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FOMC Makes No Waves. Scotland Referendum Thursday

FOMC Makes No Waves. Scotland Referendum Thursday
 September 18, 2014 09:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
Markets remain in a MIXED RISK posture heading into the FOMC decision later and the Scottish referendum vote tomorrow. Many are now expecting no change the the "extended time period"  by the Fed today. Also latest polls appear to favor a no vote in Scotland tomorrow but the vote is still to close to call.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower. The 10-yr bund is 1.05%, -1.0bp. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.52% -1bp. BOE Gov Carney has signaled a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.573%,  -0.6bp. Psychological pivot is 2.50%.
  • Far East equities closed mixed . Bourses in Europe are closing higher. U.S. shares are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS:  UK- Scotland Referendum, CH- SNB Decision, GB- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobless,  Housing Starts, Yellen. Philly Fed
    • There were no major surprises in the Fed policy decision.. It continued to taper its asset purchase program so that it will conclude at the October FOMC. They continued to use their "extended time period" language as most had come to expect this week. In essence they reaffirmed policy continues to be data dependant.
    • Thursday sees the Scottish Independence Referendum. Opinion polls see a 52% to 48% vote against independence. Bookmakers are expecting a vote against independence as well. The vote could go either way.
    • The session also features a Swiss National Bank policy decision, UK Retail Sales,  U.S.weekly Jobless data , Housing Starts and the Philly Fed Survey..
    • On Wednesday, U.K. July/August employment data were stronger than street estimates and there were no surprises in the latest BOE Meeting Minutes released.
    • Final EZ August HICP data saw the headline figure revised slightly higher
    •  U.S. CPI  and 2Q14 Current Account data are due. The FOMC decision is awaited as well.
    • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
    • Recent Polls on the Scottish independence referendum are mixed but the latest put the pro-independence vote at around 48%, and the no vote at about 52%. It is still to close to call.
    •  The major Item on Friday is Canadian CPI data. Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
    Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
    Scotland Referendum
    7:30 CH SNB Swiss Monetary policy decision
    8:30 GB Ret Sls U.K. consumer demand mm  
    12:30 US Initial Claims weekly U.S. jobs data
    12:30 US House Starts key housing statistic
    12:45 FRB Yellen Washington post-meeting speech
    14:00 US Philly Fed regional sentiment survey
    12:30 CA CPI top BOC policy target

    Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
    18/09/14 0:00 GB Scotland Referendum n/a n/a
    18/09/14 7:30 A CH SNB 0.00% 0.00%
    18/09/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls mm 0.40% 0.10%
    18/09/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls yy 4.00% 2.60%
    18/09/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls x-fuel mm 0.30% 0.50%
    18/09/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls X-fuel yy 4.80% 3.40%
    18/09/14 10:00 B GB CBI Ind Output Trends n/a 31
    18/09/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 305 315
    18/09/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.467
    18/09/14 12:30 A US House Starts 1040 1093
    18/09/14 12:30 A US House Permits 1045 1057
    18/09/14 12:45 A FRB Yellen Washington n/a n/a
    18/09/14 14:00 A US Philly Fed 23 28
    18/09/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 92
    19/09/14 0:00 A FRIDAY
    19/09/14 12:30 A CA BOC CPI Apr y 1.70% 1.70%
    19/09/14 12:30 A CA CPI mm 0.00% -0.20%
    19/09/14 12:30 A CA CPI yy 2.10% 2.10%
    19/09/14 14:00 B US Lead Ind 0.40% 0.90%
    19/09/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

    See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

    John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
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