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Monday September 22, 2014 - 10:50:47 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Core Bonds open higher ahead of Draghi testimony

Mon, 22 Sep 2014 5:15 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Asian equities decline led by Shanghai (China 10-yr bond yield declines by over 5bps); China HSBC Manufacturing PMI due Monday night
- Some partially attribute weakness in Shanghai to IPO concerns
- NZD pares election induced gains; Commodity currencies track weakness in commodity prices
- ECB's Visco suggested that the current easing measures have been effective vs Euro
- Euro Zone government bond yields open generally lower ahead of Draghi testimony and amid declines in Asian gov't bond yields; Peripherals later underperform led by Spain (amid Catalonia concerns)
- Commodities led lower by copper as China continues to play down any large scale stimulus
- Tesco declines weigh on FTSE 100
- (EU) ECB's Liikanen: Reiterates growth will happen but it will be slower; prolonged periods of low inflation has a negative impact
- Italy PM office: Have freed ~30B to pay debts owed by public sector bodies to suppliers - Italian press
- Poland Central Bank Official Osiatynski (dovish): Reiterates 50bps rate cut in Oct would be very justified - Polish press
- CEQ.NO: Confirms Mitsubishi has offered NOK96/shr (14.3% premium to Friday close); total deal worth NOK8.88B

***Key Economic Data in session***
- (TW) TAIWAN AUG EXPORT ORDERS: 5.2% V 7.4%E; Export orders from China Y/Y: 2.9% v +9.2% prior
- (CH) Swiss Aug M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.5% prior

Fixed Income
- (FR) On Friday Sept 19th, Moody's affirmed France at Aa1; maintained negative outlook [contrary to press report this week that said it would downgrade to Aa2]

***Equities***
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.1%, FTSE 100 -0.6% at 6,795, DAX -0.2% at 9,778, CAC-40 -0.1% at 4,458, IBEX-35 0.1% at 11,009, FTSE MIB -0.1% at 20,960, SMI -0.3% at 8,812, S&P 500 Futures -0.5% at 1,994]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower following negative leads from Shanghai, M&A (Siemens confirms bid for Dresser-Rand, Cermaq rises on bid from Mitsubishi Corp), Weaker commodity prices weigh on mining sector, Total cut 2015 production forecast

By Sector
Consumer Discretionary [Tesco TSCO.UK -8% (possible restatements), Air France AF.FR -3% (extended strike)]
Industrials [Sulzer SUN.CH -4% (ended talks with Dresser-Rand)]
Stoxx50 sectors [Consumer Cyclical -1%, Basic Materials -0.7%, Industrials -0.6%, Basic Materials -0.6%, Energy -0.5%, Financials -0.1%; Utilities +0.7%, Telecom flat, Technology flat, Consumer Non-Cyclical flat]

*** FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES***
Currencies/Fixed Income:

- Dollar came off its highs in the Asian session, weakness carried into early European morning. USD/CHF weakened slightly while the Swissie remained unchanged against euro. Sterling rose ahead of the open. Long term Treasuries rose on traders looking for a deal. AUD/USD headed to a multi-month low with nothing in sight to reverse its course, breaking 0.8900 level. Yen remained mixed through the session finding some strength in commodity currencies.

**Looking Ahead***
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2019 Fixed Bonds
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell 2025 Bonds
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming 3-Month and 9-Month Bill auction
- 08:15 Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Aug Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index: No est v 0.39 prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:00 (EU) ECB President Draghi Testifies Before Euro Parliament Economic and Monetary Committee (Brussels)
- 09:00 (IL) Israel Central Bank Interest Rate Decision; Expected to leave Base Rate 0.25%
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Unemployment Rate (unadj): : No est v 5.5% prior; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): No est v 4.8% prior (revised from 5.2%)
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 09:45 (UK) BOE reverse auction; to purchase 1.6B in 3-7 year Gilts (residual)
- 10:00 (US) Aug Existing Home Sales: No est v 5.15M prior
- 10:00 (EU) Euro Zone Sept Advance Consumer Confidence: No est v -10.0 prior
- 10:05 (US) Fed's Dudley speaks in New York
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $ in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 12:40 (CA) BOC Dep Gov Wilkins speaks at CFA Society
- 16:00 (US) Crop Condition Report
- 21:45 (CN) China HSBC Sept Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: No est v 50.2 prior



 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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