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MIXED RISK into FOMC Decision. Scotland Referendum Still Too Close to Call

MIXED RISK into FOMC Decision. Scotland Referendum Still Too Close to Call
 September 17, 2014 09:30 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
Markets are in a MIXED RISK posture heading into the FOMC decision later today and the Scottish referendum vote tomorrow. Many are focused on an WSJ article by Jon Hilsenrath predicting no change the the "extended time period"  by the Fed today. Also latest polls favor a no vote in Scotland tomorrow but the vote is still to close to call.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mixed. The 10-yr bund is 1.06%, 0.0bp. Peripheral bond yields are higher.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.51% -2bp. BOE Gov Carney has signaled a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.57%,  -0.9bp. Psychological pivot is 2.50%.
  • Far East equities closed mixed . Bourses in Europe are higher. U.S. share futures are steady.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS:US- Current Account, CPI, FOMC
    • U.K. July/August employment data were stronger than street estimates and there were no surprises in the latest BOE Meeting Minutes released today. th main focus of attention is the Scottish independence vote tomorrow.
    • Final EZ August HICP data saw the headline figure revised slightly higher
    •  U.S. CPI  and 2Q14 Current Account data are due. The FOMC decision is awaited as well.
    • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
    • Recent Polls on the Scottish independence referendum are mixed but the latest put the pro-independence vote at around 48%, and the no vote at about 52%. It is still to close to call.
    • Thursday sees the Scottish Independence referendum, UK Retail Sales and U.S. Housing Starts. The major Item on Friday is Canadian CPI data. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
    Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
    0:30 JP Trade Japan big exporter
    8:30 GB Unemployment  top growth measure
    8:30 GB BOE Minutes  BOE Policy statement
    9:00 EZ Final Inflation key to ECB policy
    12:30 US Current Account widest trade measure
    12:30 US CPI  key Fed target
    18:00 FRB Fed Rates & Press Conference Fed policy decision THURSDAY
    Scotland Referendum
    7:30 CH SNB Swiss Monetary policy decision
    8:30 GB Ret Sls U.K. consumer demand mm  
    12:30 US Initial Claims weekly U.S. jobs data
    12:30 US House Starts key housing statistic
    12:45 FRB Yellen Washington post-meeting speech
    14:00 US Philly Fed regional sentiment survey
    12:30 CA CPI top BOC policy target

    Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
    17/09/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
    17/09/14 12:30 A US Current Account -113.8 -111.2
    17/09/14 12:30 A US CPI m 0.00% 0.10%
    17/09/14 12:30 A US CPI yy 1.90% 2.00%
    17/09/14 12:30 A US core CPI m 0.20% 0.10%
    17/09/14 12:30 A US core CPI yy 1.90% 1.90%
    17/09/14 14:00 B US NAHB Index 56 55
    17/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a -0.97
    17/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a 2.38
    17/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Distillate mn n/a -4.09
    17/09/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 93.90%
    17/09/14 18:00 A FRB Fed Rates 0.25% 0.25%
    17/09/14 18:30 A FRB Press Conference n/a n/a
    18/09/14 0:00 A THURSDAY
    18/09/14 0:00 GB Scotland Referendum n/a n/a
    18/09/14 7:30 A CH SNB 0.00% 0.00%
    18/09/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls mm 0.40% 0.10%
    18/09/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls yy 4.00% 2.60%
    18/09/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls x-fuel mm 0.30% 0.50%
    18/09/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls X-fuel yy 4.80% 3.40%
    18/09/14 10:00 B GB CBI Ind Output Trends n/a 31
    18/09/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 305 315
    18/09/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.467
    18/09/14 12:30 A US House Starts 1040 1093
    18/09/14 12:30 A US House Permits 1045 1057
    18/09/14 12:45 A FRB Yellen Washington n/a n/a
    18/09/14 14:00 A US Philly Fed 23 28
    18/09/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 92
    19/09/14 0:00 A FRIDAY
    19/09/14 12:30 A CA BOC CPI Apr y 1.70% 1.70%
    19/09/14 12:30 A CA CPI mm 0.00% -0.20%
    19/09/14 12:30 A CA CPI yy 2.10% 2.10%
    19/09/14 14:00 B US Lead Ind 0.40% 0.90%
    19/09/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

    See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

    John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
    Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved


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