail Sales and U.S. Housing Starts. The major Item on Friday is Canadian CPI data. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
0:30 JP Trade Japan big exporter
8:30 GB Unemployment  top growth measure
8:30 GB BOE Minutes  BOE Policy statement
9:00 EZ Final Inflation key to ECB policy
12:30 US Current Account widest trade measure
12:30 US CPI  key Fed target
18:00 FRB Fed Rates & Press Conference Fed policy decision THURSDAY
Scotland Referendum
7:30 CH SNB Swiss Monetary policy decision
8:30 GB Ret Sls U.K. consumer demand mm  
12:30 US Initial Claims weekly U.S. jobs data
12:30 US House Starts key housing statistic
12:45 FRB Yellen Washington post-meeting speech
14:00 US Philly Fed regional sentiment survey
12:30 CA CPI top BOC policy target

Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
16/09/14 20:00 A US TIC Net Flows $b n/a n/a
16/09/14 20:00 B US TIC L-T Flows Mar n/a -18.7
16/09/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
17/09/14 0:00 A WEDNESDAY
17/09/14 0:30 A JP Trade JPYb -1028 -964
17/09/14 8:30 A GB ILO Unemploy 6.30% 6.40%
17/09/14 8:30 A GB Avg Earn x-bonus 0.70% 0.60%
17/09/14 8:30 A GB Avg Earn + bonus 0.50% -0.20%
17/09/14 8:30 A GB Claimant Count k Mar -30 -33.6
17/09/14 8:30 A GB BOE Minutes n/a n/a
17/09/14 9:00 A EZ HICP mm 0.10% 0.30%
17/09/14 9:00 A EZ HICP yy 0.30% 0.30%
17/09/14 9:00 A EZ HICP core y 0.90% 0.90%
17/09/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
17/09/14 12:30 A US Current Account -113.8 -111.2
17/09/14 12:30 A US CPI m 0.00% 0.10%
17/09/14 12:30 A US CPI yy 1.90% 2.00%
17/09/14 12:30 A US core CPI m 0.20% 0.10%
17/09/14 12:30 A US core CPI yy 1.90% 1.90%
17/09/14 14:00 B US NAHB Index 56 55
17/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a -0.97
17/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a 2.38
17/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Distillate mn n/a -4.09
17/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 93.90%
17/09/14 18:00 A FRB Fed Rates 0.25% 0.25%
17/09/14 18:30 A FRB Press Conference n/a n/a
18/09/14 0:00 A THURSDAY
18/09/14 0:00 GB Scotland Referendum n/a n/a
18/09/14 7:30 A CH SNB 0.00% 0.00%
18/09/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls mm 0.40% 0.10%
18/09/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls yy 4.00% 2.60%
18/09/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls x-fuel mm 0.30% 0.50%
18/09/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls X-fuel yy 4.80% 3.40%
18/09/14 10:00 B GB CBI Ind Output Trends n/a 31
18/09/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 305 315
18/09/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.467
18/09/14 12:30 A US House Starts 1040 1093
18/09/14 12:30 A US House Permits 1045 1057
18/09/14 12:45 A FRB Yellen Washington n/a n/a
18/09/14 14:00 A US Philly Fed 23 28
18/09/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 92
19/09/14 0:00 A FRIDAY
19/09/14 12:30 A CA BOC CPI Apr y 1.70% 1.70%
19/09/14 12:30 A CA CPI mm 0.00% -0.20%
19/09/14 12:30 A CA CPI yy 2.10% 2.10%
19/09/14 14:00 B US Lead Ind 0.40% 0.90%
19/09/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved


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Mon 19 Feb 2018
00:00 CN, US- Holiday
Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday
A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey
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00:00 CN- Holiday
A All Day flash PMIs
A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
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A 09:30 GB- GDP
AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales
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Fri 23 Feb 2018
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AA 13:30 CA- CPI

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