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Wednesday September 17, 2014 - 18:54:49 GMT
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FOMC Makes No Waves. Scotland Referendum Thursday
|FOMC Makes No Waves. Scotland Referendum Thursday|
September 18, 2014 09:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map
Current Market Conditions:
Markets remain in a MIXED RISK posture heading into the FOMC decision later and the Scottish referendum vote tomorrow. Many are now expecting no change the the "extended time period" by the Fed today. Also latest polls appear to favor a no vote in Scotland tomorrow but the vote is still to close to call.
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower. The 10-yr bund is 1.05%, -1.0bp. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
- The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.52% -1bp. BOE Gov Carney has signaled a Spring 2015 rate hike.
- U.S.10-yr yield is 2.573%, -0.6bp. Psychological pivot is 2.50%.
- Far East equities closed mixed . Bourses in Europe are closing higher. U.S. shares are up.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: UK- Scotland Referendum, CH- SNB Decision, GB- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobless, Housing Starts, Yellen. Philly Fed
- There were no major surprises in the Fed policy decision.. It continued to taper its asset purchase program so that it will conclude at the October FOMC. They continued to use their "extended time period" language as most had come to expect this week. In essence they reaffirmed policy continues to be data dependant.
- Thursday sees the Scottish Independence Referendum. Opinion polls see a 52% to 48% vote against independence. Bookmakers are expecting a vote against independence as well. The vote could go either way.
- The session also features a Swiss National Bank policy decision, UK Retail Sales, U.S.weekly Jobless data , Housing Starts and the Philly Fed Survey..
- On Wednesday, U.K. July/August employment data were stronger than street estimates and there were no surprises in the latest BOE Meeting Minutes released.
- Final EZ August HICP data saw the headline figure revised slightly higher
- U.S. CPI and 2Q14 Current Account data are due. The FOMC decision is awaited as well.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
- Recent Polls on the Scottish independence referendum are mixed but the latest put the pro-independence vote at around 48%, and the no vote at about 52%. It is still to close to call.
- The major Item on Friday is Canadian CPI data. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):THURSDAY
7:30 CH SNB Swiss Monetary policy decision
8:30 GB Ret Sls U.K. consumer demand mm
12:30 US Initial Claims weekly U.S. jobs data
12:30 US House Starts key housing statistic
12:45 FRB Yellen Washington post-meeting speech
14:00 US Philly Fed regional sentiment survey
12:30 CA CPI top BOC policy target
||Ret Sls mm
||Ret Sls yy
||Ret Sls x-fuel mm
||Ret Sls X-fuel yy
||CBI Ind Output Trends
||Nat Gas bcf
||BOC CPI Apr y
Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
John M. Bland is a founding partner of Global-View.com. He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
|Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved|
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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